Projecting the Field of 65: Selection Sunday

It's the greatest day of the year: Selection Sunday.

So, who's in and who's out?

It's not an easy question to answer, especially this season when it seems like there are more bubble teams in contention than ever before, but before we get to that, let's take a look at the No. 1 seeds: Louisville, North Carolina and Pittsburgh.

These teams appear to be locks for the top line, leaving one open spot for Connecticut or Memphis. 

Or Duke?

Why is no one talking about the Blue Devils as a candidate for that last 1 seed?  They're my pick.

Duke

The Blue Devils blew out a good Florida State team in the ACC final today—the same FSU squad that beat North Carolina yesterday.

Duke has the best RPI and strength of schedule in the country and earned the automatic bid from the top rated conference.

Coach K's team has wins over Michigan, Purdue, Xavier, Florida State and Wake Forest, and all six of their losses have come to teams that will be in the NCAA tournament.

UConn

UConn would be a top seed if not for the loss of Jerome Dyson.

The Huskies are 3-3 since he suffered a season-ending injury, but even those three defeats aren't that bad (two to Pitt and one to Syracuse in The Greatest Game Ever played).

UConn has a better record than Duke against the top 50 and 100, but its RPI (8) and SOS (28) are worse, and unlike the Blue Devils, the Huskies have lost to a non-NCAA team.

Memphis

Memphis is 31-3 and has won 25 in a row, but the Tigers have just two impressive victories on the year.

That's just not good enough when comparing their resume to that of Duke and UConn.

Memphis lost to Xavier, who Duke killed, and to Georgetown and Syracuse, both of which split a pair of games with Connecticut.

No.1 seeds: Pittsburgh, North Carolina, Louisville, Duke

No. 2 seeds: Connecticut, Memphis, Michigan State, Oklahoma

No. 3 seeds: Wake Forest, Villanova, Kansas, Missouri

No. 4 seeds: Washington, Purdue, Syracuse, Florida State

No. 5 seeds: Illinois, UCLA, Arizona State, Xavier

No. 6 seeds: Clemson, Utah, West Virginia, LSU

No. 7 seeds: Marquette, BYU, Gonzaga, Tennessee

No. 8 seeds: Ohio State, Dayton, Butler, Texas

No. 9 seeds: California, Texas A&M, Boston College, Oklahoma State

No. 10 seeds: Michigan, Temple, USC

That leaves four at-large spots for 10 teams.

It was five spots until Mississippi State beat Tennessee in the SEC final to steal a bid from Wisconsin.

Creighton (No. 10 seed)

The Bluejays are among the top four bubble teams in seven of the eight significant statistical categories. 

They won 11 of their last 12; were 11-5 away from home and while they were just 2-2 versus the top 50, the MVC School was an impressive 9-5 against the top 100. 

Creighton beat fellow bubble New Mexico and conference champ Northern Iowa, but the victory that gets it in is an 18-point shellacking of Dayton back on Dec. 10.

San Diego State (No. 11 seed)

Heading into the Mountain West Conference tournament, I thought a quarterfinal win over UNLV would get them to the right side of the bubble.

Not only did they beat the Rebels for the third time, but they went out the next day and downed top-seeded BYU.

SDSU nearly removed all doubt when they lost by just two to Utah in the championship game.

The Aztecs had already beaten the Utes once during the regular season and also defeated fellow bubble New Mexico.

Their computer numbers are good (RPI 34, SOS 40); they went 9-7 away from home and won eight of their last 12.

Saint Mary's (No. 11 seed)

If San Diego State is in, then Saint Mary's has to make it as well.  The Gaels beat the Aztecs and also downed WAC champ Utah State and Big East bubble Providence.  Four of their six losses came without star guard Patty Mills (he left halfway through their first loss to Gonzaga), and now that he's back, the committee has to judge SMC on its 18-2 record with Mills.  The Gaels were 13-5 in road/neutral games.

Minnesota (No. 11 seed)

Minnesota did the right thing by beating Northwestern on Thursday but the Gophers couldn't seal the deal with a win over Michigan State. 

I still have them in, though; because they're 9-10 against the top 100, have an RPI of 42 and a SOS of 35.

They beat Louisville, Ohio State and Illinois, but most importantly, they swept Wisconsin.

Wisconsin (first out)

The Badgers were bumped from the bracket when Miss State stole a bid.

They could've locked things up with a win over Ohio State in the Big Ten quarters, but a loss leaves them muddled in with the rest of the bubbles. 

The 4-10 mark against the top 50 isn't good, nor is their overall 18-12 records.

Wisconsin lost three of its last five games and were just 6-9 away from Madison.

The Badgers' best non-conference victory was by two over Virginia Tech, a team that won't be dancing.

Maryland (second out)

A lot of people have the Terps in after their upset win over Wake Forest in the ACC quarters Friday, but I thought they also needed to beat Duke in the semis and they didn't.

All of their numbers are mediocre: 7-9 in conference, RPI of 55 and 4-8 versus the top 50. 

They have great wins over Michigan State, Michigan and UNC, but they've also lost to Morgan State and Virginia.

Penn State (third out)

The Nittany Lions didn't just lose to Purdue, they got blown out by 14 and now sit squarely on the bubble.

A 6-9 record against the top 50 is good, but I don't think it's as good as, say, a 4-5 mark or even a 2-2 or 2-3 record. 

When you get that many chances against top competition, you're bound to win a few.

As a Syracuse fan, I know all too well how the committee hates a bad non-conference schedule. 

That's what kept the Orange out in 2007. PSU's eight games against RPI sub-200 teams have its computer numbers looking weak (RPI 70, SOS 92).

Arizona (fourth out)

Arizona is in bad shape after losing to ASU in the quarters Thursday.

Like Penn State, the Wildcats have six top 50 wins but they also have ten top 50 losses. An RPI of 62 and a 5-10 record away from home has them out of my field.

Auburn (fifth out)

The Tigers fell out of the field after losing to Tennessee in the SEC semis. The numbers just aren't there. The RPI is 63, SOS is 62 and they’re 2-4 versus the top 50 and 6-10 against the top 100.

UNLV (sixth out)

The Rebels are out after losing for the third time to San Diego State Thursday. They will be an interesting case today.

Despite good non-conference wins over Louisville and Arizona, the Rebels' three losses to SDSU, two of which were at home, combined with terrible losses to TCU, Wyoming and Colorado State, may keep them out of the field. 

Their computer numbers (RPI 66, SOS 83) are not good and they've only won four of their last 10.

So, the rest of my projections look like this...

No. 11 seeds: Mississippi State

No. 12 seeds: Siena, Western Kentucky, Cleveland State, Utah State

No. 13 seeds: Northern Iowa, VCU, American, SFA

No. 14 seeds: North Dakota State, Binghamton, Akron, Robert Morris

No. 15 seeds: Portland State, Cornell, East Tennessee State, Morgan State

No. 16 seeds: Cal State Northridge, Radford, Morehead State, Chattanooga, Alabama St

Jordan Schwartz is Bleacher Report's New York Yankees Community Leader. His book "Memoirs of the Unaccomplished Man"is available at amazon.com, barnesandnoble.com, and authorhouse.com.

Jordan can be reached at [e-mail]