The NBA MVP Race Isn't Even Close: LeBron James' Historic Season Leads the Pack

I’ll keep this simple. 

There’s been a lot of debate about the 2009 NBA MVP. Is it LeBron, D-Wade, or Kobe?

Look, get real—objectively, by the numbers, it’s not even close. It’s LeBron by a mile, and Wade and Bryant aren’t even in the running for runner-up. 

The MVP is the player who does the most to generate wins for his team during the regular season, plain and simple. That can be measured. 

LeBron has accounted for 27.9 percent of Cleveland’s overall statistical production, or OSP (and yes, I’m counting everything—scoring, rebounding, assists, blocks, steals, turnovers, and shooting percentages). 

Cleveland’s current winning percentage projects to a finish of 67 or 68 wins (67.8 is the current projection). 

So LeBron’s 27.9 percent share of Cleveland’s 67.8 projected wins would give him 18.85 win-credits.

If he does indeed finish that way, it will be the most win-credits earned by any player in 37 years (when Kareem Abdul-Jabbar earned 19.60 win-credits), and it will be the fifth highest number of win-credits in NBA history (Wilt Chamberlain in that famous 1967 season with the Philadelphia 76ers earned 21.35 win-credits, the most ever in a regular season).

Only Chamberlain (twice), Abdul-Jabbar, and George Mikan (in a shorter NBA season) have ever earned more than 18.85 regular season win-credits.  We are watching a historic season, folks.

I’m just pointing out the facts. 

As for the runner-ups:

Chris Paul currently projects to the second highest win-credits at 14.75, and he will not be passed, just as he has no chance of catching LeBron. 

Dwight Howard projects to 13.87 win-credits, and he is also unlikely to be passed. 

Kobe does finally come in at fourth with a projected 12.47 win credits, just ahead of his teammate Pau Gasol at 12.28 win-credits. (It’s true folks: Kobe accounts for 19.4 percent of the Lakers’ OSP, and they currently project to 64.3 wins.  I’ll let you all do the math.) 

Finally, we get to D-Wade at 11.82 projected win-credits, sixth highest overall (Miami just won’t have enough wins, projecting to 43.2, though Wade does account for a high 27.3 percent of their statistical production). 

Wade is a great player having a great season,  as well as Kobe, but there is no way they can claim the MVP, nor can anyone but LeBron, who is having an MVP season like few of us have ever seen (deal with it).

It’s an MVP season never matched by Jordan, Shaq, Magic, or Bird, among so many others.

Below is the breakdown:

		This Season
Year	MVP	Player	TM	OSP/G	ProjWins	%OSP	ProjWCr
2009	1	LeBron James	CLE	36.1	67.6	27.9	18.85
2009	2	Chris Paul	NOH	36.7	51.7	28.5	14.75
2009	3	Dwight Howard	ORL	29.8	61.8	22.5	13.87
2009	4	Kobe Bryant	LAL	27.1	64.3	19.4	12.47
2009	5	Pau Gasol	LAL	27.0	64.3	19.1	12.28
2009	6	Dwyane Wade	MIA	34.0	43.2	27.3	11.82
		All-Time
Year	MVP	Player	TM	OSP/G	Wins	%OSP	WinCr
1967	1	Wilt Chamberlain	PHI	52.8	68	31.4	21.35
1950	2	George Mikan	MNL	18.0	51	39.7	20.23
1972	3	Kareem Abdul-Jabbar	MIL	45.3	63	31.1	19.60
1968	4	Wilt Chamberlain	PHI	50.9	62	31.2	19.34
2009	5	LeBron James (projected)	CLE	36.1	67.6	27.9	18.85
1949	6	George Mikan	MNL	20.2	44	41.3	18.18