Dallas Mavericks: Better Off without Dirk Nowitzki

When the Mavericks lost reigning MVP, Dirk Nowitzki to a knee and ankle sprain for at least two weeks, adding insult to the injury of falling to 0-8 against playoff teams since the Jason Kidd trade, things were looking bad. And the doomsayers, smelling blood, came out and started proclaiming fire and brimstone for Dallas.    

However, the latest coming out of this camp is that not everything is gloomy on the Dallas front.

In fact, Dallas figures to improve with Dirk out of the lineup.

How is this possible? Are we putting our credibility on the line? 

While this may seem quite contrarian the opinion, upon further investigation, you will find that it is quite valid. So, just how will Dallas be better without Nowitzki, at least to finish the regular season? (No one is suggesting that Dallas won’t need Dirk for the playoffs.)

Dallas currently has one of the most motionless offenses in the league—their half-court sets consist mainly of isolations and teammates standing around. This completely takes Jason Kidd out of the game, as he thrives on setting teammates up and running offensive sets.

Kidd’s half-court ventures with Dallas consist of throwing post-entry passes to Dirk and Josh Howard, and missing jumpers. Smush Parker could do the same thing. Currently, Jason Kidd’s only value is in running, and forcing, the fast break.

Dallas resorts to grinding it out at the end with teammates taking turns getting isolations.

Why, then, do they lose? Because they don’t have a premier individual offensive weapon to close out games. Dirk, Howard, and Stackhouse aren’t the isolation players that Kobe Bryant or LeBron James, or even Dwyane Wade are.

And while elite teams have team-oriented offensive options to mix in with isolations (Detroit motion, Laker triangle, Utah pick and roll, New Orleans’ Chris Paul brilliance, Phoenix run and gun)—Dallas really doesn’t have that alternative. They don't have effective offensive sets. So, Dallas is forced to go iso and they have come up short.

Without Nowitzki in the lineup, there will be a lot less isolations, and the team will have to run offensive sets to get buckets.

This usually does wonders for team chemistry and teammate recognition. Energy levels pick up, teammates feed off each other, and assists will go up. With more easy buckets and less grind-it-out possessions, the free flowing style (think back to the Steve Nash days, only with Jason Kidd) will return to Dallas.

Case in point, on Sunday, Mike Breen suggested out loud that they run the pick and roll with Terry more often – yes, team play usually is more effective than individual play.

The game has changed now, and teams are moving faster and going smaller. Teams can get by with one slow, traditional big man (think Shaq on the Suns, Yao on the Rockets, Dwight on the Magic, but he can run too)—but two big men on the court, the same time slows the game down too much.

Dirk and Dampier are like two dinosaurs out there.

You may counter that the Spurs are able to survive with Duncan and Kurt Thomas, but don’t forget, both of them are defensive aces, and the Spurs usually play at unreachable levels anyways. Dirk is a defensive liability out there.

This will be a test of Dallas’ resolve. Many times, it is through times of adversity that teams come together. If the Mavericks have an iota of character, they will come through during these tough times, much like the Rockets did for 2-plus weeks after Yao went down.

The Dirk and Yao injuries could end up portraying very similar scenarios: Losing a big man who got you easy buckets on isolations, and the result being more effective team play, boosted morale and hustle, and better defense.

And, don't forget, the Mavericks are way more talented without Dirk than the Rockets are without Yao.

While they will lose some rebounding prowess with their MVP out, they stand to learn and build team chemistry and team play in the process. The projection here is that they will comfortably make the playoffs and start them on the road, and that any off-court distractions afforded by Mark Cuban will be negated.

And, if Dirk comes back to a Dallas team running smoothly, and quietly integrates himself in, then Dallas may end up a dark horse in this ultra-competitive Western Conference.

Unless, of course, Dallas pulls another Golden State and whimpers quietly into the night. In which case, I will never go out on a limb and defend them again.