How to Win Your March Madness Pool

For the first time in my history, I won a pool.

For the first time in any one’s history, I won the pool prior to the final week. (Bold statement, I know.)

I have run our office pool for seven years now and never won.

Considering I am the lone basketball player among football meatheads, that is not saying much.

Unfortunately, that is not the pool I won this year.

I also entered two massive pools run by friends that would allow me to retire before I reach 30 if I were to win won of those. Nope, did not win those either.

No, the pool I won is a no-entry fee, no-prize family pool. Fortunately, the pool I won contains that largest bunch of trash talkers known to man. Even the women of the group love to trash talk (probably why most of the men married them).

But now the inquisition begins:

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“How did you wrap it up with a week to go?” -Todd
“Can I be as cool as you?” -Michael
And my favorite from little Rob, “Can I have some tips on winning?”

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Well, Rob, let me clue you into my thought process while filling out my bracket.

First, a fact

Underdogs don’t win the tournament. Every year in the pool I run, after the tournament is over, I throw in a bracket picking all favorites against everyone else’s picks. While the “favorites” bracket does never beat the best bracket, it almost always finishes in the top 10%.

Second, an emotional hedge

Never fill out a bracket picking your favorite team to get upset. There is nothing worse than your team winning while your bracket suffers. I’ve heard people say it’s an emotional hedge. In other words they will be happy if their team wins, but they’ll win money if their team loses. Yeah, right. A true fan will never be happy when their team loses, no matter the price.

Third, avoiding an emotional Texas hedge

Do not pick your team to win the whole thing, especially if many other people in your pool are from the same area (and thus cheering for the same team). You will be plenty happy that your team won it all if that were to occur. It’s not worth the few bucks extra to be the only person in the pool to pick your team to win it all. Worse case, send your team one extra round if you truly think they are a good team.*

Fourth, a note on NCAA cyclical talent rotation

Winning teams lose more players than average to the NBA. Losing teams or smaller programs usually tend to be able to grow players longer just to have a shot at beating the big teams with young superstar talent.

This year we saw winning teams from the last couple of years (UNC, Pitt, etc.) who did not lose players to the pros that could have gone (Hansbrough, etc.). That is a huge advantage. They got the young superstars AND had the senior leadership. This is the reason for so many high seeds in the Sweet 16 this year.

So, how do I put my brackets together?

Work backwards. Start with a bracket of every favorite winning. Then go through and pick the few teams in the first round that you think could win an upset. Pick a couple upsets in the second round or third round.

Also, try not to pick two upsets in the same week one-regional. Then those two upsets will be playing and force you to pick another upset, while in all reality, one of your first picks probably did not win and thus your upset is actually playing a much tougher team that your second round matchup is currently indicating.

In the Final Four, stick to No. 1 and No. 2 seeds to win it all. If a No. 3 seed or lower wins it, there is a good chance that nobody picked that anyway, so you could still win without calling the ultimate winner.

Lastly, the tie-breaker

The average point total by all NCAA teams this year was 68.4 points. Thus, a total score average of all games was 136.8. Keep your numbers around that level…the law of averages will help in the long run.

PS: I did not follow my third rule this year. I sent UW two extra rounds instead of one. However, of all teams in the entire country, I can never knowingly pick UConn to beat UW. And, no, I will never go to UConn Business School, even if it was free.