Missouri-Baylor: Big 12 Final, March 14

No. 3 Missouri (27-6, 12-4) vs. No. 9 Baylor (20-13, 5-11)

Saturday, March 14 at 6:00 p.m. EST

Spread: Missouri -5.0

Backcourt Advantage: Even

The Baylor Bears are bubble teams' worst nightmare. The Bears' improbable run through the Big 12 tournament continued Friday as they knocked off the Texas Longhorns 76-70.

Now the ninth-seeded Bears find themselves playing for an automatic bid to the NCAA tournament. They are the lowest seeded team to make the Big 12 final since Missouri did it in the conference's inaugural 1996-97 season as a 10-seed.

Baylor has been led by its talented backcourt trio of Curtis Jerrells (16.1 PPG), LaceDarius Dunn (15.4 PPG), and Henry Dugat (10.1 PPG). Dunn has been on fire in the tournament, averaging 19.3 points per game in their three wins.

Dunn hit six three-pointers in their second round win over Kansas and then followed that up by hitting the go-ahead three-pointer in their semifinal win over Texas.

Dugat also stepped up in the semifinals, leading Baylor's backcourt in scoring with 17 points. It was his first game with double-digit points since Feb 2. Dugat, who had been a starter all season, has been asked to come off the bench in their three tournament games.

It was a rough transition for Dugat as he was only able to score nine points combined in the first two rounds, but he found his groove against Texas, knocking down 6-of-9 from the field while going a perfect 4-for-4 from the free throw line.

Missouri overcame a poor shooting night to beat Oklahoma State 67-59 in the semifinals. Missouri only shot 37.5 percent, but its swarming defense held the conference's highest-scoring offense to just 35.6 percent and a season-low 59 points.

Junior guard Zaire Taylor (6.1 PPG, 3.6 APG) led the Tigers with a season-high 19 points. He and fellow junior J.T. Tiller (8.0 PPG, 3.6 APG) applied constant pressure on defense and kept pushing the tempo on offense. 

Despite what the score implies, it was a fast-paced game, but it wasn't pretty. Missouri's offense wasn't clicking, but its defense sure was, and that proved to be enough for the Tigers to move on to the Big 12 final. 

The Tigers will attack the Bears with their up-tempo style and high-pressure defense. Baylor has the backcourt experience to handle this pressure, but Missouri's relentless pressure has its way of wearing on teams in the second half.

Baylor will have a slight edge in the backcourt with Dunn and Jerrells leading the way, but in the second half, that advantage could shift to the Tigers. 

Frontcourt Advantage: Missouri

Senior forwards DeMarre Carroll (16.7 PPG) and Leo Lyons (14.3 PPG) are hoping to get Missouri's offense back on track. The duo went on a scoring binge against Baylor in their regular season meeting on Jan. 31 in Columbia. 

Carroll and Lyons scored 25 and 30 points, respectively, as Missouri won easily 89-72. After only holding a one-point halftime lead, the Tigers outscored the Bears 49-33 in the second half.

Baylor advanced to the final with talent and a little bit of luck, as Texas big man Dexter Pittman was confined to the bench because of foul trouble. Pittman had been averaging 17.5 points and 15 rebounds in the Big 12 tournament, but finished with only seven points and three rebounds.

Pittman's absence opened things up inside for Baylor forward Kevin Rogers (12.3 PPG, 7.6 RPG). Rogers led the Bears with 20 points, his highest total since scoring a season-high 21 points back in December.

Rogers will need some help inside to slow down both Carroll and Lyons in this game though.

The Bears will mostly be attacking from the perimeter, but against Missouri's aggressive defensive pressure, the guards will need to find a way to get the ball to Rogers behind the defense for some easy buckets.

Rogers led the Bears with 18 points in their loss to the Tigers in January, but he won't be able to keep Baylor in this game alone.

Momentum: Even

Baylor has everything to gain in this game as they are playing for an automatic berth into the NCAA tournament. It would be their second consecutive trip to the Big Dance after a 19-year drought. A loss would send them to the NIT.

This is Baylor's first trip to the Big 12 tournament final.

Missouri is 10-2 in its last 12 games and is hoping the third time's the charm for them in the Big 12 final. The Tigers are making their third appearance in the title game, but a win would give them their first Big 12 tourney championship.

Like their regular season meeting, I expect this to be a close game until the second half, where the Tigers' pressure will start to break down the Bears. Look for Missouri to pull away late and end Baylor's Cinderella run.

The Tigers will be cutting down the nets in Oklahoma City.

Shaun's Pick: Missouri -5.0

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