Breakdown of the USC Trojans for the 2009 NCAA Tournament

Breakdown of the USC Trojans for the 2009 NCAA Tournament

Team: USC Trojans (Pac-10 Champions)

Style of play

USC is a grind-it-out defensive team first and foremost. They play a style like a solid Big East team, in my opinion. 

However, they do get caught up in pace sometimes and can also run with other teams if necessary due to athletic wings and the fact that all five starters can pull down a rebound and start the break up court themselves on the dribble. 

But USC will always try to win with tough defense and in your face pressure around the perimeter.

USC is not a good shooting team, in the classic definition, but DeRozan has come on as a mid-range shooter and they are heavily selective in their shot-choices, with point-guard Daniel Hackett breaking down a defense by getting in the lane and finding an open teammate or taking a 10-footer himself. 

But USC will not knock you dead by hitting outside shots all game like Cal or Arizona might. USC's calling-card will always be defense and everything revolves around the three big guards and Pac-10 Defensive Player of the Year, Taj Gibson, in the paint.

Gibson is third all-time in Pac-10 history in blocks and he is only a junior. He is 6'9" but has a 7'2" wingspan and is ultra-agressive in his blocked-shot prowess, often at the expense of boxing out and getting defensive rebounds.

But he patrols the paint and alters shots with the best of the big men in the NCAA. As long as he is not in foul trouble, the USC perimeter defenders will get up tight on their man because they know if they get beat off the dribble, Gibson is there to help them out if their man gets into the lane. 

I would expect for USC to play very defensive-oriented games in the Tournament and try to dictate the pace and style of the game through aggressive, pressure defense, unless they draw a 'run-and-gun' style team, where they may try to play to their pace a little more than they would like.

Strengths

USC's greatest strength is in their length and aggressiveness, especially on defense.  All of USC's perimeter players are 6'5" or taller, and are schooled in Coach Floyd's defensive tactics, which revolve around giving the offensive player little to no room. 

With this perimeter size, USC can really shut down a team that relies on the three point shot for a lot of their points. Few teams have taller guards, and when the USC defenders bring their pressure all the way out past the three-point line, it makes the shorter guards have to take three-pointers from NBA range, greatly reducing their percentages.

USC was very strong on three-point defense against Cal, UCLA, and ASU in the Pac-10 Tournament. As mentioned above, Taj Gibson is the best defender in the Pac-10 and while only 6'9", has the wingspan of a seven-footer with the quickness of a small forward.

He can dominate a game inside as long as he stays out of foul trouble, which he has been getting much better at recently. On offense, USC has good balance. Gibson is the only inside player, but has a good offensive-post game, as long as they can get the ball in to him.

USC often has trouble getting him enough space to operate down low because teams do not fear their long-range shooting. Demar DeRozan finally has come around and is now USC's best offensive option at this point on a team that runs a high percentage of half-court sets.

DeRozan is a break-down-your-defender guy who can create his own shot and has become deadly on the mid-range jumper, even if his man is right on him. He will hit a jumper with a defender right in his face, a la Kobe Bryant, and that scoring option has really turned USC's season around. 

PG Daniel Hackett is a good shooter, but will only take an outside shot if wide open or if the shot clock is winding down, as it often is in USC's offensive sets.

However, he is a super-smart player with a basketball-IQ that every coach would want out of their point guard and USC is not afraid to let the shot clock run down and have the ball in Hackett's hands. 

He can break down a defender and get in the lane and is very strong at 6'5", and he is able to get shots off in traffic, with either hand even though he is left-handed. He grew up in Italy and patterns his game after Ginobli of the Spurs, even though he is bigger and stronger than Ginobli.

Dwight Lewis is a streaky shooter who can win games for USC if he is on, but he can lose them, too. Leonard Washington is a tough inside player who can defend and rebound against players much bigger than he is.

Newly-added starter Marcus Simmons played the "shut-down" role on the other team's point guard through the Pac-10 Tournament and was exceptional at the task. 

His offense in non-existent, but he is long and quick and can defend the other team's point guard which frees up Hackett to defend the other team's top scorer, like ASU's James Harden or Arizona's Chase Budinger. 

Weaknesses

USC has a lack of depth. This is not nearly as bad as it was all year when USC's sixth, seventh, and eighth men were all hurt for portions of the season and they are all back now, but nobody on the bench will get more than 10-12 minutes unless someone is in foul trouble.

This is OK because the USC starters, especially the Big Four (Gibson, Hackett, Lewis, and DeRozan) are used to going 37+ minutes, but foul trouble is always a concern for USC, especially inside.

Gibson's aggressive defensive style leads to a lot of fouls and with the only backup center-type being freshman Nikola Vucevic (who has actually come in for stretches recently and held his own), it is essential that Gibson stay on the floor at all times.

USC will often go into scoring slumps because they have no great shooters.  Recently, DeRozan has been the Trojans' savior, finally bringing the ability to break down a defender and get his own shot, something that USC really struggled with in the middle of the year. 

Only DeRozan is an 'offensive-weapon.'  Gibson is a strong post player, but does not get the ball in a good spot much of the time because the defense can collapse down and leave USC's outside men open because of the lack of steady outside shooting. 

If the other team can slow DeRozan in USC's offensive sets, then USC could have a hard time scoring, especially if Gibson is not a factor on the offensive end. USC does not have a backup point guard of value, although many players can bring the ball up, only Hackett is a true 'floor general.'

Should he get in foul trouble, USC would be weakened, but with the emergence of Simmons as a match-up-with-the-other-team's-point-guard defender, it has freed up Hackett a bit from a defensive responsibility standpoint, and has made foul trouble much less of a concern lately. 

Since Taj Gibson challenges so many shots, and USC has no other real inside presence, USC will often have a tough time on the defensive boards because Gibson has chased a shooter out of the key and left the three guards to clear the boards.

Should do well against

Any team that has a single star, especially if that star is a perimeter player. Coach Floyd is a master of defensive schemes and USC can throw five perimeter defenders at 6'4" or taller at any star offensive player. USC will take away another team's star and force that team to beat them elsewhere. 

A team that relies on the three-pointer would be a good matchup for USC also because USC really stretches out their perimeter defense and with no guard shorter that 6'4", it is hard for teams with guards who are in the 6'0" range to get shots off unless they are four feet behind the line. 

USC will always have a better chance against a team that does not score a ton of points because USC's strength is not scoring and if they get into a shootout, they may not be able to keep up.

USC will do much better in a "chess game" than a "track meet."

Could have trouble with

Teams that have a balanced offense.  Coach Floyd's best ability may be in designing a defensive scheme to shut down a team's best weapon (a la Durant two years ago in the second round vs. Texas). 

However, if this player is an interior beast (a la Beasley last year) they could struggle due to a lack of size and Gibson's tendency to challenge too many shots and get into foul trouble. 

USC could also have trouble with a team with more than one post player because USC only really has one post defender. If they draw a team that has more than one interior offensive player, they might have to alter their starting lineup and take Simmons off the court, which is not Floyd's preference at this point. 

Also, until Simmons emergence the last three games, USC had trouble with small, quick guards who could beat USC's bigger defenders off the dribble and break down the defense and kick out to open shooters. 

This has been much less of a problem lately because Simmons has been very adept at staying in front of the other team's point guard, but it would always be a concern if USC has to put Hackett or Lewis on the other team's small guard (like Washington's Isaiah Thomas or UCLA's Derren Collison) because those types of guards usually have little problem getting around USC's big guards. 

Best-case scenario

Would be that USC is able to dictate the pace of the game and wear down their opponent with defensive pressure and contested shots. Also, if Dwight Lewis gets off to a good start, USC is a much better team as he offers a fourth scoring option that has to keep the defenses attention. 

If USC can hit a few three-pointers early, and impose their will on the other team's strategy, they could give just about anybody a run for their money.

Worst-case scenario

Gibson and/or Hackett get into early foul trouble.  With no legitimate backup for either, when USC loses one of them for several minutes, they tend to stagnate and the other team will often go on a run. 

If USC cannot hit any threes, which sometimes happens, they may shoot themselves out of a game completely. This problem has happened less in the last couple weeks with the emergence of DeRozan as an offensive weapon, but USC will sometimes go an entire half without a three.

If the other team can prevent the ball from getting into Gibson in the post, USC becomes a jump-shooting team which is not their best strength. 

If everything goes right, they could reach

Hard to say without seeing the brackets, but if they are an eight or nine seed, I don't see them beating a one-seed and getting to the Sweet 16.

However, they are capable of out-planning and out-efforting most teams and if they could get the right draw in the second round (maybe a Duke, Michigan State, Kansas, or Wake Forest) a trip to second weekend of the NCAA Tournament is not a stretch by any means.

I would expect them to be favored or at least close to even in their first-round game vs. most of the six, seven, and eight-seeds I am seeing on the mock brackets right now.