The NBA Draft Stock Exchange

As we approach the Sweet 16, there is no better time than the present to see how the top flight prospects have fared so far. Each year we see a prospects’ stock skyrocket, plummet and, every so often, we have a break out star...or two.

So much attention is focused on the tournament games, as it is probably the best barometer of a player's ability, as this is the time when the stars should align. The prospects not only raise their games because of the on-court rewards, but they also step it up because they know that this is when all eyes are on them.

All eyes are on the player, as he is in the national spotlight, and the competition is stiffer. 

A string of big games can secure an unknown that coveted first round (guaranteed) contract. On the other hand, a couple of back-to-back sub-par performances can turn a once-pegged surefire lottery pick into a nervous wreck, as he finds himself waiting a bit longer than expected to hear his name called by Commissioner Stern.

So, after two games, let’s take a look some of the higher-touted prospects and how their performances have hurt, or helped, them so far.

Blake Griffin: Bull Market

Griffin has had a monster tourney so far. He finally looks like himself again after struggling to get back in the swing of things after his concussion. With a 28pt-13reb performance against Morgan State, and a 33pt-17reb performance against Michigan, he has probably secured the top spot in the draft.

However, I still have my doubts about him.

Griffin has not yet faced any big man that is comparable to him in terms of athleticism and strength to this point. His physical advantages allow him to bully every opponent he faces.

He is showing signs of development, and will need to continue to refine his offensive game. His strength may match up against all of the undersized, underweight centers in college, but you better believe that strength won’t look as impressive against the bigs in the NBA.

James Harden: Bear Market

Harden was thoroughly unimpressive in his two outings. His 9pt/7reb/3ast game against Temple, and his 10pt/6reb/5ast performance against Syracuse have drawn attention to his weaknesses. 

This should put some serious doubt in the minds of NBA teams about whether or not he is the franchise-type player you seek with a top five pick.

Syracuse challenged him with a solid 2-3 zone. Harden couldn’t shoot over it, and struggled to find lanes to drive through because of the zone’s length. Now I know he won’t be facing zones as much in the NBA, but his inconsistent outside stroke, combined with his lack of explosiveness off the dribble, will certainly create some problems for him at the next level.

Demar DeRozan: Bull Market

In the month of March, DeRozan is averaging over 19 ppg. He is starting to look like the player most envisioned coming out of Compton High School. Despite his outside shooting remaining nonexistent, he has been shooting at a great clip. He is starting to show signs that he is actually learning how to play basketball.

In both games he came through big, logging huge minutes and hitting big shots. Basically, DeRozan played well when it mattered most. On the court his team needed him to live up to the hype, and for a few games, he finally did. Off the court, he surely solidified himself as a top 10 pick.

Jeff Teague: Bare Market

Teague came out of nowhere this year to be a big time scorer and proficient shooter. However, after lighting it up for most of the season, he cooled off considerably the last six games of the season.

He saved his worst performance for the biggest stage of the year.

After dropping over 20 points in 12 of the first 25 games, he averaged only 12.8 ppg over the last six games; including a season-low 10 in the first round of the tournament. Even worse, he posted 21 turnovers against only 15 assists over his last six games; a terrible omen for a 2-guard trying to pose as a point for the scouts.

Though he probably won’t fall out of the first round, I would be very weary of him if I was an NBA GM searching for my point guard of the future.

Hasheem Thabeet: Holding Steady

Thabeet put up big numbers, in limited action, in the first round against size-deficient UT-Chattanooga. There is nothing to be gained from that performance. Against Texas A&M, however, he posted a 6pt-4reb performance while picking up four fouls. He was limited to 20 minutes.

No matter how poorly he plays in the tournament his stock will not fluctuate drastically. He is 7’3’’, and we all know how GMs feel about big men, especially big men that tall.

He has a chance to be a Dikembe Mutombo type player; little offensive game, skilled shot blocker and defender. However, as I have said for each of his three years at UCONN, he has little chance to succeed as a full-time starter in the NBA. 

I would certainly not spend a top-10 pick for a bench player.