Creature vs. Creature: Duke, Villanova Set To Clash in the Sweet 16

Take a good look at the bracket.

Study each region and contemplate the matchups.  

With so many top seeds still in play, there are several notable games coming up—North Carolina vs. Gonzaga, Michigan State vs. Kansas, and Oklahoma vs. Syracuse come to mind.

In the midst of so many potential great games, the ensuing battle between No. 2 Duke and No. 3 Villanova in the Sweet 16 game of the East Region looks to be as good as any.

The Blue Devils and the Wildcats are almost mirror images of one another.

They are both perimeter-oriented teams who can run the floor and shoot from outside.  Both teams sacrifice traditional post play for speed and versatility.  They are both playing very, very well.

In what looks to be a classic-in-the-making, Bleacher Report writers and unashamed fans Justin McTeer (Duke) and Ryan Brennan (Villanova) discuss why their respective teams will advance.

What has been your team's defining moment this season?

Justin:  There are several moments to choose from; Duke's first ACC championship or second round NCAA tournament win since 2006 would be obvious choices.

But for me, this squad's defining moment came against its hard-fought second game with Maryland in late February.  

Early in the second half, Maryland's Dave Neal delivered a knockout screen to Duke guard Nolan Smith, giving Smith a concussion.  On Duke's next possession, Gerald Henderson threw down a jaw-dropping dunk on three Maryland players and proceeded to silence the Maryland crowd with an intense scream.

Chills went up (and down) my spine.

That play was proof that this season's Blue Devils, unlike the Duke teams of the previous two years, are tough.  They can take a team's best punch without falling down, and they can win through adversity.

Ryan:  After a weak non-conference schedule and falling short against all ranked opponents, it appeared Villanova was destined to have another mediocre season.

That all changed at the end of January, though, when the Wildcats played their final game at the Wachovia Spectrum and upset No. 3 Pittsburgh 67-57.

It was at that point that Villanova proved to the rest of the Big East they were a force to be reckoned with.  They solidified that notion the following week when they scored 102 in back-to-back games (the first time in the history of the program that they had scored triple digits back-to back) and took out ranked Syracuse and Marquette teams.

Which team is better prepared for the Sweet 16?

Justin:  Although the Blue Devils have been to the Sweet 16 in 10 of the last 12 seasons, the core of this Duke team has never made it this far in March.

Villanova, on the other hand, has been to the Sweet 16 or further in three of the last four years.

Still, the Blue Devils are the better prepared team going into Thursday's matchup.

Before entering the NCAA tournament, seven of Duke's last eight games were against teams that made it into the field of 65.  The Blue Devils won six of those seven games (they have currently won 10 of 11), losing only to North Carolina.

Only three of Villanova's final eight games prior to the tournament were against NCAA tournament teams.  They won two of those three games (losing to Louisville in the Big East conference tournament), but also lost to Georgetown in that eight-game stretch.

I'll be the first to admit the Big East has proven that it's the better conference this season with it's tournament record, but Duke closed out it's season strongly against the top teams in the ACC while Villanova got to pad its win column against teams like Rutgers, Depaul, and Providence.

Throw in Duke's nation-leading SOS and extremely high RPI rating, and the Blue Devils look like the more tested team.

Ryan:  Nova started the season 0-4 against ranked opponents, but have since been an impressive 6-1 (their only loss coming against Louisville in the semifinals of the Big East tournament).

They have been involved in eight dogfight games where the outcome was decided by five points or less, and they are 6-2 in those instances.  Their ability to pull through in so many close games proves the Wildcats are a team that can deal with the intense pressure the Sweet 16 offers.

Villanova has also been the perpetual underdog this season and has had to continuously prove themselves (this prepares you for the Sweet 16 better than anything).  They faced three teams that were in the top spot at one point this season (Louisville, Connecticut, and Pitt), and in those four games they lost by six twice, by one once, and won by 10.  Those three top-ranked teams also happen to be three of the No. 1 seeds at the Big Dance, so their Big East competition has conditioned them to be extremely competitive with the best that college hoops has to offer.

This isn't to say that Duke didn't have a tough schedule that prepared them for the Sweet 16 (they do, after all, have the No. 1 SOS), but there's something to be said for facing three No. 1 seeds during the regular season.  

The ACC provided the Blue Devils with a ton of great opponents, but they wound up losing twice to the only ACC No. 1 seed in the tournament (UNC).

What are the keys to winning the game?

Justin:  Duke needs to do what they have been doing for the last month—hold their own on the boards, take care of the ball, and run the offense through Gerald Henderson.

Just like they did in the Texas game, the Blue Devils have shown that they don't need to outrebound teams to win (even though they have a +3.2 rebounding margin on the season); they just need to stay close.  The Wildcats are not likely to dominate Duke on the boards, as they only average two more rebounds per game than Duke and are slightly smaller than the Blue Devils.

The one thing Duke does better than most teams in the nation is take care of the ball.  In the last five games, Duke is only turning the ball over 10.2 times compared to Villanova's 14 turnovers per game in the its last five contests.  That's right on par with Duke's +4.17 turnover margin (the highest in both the ACC and the Big East), which spells trouble for the Wildcats.

When Duke runs their offense through Henderson, good things happen for the Blue Devils.  Henderson is perhaps the most athletic player in the tournament.  He has a dangerous mid-range game, finishes around the basket, and draws fouls left and right.

When Henderson has the ball, even when he's not scoring well (which isn't often), he demands the attention of multiple defenders, freeing up other players for open looks.

If Duke executes in these areas, they'll be fine against Villanova.

Ryan:  Villanova's success is going to stem from controlling the frontcourt, and Dante Cunningham is a force under the basket.

The 6'8" senior forward has had to face off with the best big men in the country, including co-Big East Players of the Year Hasheem Thabeet of UConn and DeJuan Blair of Pitt, and Luke Harangody of Notre Dame (Big East Player of the Year 2008). Despite facing bigger players under the basket, Cunningham has emerged as a star for the Wildcats this season.

In controlling the frontcourt, Nova has to also play tough perimeter defense.  In recent history, Duke has lived and died by the three-ball, and without a dominant big man, this season has been no different.  The Blue Devils are shooting 35.5 percent  from beyond the arc, but in their losing efforts they are only connecting 25.6 percent of the time.  By forcing Duke to shoot contested long-balls, Nova will be able to keep the Blue Devils' three-point shot percentage down.

The Wildcats have to be careful not to over-defend on the perimeter, though, because they need to avoid creating holes at the top of the key where Gerald Henderson can take quick, deadly shots.

Speaking of Henderson, if Nova can figure out a way to draw fouls on him early, the tone of the game will change completely.  Henderson has had four or five fouls only four times this season.  In three of those games the Blue Devils lost, and in the fourth they managed to escape Rhode Island by three.

On the offensive end, Villanova needs to have quality ball movement.  They average 15 assists per game, and they will easily hit that if the backcourt can swing the ball quickly for open looks.  Corey Stokes and Scottie Reynolds have accounted for over 60 percent of the Wildcats' three pointers, and together they are shooting just under 40 percent.

Who will be the X-factor?

Justin:  Gerald Henderson would be the obvious choice, but Dwayne Anderson has the potential to contain Henderson (emphasis on potential).

Kyle Singler is another story.

Singler and Dante Cunningham have nearly identical statistics, with Singler having a slight edge in points, rebounds, and assists.  But Cunningham is not a perimeter-oriented player like Singler (he's only taken two three-point shots all season), and he'll likely be matched up with Lance Thomas around the basket.

That leaves Villanova's Shane Clark and Antonio Pena as the likely candidates to guard Singler.  Fortunately for the Blue Devils, Singler has the clear advantage in these matchups.

Last season, Singler only averaged six points per game in postseason play and the Blue Devils went 2-2 in those games.  So far this year, Singler is averaging 16.2 points per game since the end of the regular season and Duke is 5-0 in postseason play.

Singler is the X-factor that will carry the Blue Devils past Villanova.

Ryan:  Dante Cunningham.

He leads the Wildcats in points, rebounds, and blocks.  After not being on any All-Big East teams in 2008, he was named to the All-Big East second team and received the Most Improved Player Award in 2009.

When the Wildcats pounded UCLA in the second round, Cunningham grabbed a double-double with 18 points and 10 rebounds in only 24 minutes.  If he can keep that intensity up against Duke, the Wildcats are going to walk away with the "W."

Who else will have a big game?

Justin:  Jon Scheyer is one of the most overlooked players in the country.  He's dangerous, smart, consistent, and much more athletic than most people think (he generally gets one of the tougher defensive assignments).

The Blue Devils have been a different team, and Scheyer a different player, since he took over at the point.  He's had multiple 30-point games, very few turnovers, and won the ACC tournament MVP.  Even in Duke's one loss to the Tar Heels since the lineup change, Scheyer scored 24 points on a perfect 10-for-10 shooting performance.

Scheyer has thrived when being matched up with smaller point guards, able to shoot and pass over them at will.  He has a three-inch height advantage on Scottie Reynolds as well as a much longer build, which should give him the edge in the point guard battle.

Reynolds is a great player, but the ingredients are in place for Scheyer to have a big game.

Ryan:  Scottie Reynolds needs to take the Blue Devils by their horns and create opportunities for himself and the rest of the Nova squad.  

He had a rough couple of games to end the season, but the captain got himself back on track against the Bruins.  He has committed 93 turnovers over the course of the year, but 10 of them came in the two games before UCLA (where he did not turn the ball over).

The other Wildcat who needs to have a big game is the Big East Sixth Man of the Year, Corey Fisher.

Midway through the season the sophomore guard went to the bench after starting, and he has been incredibly successful in his new role.  He is third on the team in points at 10.9 points per game, but since coming off the bench he has averaged nearly two extra points per game.  He has also been much more efficient from beyond the arc—his three-point percentage has increased from 30.6 to 39.6. 

Who has the coaching advantage?

Justin:  It wouldn't be fair to throw out statistics comparing Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski with Villanova's Jay Wright.

Krzyzewski has been coaching much longer and has one of the best resumes in the history of the game, but Wright is one of the best young coaches in America.

This season has been a special showcase of Coach K's talent, though.

He started the season by shaking things up in a big way, replacing three-year starter Greg Paulus with the more athletic Nolan Smith.

Smith and the rest of the starters led Duke to its first No. 1 ranking in three years, but things started to fall apart shortly after that achievement.

That is, until Coach K made more surprising adjustments.

After Duke lost four of six games midseason, Krzyzewski made a change to Duke's lineup that no one saw coming when he moved Scheyer to the point and brought rarely-used reserve Elliot Williams (who hadn't even played in Duke's previous two games) into the starting lineup, placing Smith on the bench with Paulus.

Since that change, Duke is 10-1.

Krzyzewski has shown an incredible ability to adjust and succeed this season, and those adjustments have led the Blue Devils to 30 wins while giving Coach K three players (Paulus, Smith, and Brian Zoubek) with significant starting experience now coming off the bench.

Wright is a great coach, but Krzyzewski is one of the all-time greatest and he doesn't appear to be slowing down.

The coaching advantage belongs to Duke.

Ryan:  It's hard to argue against a coach who's already in the Basketball Hall-of-Fame, but Jay Wright has the edge over Coach K this season.

Coach K is one of the best coaches basketball has seen.

Ever.

He's been the ACC Coach of the Year five times, NCAA Coach of the Year three times, and led Team USA to a gold medal this past summer.  But the most recent of those awards came in 2000, while coach Wright received the Big East Coach of the Year this season.

But awards and accolades aren't going to define who has the coaching edge during Thursday's game—it's the track record from the season.

Wright benched two of his sophomore starters during the season—Corey Fisher and Corey Stokes—who both started during their freshman seasons.  Despite coming off the bench, the duo are third and fourth on the team in scoring and have become more productive in their new roles.

As mentioned above, the Wildcats are 6-2 in dogfights where the game was decided by five points or less.  The only way to be continuously successful in those situations, especially in the toughest conference in college hoops, is through great coaching.

It's because of tough coaching decisions that Wright has been forced to make this season and great coaching at the end of games that Villanova has the slight coaching advantage over Duke.

Who advances to the Elite Eight?

Justin:  This will be a great game, one of the best in the entire tournament.

Villanova is a fantastic team and the way they handled UCLA was extremely impressive (even it was on their home court).

In the end though, the Blue Devils are too tough, versatile, well-coached, and hungry to let this game go.

The Blue Devils will survive and advance, winning 82-73.

Ryan:  Nova.

The Wildcats were successful against the best conference in college basketball, especially down the stretch.  Cunningham needs to establish himself in the frontcourt—he is going to be an extremely tough matchup for Duke.  Nova's guards need to also go strong to the bucket and drive at Singler and Henderson to get them in early foul trouble.

No one denies that this is going to be a dogfight of a game, but this is where Villanova's experience in these situations is going to come into play.

Villanova 74, Duke 70.

Photos courtesy of the Associated Press.