It's 11:59 PM . . . . and Arizona Was Not Very "Cinderella-Ish" Anyway

In an attempt to fulfill the role of "Cinderella" in this year's NCAA Tournament, the Arizona Wildcats will take their "non-Cinderella" resume of a National Championship, Final Four appearances, and 24-year NCAA-streak into the Sweet 16 against the mighty Louisville Cardinals. 

The problem for the Wildcats is that not only are they the exact opposite of a Cinderella, but they also have about as tough a matchup as they could get with Pitino's crew.

Since I am a Pac-10 dude, I will look at this matchup from the Wildcats' side, a perspective that is often hard to find since the nation loves them some Louisville.

Arizona has gotten to this point by beating two teams that they were clearly better than. They had, matchup-wise, a perfect path to the Sweet 16. 

Arizona is a talented, explosive team that can beat just about anybody, but excels against teams with ordinary players who may not be the best athletes.  Hill and Budinger can dominate teams with average jumpers and smaller scorers.

Louisville, unfortunately for the Wildcats, is not one of these teams.

This is where the Wildcats' run ends with a giant thud.  Louisville is the worst type of team for Arizona to draw.  Now, like I mentioned earlier, Arizona is capable of beating just about anybody on a given night, but Louisville will target Arizona's weaknesses and attack them there, eventually ripping them apart.

Arizona is a very skilled team.  However, they are not deep.  Also, they tend to play lazy for large portions of the game.  Sometimes they can get away with this against teams with fewer skilled players or teams that are hard-pressed to score.  Arizona's zone demands a lot of consistent commitment from every player, something that Arizona has not had on a steady basis throughout the year.

Louisville is deep AND skilled.  Arizona will be hard-pressed to match their enthusiasm or their energy level.  I think that Louisville will try and go right at the Wildcats and force the action from the get go.  I expect Louisville to jump out to a fast start possibly never look back.

Arizona PG Nic Wise is a very good player, but has a tendency to get frustrated. When he does, he gets a little over-aggressive and will pick up fouls on both ends of the floor.  Once that happened, Arizona is in huge trouble.  Coach Pitino will certainly get guys in Wise's face right off the bat and see if they can get him off his game and get some early fouls.

Chase Budinger is an exceptional athlete, but will never be able to shake that "California beach volleyball" player tag that he has, and probably for good reason.  If you get very physical with him, he will tend to float around the perimeter and not slash to the basket, which is where he is most dangerous. 

The Cards will probably body-up on him and maybe even waste a rough foul or two on him early on to see if they can force him from getting comfortable in the paint.  If they can get in his head, he will turn into a 6'7 jump shooter, which is exactly what he can't do if Arizona is going to win.

Jordan Hill is an interior force, but is not a swift post player.  I would expect Louisville to double him quickly every time he gets the ball down low and force him to give it up.  He has had foul trouble, too, often because the Arizona perimeter defense is not tenacious by any means and when guys get to the hoop, Hill is forced to challenge a lot of shots and thus pick up fouls along the way.

Outside of these three, Arizona has a lot of ordinary role players.  Obviously, Pitino knows this and will draw up a game plan to try and harass the Arizona "Big 3" as much as possible with his deep bench of super-athletic players. 

I think that Arizona will not be able to handle these waves of aggressive defenders. They will fall into bad habits where they are thinking more about getting down the floor on offense rather than playing committed defense.

I believe there is a very good chance that Louisville gets out fast and never looks back in this game.  I think that Arizona might not even know what hit them and this one will be a 'boat race'. 

Louisville is the aggressor and dominates the style of play, opening a double-digit, first-half lead and buries the Wildcats in the second half of their way to an easy victory.  The clocks strikes midnight and the tournament is left with only single-digit seeds as we go into the Elite Eight weekend.

Arizona can take pride in being the second to last Pac-10 team playing (how wonderful is the "new" world of postseason college basketball where we get the 6th place, 8th place, and 9th place teams in the Pac-10 still playing in late March when the three teams finished the season with a combined record of 48-43) and can start their "national" coach search and throw Hill and Budinger nice Lottery parties for the upcoming draft.