Gregg Popovich's Philosophy Will Win Tonight's Vaunted Spurs-Lakers Matchup

The San Antonio Spurs will host the Los Angeles Lakers in the first game of TNT's much-hyped Thursday night doubleheader.

This battle features the teams with the Western Conference's top two records, and the winner grabs the season series. Most analysts presume these two squads will face off again in the Western Conference Finals in May.

So, given the importance of this game, its sheer magnitude, and the prospect that it will be another classic, Manu Ginobili will make his return three weeks after team doctors diagnosed him with a stress reaction in his right foot, right?

He will play however many minutes it takes to wrestle away this game from the confident Lakers, right?

The Spurs signed forward Drew Gooden to bolster the frontline for this specific matchup. Coach Gregg Popovich will finally debut his newest toy tonight so he can see what Gooden might do in a playoff rematch, right?

Wrong.

You don't know Gregg Popovich, do you?

The long-bearded, grumpy ol' coach told the San Antonio Express-News and other area outlets that Ginobili will likely sit at least another week. Gooden could see action sooner, but it will not be tonight.

Popovich's protective, cautious philosophy is worth noting as these two West powers prepare for another fight.

He cares about the result of this game. He does. If the Spurs win, he will praise the performers who made it happen. If they lose and the defense implodes, he will let them know how bad it was.

However, he does not care about this game enough to risk the health of the player he calls "the difference between a first-round exit and a championship."

Ginobili played at less than 60 percent, with a bum ankle leaving him hobbled, the last time these squads met in the postseason. His injured output cost the Spurs any chance of winning the series.

Popovich is determined not to let that happen again.

That would be why the coach has kept Gooden in a sport coat on the bench for a week and a half. No one in the Spurs' organization knows if or how the 27-year-old will fit into the rotation.

Will Gooden supplant Matt Bonner in the starting lineup? Will he steal minutes from Kurt Thomas? Will Fabricio Oberto play at all once Gooden joins the fold?

Popovich has no answer to any of these questions with the playoffs just a month away.

He prefers to set a rotation by late February or early March. Injuries to his star players and the uncertainty of Gooden's groin have wrecked those usual plans.

With his team's second seed far from locked up, Popovich is willing to risk a free-fall in the standings if it means he gets Ginobili back at full health for a playoff run.

He would rather be the seventh or eighth seed with his star trio at 100 percent than be first or second with one or two of those studs at less than 80 percent.

You cannot win a championship if your best players are injured. Popovich believes that.

His decision to sit Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, Ginobili and Michael Finley in what many viewed as a pivotal game against the Denver Nuggets spurred a national uproar.

The message sent after the Spurs' role players nearly defeated the Nuggets? Popovich would rather open a series against Denver at the Pepsi Center at full strength than at the AT&T Center with a battered rotation.

The Spurs, of course, are going to beat the Nuggets wherever that series is played—Denver, San Antonio, Rucker Park, Antarctica, The Temple of Doom, Outer Space.

Even Chauncey Billups cannot change that.

Tonight's game means less than most think it does. The supporting cast will try its best to help Parker and Duncan deliver a win.

If the Spurs lose, and it becomes clear that Ginobili or Gooden would have made the difference? Popovich will shrug and hope both players are healthy in a few weeks.

Duncan begged to play in a home contest against the East-leading Cleveland Cavaliers two weeks ago after missing the previous two with sore knees. The medical staff had cleared him to play, but Popovich stepped in and said "uh-uh, Timmy."

The Spurs lost that game 97-86.

That final result ranks somewhere below who wins the Celebrity Apprentice on Pop's scale of importance.

If the absence of Ginobili tonight yields a similar final score, Popovich will know he won anyway.

He always does.