Predicting the 2009 NCAA Tournament Bracket

It's that time of the year—Selection Sunday. The madness will be outlined before our very eyes.

While everyone will be picking their brackets over the next few days, I decided to take an extra step, and guess what the bracket will look like before it is actually released.

I predicted the bracket last year under the headline "the quest to beat Joe Lunardi" and lost to Joe picking teams (he got 65 of 65, I got 64) but did a little better job picking seeds.

You can review my last year's picks and recap here.

I will not simply try and outpick a fellow (and highly more successful) bracketologist this year, but simply try to see how close I can get to being right this year.

This first version will run for a couple hours then I will update it after the 1 EST games end, especially since both the ACC and SEC finals can impact the entire grid.

From what I've learned over doing this before is that the 3 EST and later games today (this year it's only the Big Ten final) is finished too late to change the bracket, and both teams in the final are in, so it's specific outcome will have no bearing on the seeding.

Updated through all games except the Big Ten final which won't effect the seeding (auto bids in bold, predicted auto bids italicized, RPI numbers thanks to InsideRPI from ESPN):

East

1 Pittsburgh (Big East)

No. 1 overall seed, 7 top 25 wins, tied for most in the nation.

16a Morehead State (OVC) (Play-in game)

Winner of the OVC tournament, tough OT win over Austin Peay to get here.

16b Chattanooga (Southern) (Play-in game)

Winner of the Southern conference tourney, much less thrilling to the public than Davidson.

8 Cal (Pac-10) 22-10

9 Dayton (A-10) 26-7

Cal very inconsistent, but with a lot of big wins. After reviewing Cal and Tennessee's profile, I switched the two seeds. Dayton's 26 wins help them get in as the second best A-10 team.

5 Florida State (ACC) 25-9

12 San Diego State (MWC) 23-9

San Diego State is in my last three in—beating UNLV three times and BYU in the semifinals of the MWC tourney gets 'em in, but just barely. Florida State finished real strong, and might be good enough to be a four-seed if they can beat Duke.

4 Purdue (Big Ten) (predicted winner over Ohio St)  24-9

13 Cleveland State (Horizon) 25-10

Great finish for Purdue—blowing away Penn State and solidly beating Illinois. Great shooters. Cleveland State is capable of an upset. Purdue knows upsets too well.

6 Gonzaga (WCC) 26-5

11 Temple (A-10)  22-11

Temple moves up to an 11 with the Mississippi State win. Gonzaga is a real hot team right now, but a lower seed than their top 25 ranking would suggest.

3 Wake Forest (ACC) 24-6

14 North Dakota State (Summit) 26-6

Wake Forest is very up-and-down, but finished second in the ACC. North Dakota State is now officially the most consistent tournament team in Division I (one appearance in one year of eligibility).

7 Butler (Horizon) 26-5

10 Siena (MAAC) 26-7

Ironically, the committee has a tendency to mix good mid-majors together, like Drake and Butler a year ago. Both teams could be the mid-major Cinderella this year.

2 Oklahoma (Big 12) 27-5

15 Portland State (Big Sky) 23-9

Oklahoma may have been a one-seed before their loss to Oklahoma State—instead they are here as the worst of the two-seeds, falling behind Duke/Memphis/Michigan State.

The Sooners still have 10 top 50 wins, the second most in the nation.

Portland State is barely in after nipping Montana State in the Big Sky championship, despite being heavy favorites.

South

1 Louisville (Big East) 28-5

16 Morgan State (MEAC) 23-11

Louisville clinched a No. 1 seed with the Big East championship and help from UConn going down in a 70-minute slugfest with Syracuse. Louisville also went 7-1 against top 25 RPI teams.

8 Utah State (WAC) 30-4

9 Oklahoma State (Big 12) 22-11

Utah State has a ton of wins and a great record, but have simply beat nobody, and thus very tough to predict on how good they'll be in the tourney.

I'm leaning toward the more pessimistic side, and believe Oklahoma State, who finished strong in the Big 12 to get in the tournament, would have the advantage.

5 Illinois (Big Ten) 24-9

12 Mississippi State (SEC) 23-12

Illinois benefited from a surprisingly balanced Big Ten, and has nine top 50 wins. Mississippi State takes Penn State's (and other bubble teams') bid by beating Tennessee Sunday.

4 Washington (Pac 10) 25-8

13 Binghamton (Am East) 23-8

If this turns out to be the matchup, it will be an entertaining one, with both teams able to get up and down. Binghamton is capable of knocking off a good team, and Washington might be the best story out of the Pac-10 behind a great force inside in Jon Brockman.

6 LSU (SEC) 26-7

11 USC (Pac-10) 21-12

This matchup includes two surprises this year—LSU's recovery from the depths of the SEC to a regular season crown, and USC playing their way into the tournament, taking out Cal, UCLA, and Arizona State in three days. Trent Johnson knows USC well from his days in the Pac-10.

3 Villanova (Big East) 26-7

14 Stephen F Austin (Southland) 24-7

Villanova is a beneficiary of the great Big East, proving last year's sweet 16 run as a 12 seed was no fluke.

7 Clemson (ACC) 23-8

10 Texas A&M (Big 12) 23-9

Clemson has been faltering recently, while A&M has been hot.  The Aggies also played their way into the NCAA's late in the season. It should be a hard fought matchup.

2 Michigan State (Big Ten) 26-6

15 Radford (Big South) 21-11

Michigan State's loss to Ohio State cost them a legitimate shot at a No. 1 seed. Spartans have more real good wins then anyone, mostly thanks to the Big Ten, where they were regular season champs. 13 top 50 wins by Michigan State is three more than any other team in the nation.

Midwest

1 UNC (ACC) 28-4

16 Cal State-Northridge (Big West) 17-13

UNC still holds their No. 1 seed, mostly because of only having 4 losses, and winning the solid ACC outright. Beating Duke twice helps. Northridge got in yesterday with an overtime win over Pacific, who hasn't been the same since the days of Michael Olowokandi.

8 Texas (Big 12) 22-11

9 Wisconsin (Big Ten) 19-12

This is a rematch of a close game in December at Wisconsin—both teams are capable of beating anyone, but both have been very inconsistent this year.

5 West Virginia (Big East) 23-11

12 Western Kentucky (Sun Belt) 24-8

West Virginia had a very solid year in year two of the Bob Huggins era. Western Kentucky is trying to prove last year's Sweet 16 run was no fluke, despite losing a solid pro in Courtney Lee.

4 Xavier (A-10) 25-7

13 Northern Iowa (MVC) 23-10

Xavier is a hard team to figure out, but good enough to win several games and make a run in the tournament. Northern Iowa played their way in with an MVC final win over Illinois State.

6 Arizona State (Pac-10) 24-9

11 VCU (CAA) 24-9

Could be a great matchup with two college superstars and future first round picks with consensus All-American James Harden and mid-major great Eric Maynor, who beat Duke as an 11-seed two years ago.

3 Missouri (Big 12) 28-6

14 Cornell (Ivy) 21-9

Mike Anderson's revised "40 minutes of Hell" scheme is finally paying off for Missouri after using it at UAB. Cornell was the first team to officially receive their automatic bid, and could provide a tough game for whoever they play.

7 Marquette (Big East) 24-9

10 Minnesota (Big Ten) 22-10

These are two teams on the decline—Minnesota barely got in with a couple wins late, but nine top 100 and five top 50 wins are enough to get in as an at-large. Marquette has gone 1-5 without Dominic James (counting the game where he was hurt), and could have been as high as a three-seed before that injury.

2 Memphis (C-USA) 31-3

15 Robert Morris (NEC) 24-10

Though Memphis is on a tremendous winning streak, the main reason I have them as a two-seed instead of a one is the lack of great wins.

Their two best wins are very good ones—at Tennessee and at Gonzaga, but their next best win is probably against Cincinnati, or in conference against UAB and Tulsa.

They have fewer top-50 wins than NIT-bound Northwestern, but they are still dangerous, and only have three losses. Robert Morris is my best 15-seed, and could keep the game close.

West

1 Duke (ACC) 28-6

16 Alabama State (SWAC) 22-9

Yes. Duke is a one-seed, after beating Florida State. With the win Sunday, Duke has more top 100 wins than anyone in the country with 18, passing Oklahoma, and would have six top 25 wins. Alabama State avoids the play-in game with 22 wins.

8 Ohio State (Big Ten) 22-9

9 BYU (MWC) 25-7

Ohio State could move up with a win Sunday, but will not be considered since the game will end too close to the deadline. BYU dropped a couple seeds with the MWC semifinal loss to San Diego State, and their great home court advantage doesn't work as well in the tournament.

5 UCLA (Pac-10) 25-8

12 Creighton (MVC) 26-7

UCLA will be seeded a line or two higher than they should in honor of their Final Four run in recent years. This is not as good a team, but they are still dangerous because of their history.

Creighton is in my last three in, but 26 wins and nine top 100 wins should be enough.

(For Maryland fans, though there have been teams below-.500 in conference that made the tournament, I am not putting Maryland in for that reason. If they would have beaten Duke, they would have made my bracket, because then their conference record and the tournament would be .500 (10-10), which is enough in the ACC.

4 Syracuse (Big East) 26-9

13 American (Patriot) 24-7

Great run by Syracuse again, but ran out of gas trying to play 4 7/8 games in four days and trying to beat two top-five teams during that run, succeeding once.

They moved up three seeds in my opinion because of this week. American could pull off a shocker if Syracuse can't recover, as had happened two years ago after winning four games in four days.

6 Utah (MWC) 24-9

11 Michigan (Big Ten) 20-13

Michigan's big-time wins gets them in the tournament. I think the committee still remembers when they beat Duke when Duke was playing like the best team in America.

10 top 100 wins and six top 50 wins add up to a good resume, even with 13 losses. Utah will be under-seeded because of a bad loss early, but it wouldn't surprise if me if they were as high as a four-seed. They might move up on the update.

3 Kansas (Big 12) 25-7

14 Akron (MAC) 23-12

Kansas lost a chance to be a two-seed by losing to Baylor in the Big 12 quarterfinals. They could still make a run, but they are really young, and might fall back into losing early.

Akron is a good team, and relies on tough defense, as they showed in the MAC final against Buffalo, but barely survived Toledo (the worst team in the MAC) in overtime to even get to the MAC final to win.

7 Tennessee (SEC) 21-12

10 Boston College (ACC) 22-11

Tennessee loses a heartbreaker in the championship game of the SEC, but I moved them ahead of Cal anyway. Boston College has three losses against teams not in the RPI top 100, which is a lot for a tournament worthy team, but is 9-7 in the ACC, which gets most teams in.

2 Connecticut (Big East) 27-4

15 East Tennessee State (Atlantic Sun) 23-10

Connecticut moves up to a one-seed if Duke loses, and if were healthy as a team, might be a 1-seed anyway.

Jerome Dyson's injury probably cost them a one-seed not too unlike Kenyon Martin costing Cincinnati a one-seed with his injury almost a decade ago. East Tennessee State came back after a short absence, but this time did so without cult hero Tim Smith.

That's my list. Hope you all are more informed than you were minutes ago.