Spring Is Here—Time To Polish Lord Stanley's Cup, Pt. 2: Eastern Conference

In my first volume of this article, I looked at the standings and playoff prospects of the Western Conference. In this one, I look at East and the Stanley Cup finals.

Eastern Conference

1. Boston Bruins (.699), nine games remaining, four at home

Boston is 4-5-1 in their last 10 games and has not looked the same since having their nine-game point streak snapped in February by the visiting Sharks, going 7-9-3 since facing off against the best of the West. Even a trade to bolster their already healthy roster has not worked out as yet.

One thing is playing in Boston's hands: of their nine games remaining, an astonishing five are against teams no longer in the playoff chase, and two more (Canadiens, Sabres) may be by the time they match up. Then again, two of those games are against the red-hot Ottawa Senators.

That may be good, because while a weak schedule can help a team get a higher seed, it does not prepare them for playing when it counts, and this team has not won a playoff series in a decade. But they do have the best goal differential in the league and thus obviously are solid in every phase of the game.

By virtue of their home victory over New Jersey, the Bruins opened up a two-game lead over their foes, all but locking up the top seed. They are two and a half games behind the Sharks for the President's Trophy, but even their easy schedule makes that mountain a tough one to climb.

Boston will be the top seed, but will not make it out of the second round.

2. New Jersey Devils (.674), 10 games remaining, four at home

New Jersey is 7-3 in their last 10 games and has won nine of 10 games record-setting goaltender Martin Brodeur has played in since his return from the injured reserve list; the team is now healthy. Three of their remaining games are against teams playing for nothing, but two of those are home games they should win anyway.

The Devils are built for the playoffs, however, with great balance, attention to detail, a veteran roster that is cohesive, and championship experience.

Brodeur has suffered in recent years in April and May, because he carried a 75-game workload during the regular season. But being out for about four months will solve that problem—he will be rested for the first time since the Devils' title run of 1995.

He will also have one thing he has not had: scoring. The Devils are one of only nine teams in the league to average over three goals per game, and yet, they have maintained their trademark defence, being tied for fourth in the league in goals against even with Brodeur's injury. They are, however, barely in the top half for power play and just under the median penalty kill, despite playing in a division with three substandard power plays.

New Jersey will hold on to the second seed and win the Eastern Conference.

3. Washington Capitals (.649), eight games remaining, four at home

Washington is 5-4-1 in their last 10 games and will be able to rest a bit down the stretch, having the fewest games remaining in the league.

They are healthy now but played through injuries earlier in the season, helping to give them meddle against adversity and broaden their number of contributors—four players have more than a point per game including Norris Trophy favourite Mike Green on the blue line, and four others have 30-plus points.

That kind of balance and last year's experience make them a threat. They are seventh in the NHL in scoring and second on the power play.

At the same time, their goaltending is mediocre, with both net minders having just over a .900 save percentage contributing to their defence ranking in the bottom half of the league and their penalty kill in the bottom third. While Jose Theodore has never lost in the first round of the playoffs, he has also never won in the second round.

Nevertheless, the Capitals are three wins away from securing their second consecutive division title and are only one point behind New Jersey for the second seed.

However, they have played two more games...they are not likely to be caught or catch anyone, even though six of their remaining games are against teams not in the playoff chase. That weak schedule is due to their weak division, and may be their undoing in the playoffs.

Washington will hold on to the third seed but be upset in the first round.

4. Philadelphia Flyers (.620), 11 games remaining, six at home

The Flyers are 6-4 in their last 10 games and have incredible forwards, with six of their seven players scoring more than a point per two team games and two more on that pace who missed time. Philadelphia is now healthy for the stretch, missing only Derrian Hatcher, who they have been without the entire season.

Obviously, their offence is top-notch, ranking sixth in the league in both goals scored and power play. What may be surprising is that they also have an exceptional penalty kill, not only ranking sixth in success but elite in terms of the threat of shorthanded goals. However, they still manage to rank in the bottom third of the league overall in goals against.

There are questions about the goaltending, but this has not been the problem in the regular season, as Martin Biron has a save percentage of .916. Their inability to stop the opposition stems from team defence: only four teams give up more shots per game than Philadelphia. This could lead one to question a blue line that produces only one scoring threat and fails to clamp down in its own end, but I believe a bigger problem is the offence-only mentality of their forwards.

Five of their remaining 11 games are against teams not in the playoff chase and four of those are on the road. This not only gives them a chance to make up ground but makes those games still competitive enough so as to avoid complacency.

Winning in Pittsburgh Sunday all but assures the home ice in the first round with a two and a half game lead. But to succeed in the postseason these days, teams need skilled defencemen and a balance between offence and defence.

Philadelphia holds on to the fourth seed but loses in the first round

5. Pittsburgh Penguins (.581), eight games left, four at home

The Penguins have been hot, since firing Michel Therrien, who at the time I thought was being made the scapegoat. But they are 12-2-3 since his dismissal (7-1-2 in their last 10).

Certainly, the return of Sergei Gonchar to the blue line shortly before the change behind the bench was also significant, showcasing the necessity of a puck-moving defenceman. Only one role-player (Michael Zigomanis) is on injured reserve now, so their roster is strong.

They feature balanced scoring, with three centres among their six players with over 40 points. Even with early struggles, this team is now eighth in scoring, although only eight teams are worse on the power play. Conversely, while they are in the bottom half of the league in goals against, their penalty kill is in the top half of the league.

While Philadelphia is almost certain to be out of reach, Pittsburgh will have to work to hold off the Carolina Hurricanes and New York Rangers who both trail them by only a half game. Two of their final three games are against non-playoff teams (one on the road), and their last is in Montreal, who may be fighting for their lives or may be out of it. But last year's conference championship should help this team in its push for both position and series victories.

Pittsburgh holds on to the fifth seed and beats their in-state rivals in the first round before going down in a tough series to New Jersey.

6. New York Rangers (.575), nine games left, four at home

Much like their division rivals, the Rangers have made great strides since firing their coach, Tom Renney, and also made themselves better at the trade deadline. They have no significant injuries and are 7-3 in their last 10 games.

Perhaps more remarkable, they have scored 34 goals in that stretch. Despite this, they remain the lowest-scoring team in the league with the second worst power play. Somehow, they still have eight players who have scored at least 30 points, although one did it in Toronto (Nik Antropov).

On the other hand, Henrik Lundqvist anchors the sixth best defence in goals against and best penalty kill; the latter may come in handy now that the team has Sean Avery back. To show how much more their offence has struggled than their defence has shown, only three players on the New York roster have a positive plus/minus rating.

Thus, if they have indeed discovered an offence, they will be dangerous with their experience and outstanding net minding. However, they will be challenged regardless, as only one of their nine remaining games is against a non-playoff contender (in Atlanta).

New York holds on to the sixth seed and upsets both Washington and Boston before falling to New Jersey.

7. Carolina Hurricanes (.574), eight games remaining, five at home 

Carolina made a move at the trade deadline to reunite them with one of the forwards who helped them to win the Stanley Cup in 2006—Erik Cole. In their last 10 games, they are 7-1-2, including the win against Washington this weekend that gives them a little breathing room—a game and a half over division rival Florida.

Carolina has balanced scoring, with an astounding nine players with 30-plus points (including two defencemen) and six with over 40. Yet somehow, they are only 15th in scoring and 19th on the power play.

They are 11th in goals against, despite being 22nd in penalty kill. With a healthy roster, easy schedule (at least two games against teams with nothing to play for, plus possibly each of its last two), and playoff experience, they will be able to make it in; unfortunately, they will have the least favourable first round matchup.

Carolina will hold on to the seventh seed but be the first team eliminated in the playoffs in either conference.

8. Les Habitants de Montreal (.563), 10 games left, six at home

Montreal is in a major skid, having lost five straight and going 3-5-2 in their last 10. Unlike New York and Pittsburgh, dismissing their coach has done them no good, as their hold on a playoff spot has dwindled to a half game. It does not help that they are missing Robert Lang and Francis Bouillion.

However, five of their last 10 are against teams not fighting for the playoffs, including two road games. Their next two games are crucial, because they are at home against teams out of the chase—if they can win them, it could help them establish confidence for the remaining eight.

On paper, this is still a good team. They are in the top half in goals scored because of balanced scoring (only seven players are even over 30 points), although only 20th on the power play.

They are in the bottom third on goals against, but their penalty kill is above average. That should be good enough with their favourable schedule, probable tie-break edge over Florida in wins, and the drive of the 100th anniversary.

Montreal squeaks in but Boston gets revenge for last year's first round loss.

The Florida Panthers still may make it in. They have 10 games left and five are at home. Three of their remaining games are against teams not in the hunt for the playoffs, and their last game is against Washington who is not likely to have anything left to play for by then. They have 10 players with 30 points and two fantastic goalies with solid defencemen ahead of them, and they are healthy.

But the bottom line is that I believe Montreal will end their free-fall, and their schedule is slightly more favourable than Florida's. Plus, they are currently ahead of Florida, making it that much easier for them. However, if they lose that lead at any point, expect Florida to swoop into the final spot, albeit only to lose to Boston themselves.

The Buffalo Sabres are two and a half games out with 10 to go, and still at least a couple games away from having Ryan Miller return from his high ankle sprain. Even though they are otherwise healthy and have three of their remaining ten games left against non-playoff opponents, including two of their five road games, they simply have too much ground to make up.

The Stanley Cup finals

San Jose actually has a better blue line and better forwards, but New Jersey is better in net. Before the season, I did a power poll in which I explained how goaltending was about 40 percent of a team's value, compared to 30 percent for the other two units.

This would seem to give the Sharks the edge. San Jose would also have home ice over New Jersey and would not have the "playoff choker" stigma once they get through the West. In fact, pressure would more likely fall on the more experienced Devils, who have more players with time running out on them than the Sharks do.

But at the same time, they have more players who have been through the fire that deep. They also will have had a much better travel schedule, since they are projected to stay within driving distance and the Sharks would have traveled to Edmonton, Calgary, and Vancouver. New Jersey will also play a game or two less in my opinion to get their 16 wins.

New Jersey beats San Jose in six.