Do Fastbreak Points Equal Warrior Wins?
Most casual NBA fans are aware that the Golden State Warriors are annually one of the top fastbreak scoring teams in the league. In fact, this year the Warriors are the league leaders, surpassing perennial fastbreak leader Phoenix.
One would think that leading the league in fastbreak points would equal a large tally in the win column, but judging by the Warriors record that is certainly not the case.
This begs to ask the question whether the Warriors are in fact the league’s most capable fastbreak scoring team, or whether they simply lead in that category because of their scattered and irrational playing style. It is quite possible that there are teams in the NBA, the Hawks, Suns, and Blazers come to mind, that are much better suited to scoring on the fastbreak but choose not to emphasize that element of their game.
To explore this dilemma I thought it would be interesting to keep a running tally of how many games the Warriors won when they outscored their opponent on the fastbreak. The reason behind this being that although the Warriors may lead the league in fastbreak points, it’s possible that when their opponents engage in the same open style they are actually better at it than Golden State is. What I found was quite interesting.
The Warriors have outscored their opponents on the fastbreak in 39 of their 72 regular season games so far. Of those 39 games they have won 13, good for a 33% winning percentage.
The Warriors have been outscored by their opponents on the fastbreak in 31 of their 72 regular season games so far. Of those 31 games they have won 10, good for a 32% winning percentage.
There were two games in which the Warriors and their opponents had an equal tally on fastbreak points which is why my game totals only add up to 70.
What does this mean? It essentially means that the Warriors are built as a self proclaimed run-and-gun team, yet they managed to win almost exactly the same amount of the time whether the fastbreak worked or not. I guarantee you if you ran similar statistics for the mid-2000s Suns teams that would not be the case.
This also means that although the Warriors do lead the league in fastbreak points at 18.2 a game, their opponents notched a comparable 17.1 on the nights that they played the Warriors.
Why does this happen? Defense.
The Warriors don’t play it and everyone knows it. You can’t be a one dimensional team when you don’t have the sheer talent to overwhelm opponents with your offensive strategy. The glory day Suns were better at the fast break than the Warriors ever have been, or likely ever will be, and they never won a championship.
Since the Warriors fast break points are essentially the same as their opponents, how are they losing? The answer is points in the paint. Although the Warriors have a slight advantage on the break, to date this season they have averaged a mere 43.5 points in the paint compared to their opponents whopping 49.3. This number wouldn’t be so alarming if the Warriors were vastly outscoring their opponents on the break, but the simple truth is that they aren’t.
Essentially, Don Nelson has built a run-and-gun team that is mediocre on the fastbreak, and abysmal in the paint. I’m sorry to say it, but I think it’s time for Nellie to put on his Hawaiian shirt and call it a career. It’s painfully obvious that the NBA game has passed him by.
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