How To Win Your NCAA Tournament Bracket

The most exciting three weeks in sports gambling are ready to begin, and in most cases intelligent basketball saavy guys outthink themselves when it comes to filling out their brackets. Most office pools either have the woman who picks the teams based on seedings or the guy who thought it was a baseball pool winning the entire bracket.

Especially with last year, and four No. 1 seeds making the final four. Luckily this year, that probably will not happen, so I am here to use some historical data to help you fill out a better bracket.

1. Put all of the No. 1 seeds into the sweet 16. The No. 1 seeds this year may be a bit vulnerable, but only five out of 40 No. 1 seeds have lost in the 2nd round in the last decade. If you are crazy enough to pick a 2nd round upset of a  No. 1, pick it in the West. It's happened three times out there.

2. Get rid of two of the No. 2 seeds in the 2nd round. In the last 10 years, 50 percent of No. 2 seeds have not made the sweet 16. This is where you can make up some big points on those who follow seed. Also in the last 10 years, only eight 8 No. 2 seeds have made the Final Four, five of those in the West Region. The last four years the No. 2 seed in the south has reached the Elite Eight, so if you pick half of the No. 2 seeds to lose, your best bets are probably the Midwest and the East.

3. The No. 3 seeds are a bit trickier. For example, the last time the No. 3 seed in the South went to the Elite Eight, it was 1999. 60 percent of the No. 3 seeds in the East are out by the 2nd round. Then in the midwest, 80 percent of the No. 3 seeds make the Sweet 16. Just make sure to pick all of the No. 3 seeds to round tow. A No. 14 seed may win, but if you are so confident in that happening, bet the actual game. The odds are way better.

4. Pick one No. 13 seed to beat a No. 4 seed. Last year, it happened twice, in the same building, with San Diego and Siena. This is another case where you can get great odds outside of the bracket. Last year, San Diego was 5 to 1 to beat UConn. The  No. 4 seeds in the South, Midwest and West have lost three times in the last decade. The No. 4 seed has lost in the East. Half of the No. 4 seeds in the Midwest make the Sweet 16, so the South or West may be the best bet for an upset here.

5. Pick at least one No. 12 seed to win, two you are confident the No. 5 seed will lose in round two no matter what. Last year, it happened twice, in crazy Tampa, with Western Kentucky and Villanova. In the East and in the Midwest, it's a 50/50 game. The only trick in the East is that four of the five No. 5 seeds that have won that game, advance to at least the Sweet 16. The Midwest is probably the best bet here, because most of the No. 5 seeds that do make it through lose in round two.

6. Pick only one No. 6 seed to lose. Amazingly, No. 11 seeds are worse bets than No. 12 seeds. In the South, only one No. 11 seed has won in the last 10 years. Six seeds are most dangerous in the East, where No. 3 of them have went to the Elite Eight. Then again, an No. 11 seed also went to the Final Four in the East. 2006 was a crazy year for the bracket, and so much fun.

7. Pick one or two No. 7 seeds to lose. This is where to have to be really smart, since you need two teams from these games to go to the Sweet 16. In the east, four out of 10 No. 10 seeds have made the Sweet 16. Last year, Davidson and West Virginia made it, one of each seed. Look for a No. 7 seed playing an at-large team that doesn't really seem deserving, and the No. 10 seed is usually a smaller upstart school.

8. The No. 8 vs No. 9 game is a 50/50 game, and frankly it doesn't matter much, since almost all of them lose in round two. If it is like the year 2000, where two No. 8 seeds make the final four, throw out your bracket and start watching baseball, because the tournament will blow.

9. No more than two No. 1 seeds in the Final Four. I know last year all four of them made it, but then again last year all four of them were powerhouses. This year, do any of them look solid?

10. Tips to know you are on the right track. After you fill out the bracket, in round one, the better seed should win 23 or 24 of the games. After the 2nd round, there should be around 10 better seeds in the Sweet 16. The Elite Eight should be probably about 4-5. This is a good guide to let you know you are not being too crazy with your picks.