Michigan State-Kansas Sweet 16 Creature vs. Creature Preview

Brandon Bohning

I was asked to write a joint article with one of the top Michigan State writers, Greg Eno, previewing our two teams' second meeting of the season in Indianapolis on Friday in the third round of the NCAA tournament.

Kansas comes into the game after beating a tough North Dakota State team who was making their first appearance in the tournament and easily beating Dayton in the second round.

Kansas and Michigan State now square off in a rematch of their Jan. 10 game that saw the Spartans prevail 75-62.

That was the Jayhawks final non-conference game of the regular season. After getting back to Lawrence feeling their wounds, Sherron Collins called a "players-only" meeting at a local restaurant to hash out the team's problems.

The team responded, going a staggering 14-2 in conference play, even capturing the Big 12 title. I must say "staggering" because this is a defending National Championship team that lost all five starters from last season.

Likewise, Michigan State finished with a 15-3 conference record, 1st in the Big 10 regular standings.

Kansas sits 27-7 a record while Michigan State bests them by one game, sitting at 28-6. However, both teams are not playing for the best record in Indianapolis.

Greg Eno

First, let me say that I forgive Brandon Bohning. It's certainly not his fault that he's misguided in his view of Friday's Regional Semifinal matchup between Michigan State and Kansas. It's not his fault that he underestimates the bad karma that is zeroing in on the Jayhawks.

Time to turn on the wayback machine...

It's 1986, and it's the Sweet Sixteen. The Spartans and the Jayhawks are tussling in Kemper Arena in Kansas City. MSU is led by All-American Scott Skiles at the point.

Kansas features forward and Player of the Decade in the Big Eight (Now, Big 12), Danny Manning. Both teams are national powers. Kansas, in fact, would win the National Championship two years later.

The game is nip and tuck, and goes down to the final minutes.

Then the clock operator rears his head.

Inexplicably (yeah, right!), the clock froze for some 17-20 seconds as Kansas was mounting a comeback.

This leads the officials to lose track of time, and after some confusion, the clock is repaired and an arbitrary amount of time is fixed on it. The teams are told to play on. It's suspected that the Jayhawks, playing in neighboring Missouri, were served a little almost-home cooking.

They come back and tie the game with the phantom time afforded them, and they beat the Spartans in overtime.

Time for a little payback.

Brandon and I will now answer the six questions that we mutually agreed upon asking about this game.

Not surprisingly, we have different teams winning.

SIX BURNING QUESTIONS

Does the January 10 meeting hold any meaning now?

Brandon:

I'd say it carries little weight.  This Jayhawks team has little in common with the team that was handily beaten in East Lansing.

Kansas' first-year players are much more mature, composed, and aggressive than they were in the first game against Tom Izzo's club.

Michigan State rode a wave of experience, composure, and a raucous home crowd to their 13-point victory.

When they meet at approximately 9:37 EDT on Friday night, Michigan State will have even more experience and composure, but they won't have the raucous home crowd.

While Indianapolis is closer to East Lansing than it is to Lawrence, the noise won't reverberate in a cavernous Lucas Oil Stadium like it does in the Breslin Center.

This time, the Spartan crowd will not be as influential.

Greg:

It only means as much as each coach chooses to make it.

Confused? It's not all that difficult of a theory. It's like "playoff experience"—the team that has it naturally wants to think it's a factor. The more inexperienced team likes to think it doesn't mean so much.

But the punch line here is that neither Bill Self or Tom Izzo is likely to make much of the previous meeting. Self, the losing coach, won't put much stock into it. 

Izzo, who can sometimes make "The Prince of Pessimism," Chuck Daly, look like a snake oil salesman, certainly won't put much stock into it, if at all.

Sure, it gives each coach a chance to look at some film that they normally wouldn't in the tournament—that of their team playing their next opponent—but the truth is that college basketball games in March are not at all the same as those played in January.

To whom goes the coaching edge? And if it goes one way or the other, will it play that big a role in this contest?

Brandon: 

It is hard to determine who has the coaching edge in this game. Just looking at the numbers, Self has the edge by one win. They are both 3-3 in their last six match-ups.

Both coaches have recently won National Championship. Both are great recruiters. Both tend to get the most out of their players.

All of these factors make a great coach, and these coaches have all of the intangibles. One of the biggest differences is in-game demeanor.

Tom Izzo is much more physically animated than Bill Self. You don't need to read Izzo's mouth to know exactly what emotion he is feeling. At times, he almost looks like a flailing marionette puppet.

Self is a relatively cool guy. He rarely gets on the officials; however, when he does, he's intense. But he typically expresses his frustrations to his team. If he doesn't like what he sees, he'll call a time out and scream until he's purple.

I'd say both carry so many of the intangibles and the exact same level of intensity, even though it gets expressed in different way.

The coaching edge is non-existent.

Greg:

I agree with Brandon.

Bill Self and Tom Izzo?

That's like holding a deck of cards and asking, which is best: Diamonds or Hearts? Spades or Clubs?

Brandon's right; Self and Izzo have two different styles and sideline demeanours. Meaning? The two men simply take two different paths leading to the same successful ending.

No advantage here. None.

What has to happen for Kansas to win?

Brandon:

For the Jayhawks to advance to the Elite Eight, they have to put in a team effort. Not unlike the first game against the Spartans, Kansas has relied heavily on their two stars, Cole Aldrich and Sherron Collins, for points, rebounds, and assists to get past the first two rounds.

That simply cannot happen this time around. Bill Self had individual meetings with his best freshmen on Tuesday.

During those meetings, he told the Morris twins and Tyshawn Taylor that they must play with intensity and worry about the intangibles of guarding, rebounding, and intensity.

He convinced them that if they concentrate on these intangibles, scoring will come much easier.

Finally, Kansas must be patient on offense because scoring in the 70s and 80s is the only way to beat Michigan State.

In each one of their six losses, Michigan State gave up 70 points or more. Kansas has to love that statistic.

Historically, when the Jayhawks score 70 or more points there winning percentage eclipses the 95 percent mark, they simply don't lose when they score 70 points.

What has to happen for MSU to win?

Greg:

The Spartans are very athletic, which means they match up well with Kansas.

But ball movement and players moving without the ball in the half court are the real hallmark of Tom Izzo-coached teams.

If the Spartans' two main front-court players, Raymar Morgan and Goran Suton, can exert their will, and Morgan can combine with Kalin Lucas for a nifty inside/outside game, MSU will be in good shape.

But it won't be easy against the equally athletic Jayhawks.

What can absolutely NOT happen to Kansas in this game?

Brandon:

The Jayhawks must stay out of foul trouble against the Spartans. In the first meeting, Kansas had 28 personal fouls, fouling out Markieff Morris and Mario Little. That cannot happen if the Jayhawks are going to win.

Brady Morningstar will have to foul if Tyrell Reed and Tyshawn Taylor shoot terribly from behind the arc.

Morningstar may just be the catalyst for Kansas in this game. If he can somehow find his shot, Michigan State may have a tough time finding enough players to guard the Jayhawks' other three-point threats.

As I alluded to earlier, Kansas will have a tough time winning this game if it's played in the high 50s or low 60s. That is what Tom Izzo will want and the Spartans will probably come up victorious if that proves true.

What can absolutely NOT happen to MSU in this game?

Greg:

It may be strange to say this at the Sweet Sixteen level, but MSU had better hope that they don't get off to too good of a start on Friday.

Huh?

The Spartans, especially this season, are a much better team when they're engaged from beginning to end. Fast starts and early leads, particularly big ones, have often caused MSU to lose interest and focus.

The result? Opponents creep back into games.

I'm not saying that an early lead of 10-12 points is the Spartans' death knell, but they seem to play better when it's not so easy for them. Not that it will be against Kansas.

Now that Bill Self has his team in the Sweet 16, can Kansas fans start expecting an Elite 8 or deeper run?

Brandon:

Kansas fans are some of the most loyal fans in the country. I would also say they all have great basketball minds, unlike the wine and cheese fans of Duke and North Carolina.

That said, some fans came into this year with low expectations. My guess is that a third-place Big 12 regular-season finish and maybe a semifinal Big 12 tournament exit was a common expectation.

I would also guess that a Sweet 16 appearance was probably the pinnacle of a season that saw the Jayhawks usher in a bunch of inexperienced players.

As the season progressed, and the Jayhawks put up the 14-2 record in the Big 12. At that point, I think Kansas fans' expectations started growing.

I think it is fair to say that most Kansas fans expected to go to the Big 12 tournament final and at least compete with Oklahoma for a two seed.

I doubt that the early exit to eventual tournament runner-up Baylor made Kansas fans revert back to their initial low expectations.

As far as expectations for the Michigan State game, I am guessing Kansas fans have mixed thoughts.

Kansas has not played all that well in the tournament, and I think many fans, me included, think Kansas is due for another performance similar to the one they put on in Norman, Oklahoma, back in late February.

I think most Kansas fans are hoping for a similar performance because it was the Jayhawks' best team win. And that is exactly what has to happen for them to beat this Michigan State team.

Does playing this game in Indianapolis, the site of their 2000 triumph, provide extra motivation for the Spartans?

Greg:

Not so much motivation as pleasant memories and perhaps a feeling of "Everything will be OK".

You get this far, you SHOULD think that you can keep going. And MSU is hardly a "Cinderella" type team. The fact that this game will be played in Indianapolis is probably mostly irrelevant, but it certainly can't hurt.

The Final Four being in Detroit, though, is the biggest carrot on a stick that you'll ever find for a team hailing from the state of Michigan. Indy isn't even close.

They'll bring a boatload of folks to Indianapolis, and while they may not be as awe-inspiring as they are in the Breslin Center in East Lansing, Sparty's fans will make their presence felt—and heard. Count on it.

Predictions

Brandon:

I think Kansas can replicate the performance that saw USC nearly clip the Spartans in the second round. Kansas is a better team than USC when they are firing on all cylinders, and I am bullish on the prospects of that happening.

Kansas 76, Michigan State 69

Greg:

MSU has a lot of that aforementioned karma in their favor: the Final Four being in Detroit; the 30th anniversary of the 1979 championship MSU team; and the payback thing for the 1986 debacle, also in the Sweet Sixteen.

All that, plus they match up well with Kansas.

No overtime, no funny clocks, just scoreboard.

MSU 74, Kansas 70