2008 NBA Draft: Cleveland Cavaliers Analysis, Pt. 1

As the Cleveland Cavaliers coast, or rather, sputter towards the 4th seed in the Eastern Conference following a huge deadline trade, Cleveland fans like myself have to wonder what their next major roster move will be.

It won't be long before the 2008 NBA Draft is upon us, and with the Cavs on track to win around 45 games, it's very likely that their first round pick could end up in the top 20. Picking in the high teens probably doesn't sound like a big deal to most people, but this draft is looking deeper with each passing game of the NCAA tournament. For Cleveland, first round picks have been a rarity in recent years. Thanks to previous GMs trading away pick after future pick, Danny Ferry has had just one shot at a first-rounder since beginning his tenure in 2005.

To trade or not to trade?

Especially since the Cavs have missed out on the first round so often lately, it's crucial that they do not trade this pick. The Cavs got marginally better after the deadline trade, but they also got older. They need more talented youth to balance out their roster. Unless they get an offer involving a truly great player or an opportunity to trade up in the draft, they should avoid trading this pick at all costs.

What position?

Some people might look at the Cavaliers' roster and think, "They still need a point guard," and though there may be some truth in that, it's not the position they need to draft for. As deep as this draft is getting to be, there simply won't be a NBA-starting quality point guard available as low as the Cavs will be picking.

The Cavs should not be drafting for immediate impact, but rather for the not-so-far-off future when their aging frontcourt begins to really show its age. Finding an eventual replacement for franchise center Zydrunas Ilgauskas should be their mission. Ilgauskas, currently the Cavs' second leading scorer, will be turning 33 in June. After having gone through surgery on both feet earlier in his career, it's a wonder how he's still playing 30 minutes per game. Just this past month he missed several games due to a bulging disc in his back. You don't need a crystal ball to see that Big Z will be lucky to keep up his current pace in the two seasons that remain on his contract after this one, after which he will likely retire and watch his number 11 be hung in the rafters of Quicken Loans Arena.

Though Cleveland's frontcourt currently looks like one of the deepest in the NBA, its future looks grim.

The Cavs have tried (and failed) a few times to get a replacement for Ilgauskas. One of Ferry's first moves as GM in 2005 was to trade for Martynas Andriuskevicius (try saying that three times fast). It didn't take long to see that "Marty," as he's often referred to, wasn't going to pan out into much. It's beginning to look much the same for Dwayne Jones, the third string Center whom the Cavaliers have been trying to mold into an NBA player for the past couple years.

Anderson Varejao shows glimpses of potential to someday be a starter at the 5, but issues over his contract could lead to his exit from Cleveland in the next year or two. Then there's Ben Wallace, who seems to have lost much of his explosiveness over the years and, like Ilgauskas, has been struggling with back problems recently. If there's any place where Cleveland needs more youth on their roster, it's in the frontcourt.

The choice is quite clear. The Cavs need to draft a center, preferably one that they can develop to help fill the big shoes of Zydrunas Ilgauskas within the next few years.

Then it's just a matter of who...

Check out Part 2 of Matt's series on the Cavaliers Draft Strategy