Spring Is Here—Time To Polish Lord Stanley's Cup, Pt. 1: Western Conference

Early spring is the time of the year when there are only two things going on: March Madness and the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

(If you thought "major league baseball's spring training," you are a loser. That did not matter when baseball still did, as in 15 years ago before the New York Yankees could buy their way into the playoffs by spending more on one player than teams like the Kansas City Royals and Pittsburgh Pirates can on their whole roster.)

Since only 24 teams' fans and gambling addicts really care about March Madness now, let's look at the world's fastest, most skilled, and most dangerous sport—as well as the most poorly run; case in point: Carolina and Washington have only eight games left, while Philadelphia and Chicago have 12.

Name another sport that would ever have teams playing half-again the number of games of those they are chasing. Name another sport that would consider the team with fewer wins in more games played ahead of its competition in the standings.

But enough of my annoyance at the way the NHL determines its standings. I will list each of the playoff-bound teams as they should be, by point percentage, and give where I believe they will finish—both in the regular season and the playoffs—and why.

Western Conference

1. San Jose Sharks (.732), 11 games remaining, five at home.

This team has really been struggling to score, but did just put five up on the Dallas Stars, and after a 2-5-1 stretch has now won four of five. They have five games left against three of the six teams in the league who are under .500. Unfortunately, most of those games are at home—games they were counting on winning anyway.

They are the only team in the NHL to be in the top five in all major categories: shots on goal, shots against, goals, goals against, power play, and penalty kill.

They currently have an injury report as long as Pacman Jones' arrest sheet, with five players on injured reserve and four more hurt, but all are expected back for the playoffs. For the first time since the lockout, this team also has championship experience

The Sharks will not lock up the first seed, but will win the West.

2. Detroit Red Wings (.729), 10 games remaining, six at home.

The Red Wings are playing great hockey in March (7-1-1) and are the defending champions. They are relatively heathy, with only one player on injured reserve, and have more home games left than all but two teams in the West.

They have the league's best offence (shots and goals scored) and power play, its best forward unit and its best blueline. So why won't they repeat?

1. They have only one game remaining against a team under .500 (at home against the Islanders) and three more against teams that might not make it in—all before they will be eliminated; thus, they are not likely to win the top seed.
2. They also rely a lot on their power play, getting almost a third of their goals from it; the playoffs are notoriously lower in penalties.
3. They are inconsistent at best in net, leading to them having one of the worst goals-against averages despite giving up fewer shots than almost anyone.

Detroit will be the first seed but go down in the second round.

3. Calgary Flames (.620), 11 games remaining, five at home.

Calgary is 4-6 in March and has lost five of its last seven, partially because of roster losses—five players are on injured reserve and one is now suspended. This trend, along with Vancouver getting hot, has led ot the Flames' lead in the Northwest dwindle to two games. Every team they will play down the stretch is likely to be fighting for a playoff position.

Calgary upgraded more than any other in the West at the trade deadline, but is struggling in part because of an inexplicable inability to defend its own end: only five teams give up more goals per game. However, with this blueline and Mikka Kiprusoff in net, one would expect this to turn around. In the playoffs, their physical style will result in fewer penalties as referees are more reluctant to blow the whistle, but it will also wear them down.

Calgary holds on to the third seed and loses to the Sharks in the second round.

4. Chicago Blackhawks (.607), 12 games remaining, nine at home.

No one has more home games left than Chicago, but every one of their games will be against a team that is jockeying for a playoff position. Chicago is a mess right now, having lost five in a row (the last two in overtime) and seven of eight.

They are relatively healthy, are in the top six in scoring, goals against, and power play. But the pressure is on right now, and this young team does not seem ready.

Chicago falls to the fifth seed and loses in the first round.

5. Vancouver Canucks (.599), 11 games remaining, four at home.

Since February, Vancouver has been the best team in the league, going 16-4-1. However, that includes their entire 11 game winning streak at home, meaning they are just over .500 on the road, where they play seven games down the stretch. At the same time, four of their remaining games are likely to be against teams not fighting for the playoffs, including three against division cellar-dweller Colorado.

Vancouver is deep, and is a different team than the one who struggled in mid-season when Roberto Luongo was out and before acquiring Mats Sundin; they are now relatively healthy. They have climbed to seventh in goals against and 11th in scoring, but are still in the bottom half for power play and penalty kill.

Canucks will earn the fourth seed and Luongo will help them upset Detroit in the second round, but they will bow out to San Jose in the conference finals.

6. Columbus Blue Jackets (.569), 10 games remaining, five at home.

The Jackets have won six of seven and do not seem to be wilting under the pressure as a young team who has never been to the playoffs. Two or three of their remaining games will be against teams with nothing to play for, including their next against Tampa Bay.

This team is relatively healthy and works hard every night and has guys who can be dynamic offensively, but its strength is in net, where Steve Mason has already locked up the Calder Trophy. Still, they are middle of the pack in almost all categories, scoring only one more goal than they have surrendered, and they are horrible on the power play.

Columbus will hold on to the sixth seed but fall to Calgary in the first round.

7. Edmonton Oilers (.556), 11 games remaining, seven at home.

Edmonton has earned at least one point in seven straight games, allowing them to stay a game behind Columbus and increase their lead over Nashville to a game and a half. Just one of their remaining games falls against a team unlikely to have anything to play for.

They have only two injured players, role-player Liam Reddox (day to day) and Lubomir Visnovsky (out for the season for some time now), but still have ten players left with 30 points. They are also getting great goaltending once again from Dwayne Roloson, mitigating the fact that only eight teams give up more goals. However, they are in the bottom half in scoring, power play, and penalty kill, and are lucky to be in the picture.

Edmonton will hold on to the seventh seed but bow out in the first round.

8. Nashville Predators (.535), 10 games remaining, five at home.

Nashville has points in four straight, but is clinging to the final spot, a game ahead of Anaheim and Minnesota; their next game is at home against Anaheim and their last is in Minnesota. All their opponents are likely to have something to play for. They have two major players out with injury (Jason Arnott and Radek Bonk), but Arnott will be back soon.

Nashville plays sound fundamental hockey, but they are near the bottom of the league in all offensive categories and only middle of the pack in defensive statistics. However, they are getting great goaltending from rookie Pekka Rinne and have a playoff-tested (albeit six games), outstanding back-up in Dan Ellis, and as a team are experienced enough in getting to the playoffs.

Nashville holds on to their narrow lead but loses in the first round to a familiar foe; they have always lost to either San Jose or Detroit.

The St. Louis Blues have 10 games left and finish with five of six on the road, but two of those games are against Phoenix and Colorado who are out of the playoffs. They have been steady in March (5-4-1) but have fallen off their hot pace in February, but this team works hard and that is why they have gotten back in the chase despite injuries to their top two defencemen (Erik Johnson, out the entire season, and Eric Brewer) and sharp-shooter Paul Kariya.

The only reason I am not picking them to pass Nashville is that Nashville will have the tie-break, and I am not prepared to say St. Louis will get three more points in ten games.

The Anaheim Ducks just miss the playoffs. They have four games against teams with nothing to play for and five of their 11 remaining are at home. They are relatively healthy, but traded away just barely too much at the deadline.

The Minnesota Wild have gotten healthy and also have five of their last 11 at home, but only one against a team not fighting for position, although Columbus may have their seed wrapped up by the last game.

The Dallas Stars just got Brad Richards back, but have three players, including their best forward and best defenceman, still on injured reserve. They have five of their ten games at home and two against teams with nothing to play for, but they seem to have run out of gas. Still, I see them going into their last game in Anaheim with a mathematical chance to make it.