2013 March Madness Field of 68 Projections: Nov. 26

With Thanksgiving tournaments concluded and the Big Ten/ACC Challenge upon us, I have enough information to present my first NCAA tournament bracket projections of the 2012-13 season.

As always, I am not trying to guess how teams will finish the year. I am simply seeding them based on their current résumés.

I like to break teams down into three categories:

1. Wallflowers are bubble teams because everyone wants to get into the Big Dance, but not all have the guts to ask a girl out onto the dance floor.

2. Elite teams that are safely in the field are Dancing with a Hottie.

3. In the middle are the schools that are Dancing with their Sister.

For two of the past three years, my final bracket projections have been more accurate than those of ESPN's Joe Lunardi, and I had the most accurate projections in the country in 2011.

I'll begin with the two First Four at-large bid games:

(12a) St. John's vs. (12d) St. Joseph's

(12b) Texas A&M vs. (12c) Florida State

First four teams out: Dayton, Bucknell, Belmont

The projections are presented in slideshow format, with each major conference receiving its own slide. First up is the ACC.

ACC (4)

Dancing with a Hottie: Duke (No. 1 seed), NC State (4)

Dancing with their Sister: North Carolina (10)

Wallflowers: Florida State (12)

Two weeks into the season, Duke has the best resume in the country. The Blue Devils are 6-0 despite playing nothing but top-85 teams, including wins over Kentucky, Minnesota, VCU and Louisville.

NC State suffered a surprising loss to Oklahoma State at the Puerto Rico Tip-Off in San Juan on Nov. 18, but will have a chance at redemption in its next two games against Michigan and UConn.

No matter what the national polls might indicate, North Carolina's current resume is nowhere near the top 25 in the country. The Tar Heels' four Division I wins have come against sub-100 competition, and they lost by 11 to 3-2 Butler. They win at Indiana on Tuesday and I'll restore them to Dancing with a Hottie status.

Florida State opened the season with a curious loss at home to South Alabama, but has since defeated BYU and St. Joseph's to get itself back in the projected field.

Big East (8)

Dancing with a Hottie: Syracuse (2), Louisville (2), Cincinnati (4)

Dancing with their Sister: Pittsburgh (5), Georgetown (8)

Wallflowers: Marquette (10), Notre Dame (12), St. John's (12)

Syracuse is off and running once again, opening the season with a 62-49 win over SDSU aboard the USS Midway in San Diego. The Orange followed that up with three straight wins at the Carrier Dome, running their home winning streak to a school-record 25. SU should be 17-0 before traveling to Louisville on Jan. 19.

Connecticut began the post-Jim Calhoun era with a shocking win over Michigan State in Germany, and the Huskies' only loss thus far is to an undefeated New Mexico team. They would be a 6 seed if they were not banned from postseason play this season.

Georgetown's win over UCLA isn't looking as impressive since the Bruins fell to Cal Poly, but the Hoyas did take No. 1 Indiana to overtime before losing by 10.

Marquette's one-point loss to Butler didn't look as bad after the Bulldogs beat UNC, but the Golden Eagles are going to have to beat someone good before rising the S-curve. A victory at Florida on Thursday would do the trick.

Notre Dame entered the season as a top-25 team, but a loss to St. Joseph's in the Coaches vs Cancer Classic set the Irish back a bit.

Obviously, the bubble is extremely wide open at this point of the season, so why not hand out a bid to St. John's, whose only two losses have come to Murray State and Baylor, both currently in my field. The Red Storm played tough with the Racers and hold both a top-40 RPI and strength of schedule.

Big Ten (8)

Dancing with a Hottie: Indiana (1), Ohio State (1), Michigan (1)

Dancing with their Sister: Minnesota (5), Michigan State (6), Wisconsin (6), Illinois (7), Northwestern (7)

The Big Ten is good. How good? The conference has by far the best RPI and win-loss record (55-11), and three of its five undefeated squads are on my top line. All will be tested this week in the Big Ten/ACC Challenge as Indiana takes on North Carolina, Ohio State travels to Cameron Indoor and Michigan hosts NC State.

Michigan State seems a bit overrated at No. 13 in the country in the latest AP poll. The Spartans do have a win over Kansas, but lost to UConn and only beat Boise State and Louisiana-Lafayette by a combined seven points.

And Northwestern is once again attempting to make its first NCAA tournament in school history, beginning the season 6-0 with a trio of top-100 victories.

Big 12 (4)

Dancing with a Hottie: Oklahoma State (4)

Dancing with their Sister: Kansas (6), Kansas State (7)

Wallflowers: Baylor (11)

Oklahoma State has been one of the major surprises of the young season, using a 20-point shellacking of NC State to propel itself into the national consciousness. The 5-0 Cowboys don't face another top-150 team until Gonzaga comes to town on New Year's Eve Day.

A top-10 ranking for Kansas is befuddling when the Jayhawks lost to Michigan State (ranked No. 13), who lost to UConn (ranked No. 28). KU's only top-175 win is over St. Louis.

Baylor has been one of the biggest disappointments thus far. A two-point loss to Colorado isn't horrible, but a four-point setback to College of Charleston is. Could the Bears have been looking past that contest to their meeting with Kentucky on Saturday?

Pac 12 (5)

Dancing with a Hottie: Arizona (3), Colorado (4)

Dancing with their Sister: Oregon (8), California (9)

Wallflowers: UCLA (10)

After a couple seasons in the doldrums of college basketball, the Pac 12 is back. Arizona is a Final Four contender, Colorado, Oregon and Cal have been pleasant surprises and UCLA—well, UCLA was supposed to be good.

The Buffalos are ranked No. 2 in the RPI, with top-70 wins over Dayton, Murray State, Baylor and Air Force.

The Ducks are 5-1 with a great win at UNLV, and their only loss is to undefeated Cincinnati.

And the Bears are 6-0 after capturing the Anaheim Classic.

The Bruins, meanwhile, have dropped two of three, including a shocking home loss to Cal Poly.

SEC (6)

Dancing with a Hottie: Kentucky (2), Florida (2), Missouri (3)

Dancing with their Sister: Alabama (5), Tennessee (8)

Wallflowers: Texas A&M (12)

Kentucky has stumbled out of the blocks a bit, struggling to get past Maryland before falling to Duke.

Alabama has quietly opened the season 4-0 vs. Division I opponents, capturing the 2K Sports Classic title.

Texas A&M barely makes the field. The Aggies' computer numbers are solid, but they got crushed by a mediocre St. Louis squad, and their best win is over LA Tech.

Other Conferences (15)

Dancing with a Hottie: Creighton (3), Gonzaga (3)

Dancing with their Sister: San Diego State (5), New Mexico (6), Murray State (7), Wichita State (8)

Wallflowers: Colorado State (9), Ohio (9), Butler (9), UNLV (10), VCU (11), Memphis (11), St. Louis (11), Air Force (12), St. Joseph's (12), Dayton (first team out), Bucknell (second team out), Belmont (third team out)

New Mexico is one of 33 remaining undefeated teams, starting the season 6-0 after winning the U.S. Virgin Paradise Jam final over UConn.

Butler has had a roller-coaster start to the season, losing at Xavier before beating Marquette and UNC to advance to the Maui final, where the Bulldogs lost to undefeated Illinois.

It's still November, and I can already tell you that VCU will once again be a controversial team on Selection Sunday. Over the first two weeks of the season, the Rams proved they can play with anyone in the country, but with near misses against Wichita State, Duke and Missouri, they may not have that signature win they'll need come March.

Virginia Commonwealth did beat Memphis, but it'll need the Tigers to turn things around after starting the season 3-2 with an RPI of 240.

Automatic Bids

No. 13 seeds: Lehigh, Middle Tennessee, SFA, Vermont

No. 14 seeds: Montana, La Tech, Bryant, George Mason

No. 15 seeds: Elon, North Dakota State, Cal State Northridge, Florida Gulf Coast

No. 16 seeds: Valpo, Loyola-Maryland, Columbia vs. Alcorn St, High Point vs. Savannah St