NHL Lockout: Predicting What the New CBA Will Actually Look Like

Despite the lack of optimism created by the NHL and the NHLPA from their comments following Thursday's CBA talks in Toronto, the two sides really aren't too far apart from making a deal.

Progress was made because both sides have acknowledged that a 50-50 split of hockey-related revenues will have to happen at some point in the next agreement.

Let's look at what the next CBA should look like, as well as a prediction for when the 2012-13 regular season will begin.

Hockey-Related Revenues (HRR) Split

The main issue in HRR right now is figuring out when the two sides will reach a 50-50 split. The first year is absolutely crucial in the new CBA, and once the HRR split for the first season can be agreed on, the remaining years should be much easier to finalize.

The players have agreed to reach 50-50, but not right away, which is a step towards a deal, but there's no question that a considerable financial gap remains between the two parties.

If the league continues to grow revenues between five and eight percent, which is entirely possible given the game's growth since the previous lockout, the players should be comfortable getting to 50-50 sooner than when their proposals from Thursday indicated they would.

The biggest stumbling block in finding an agreeable HRR split is figuring out a way to honor all players' current contracts while also getting to 50-50 as soon as possible. Once this solution is found, the road to a new deal will be found.

To satisfy both sides' demands, starting the new CBA at 52-48, then going to 51-49 in the second year, then staying at 50-50 for the remaining four years would be a good compromise for both sides, and may be enough to help keep current contracts intact, which is certainly a top priority for the NHLPA.

Revenue Sharing

As I explained last week, there's about a $50 million per season difference in what both sides want the total revenue sharing pool figure to be.

If the two sides meet in the middle at about $225 million, revenue sharing would be much more effective in the new CBA, and more teams would be allowed to benefit from it.

One of the reasons why the revenue sharing model used in the last CBA was broken is because it didn't allow teams in certain markets to benefit.

The NHL changed this in their latest offer (via Dave Shoalts of The Globe and Mail), and for teams struggling financially in these markets, this change is a significant one.

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One interesting wrinkle in NHL's offer on revenue sharing - clubs in large media markets and top half of NHL revenue no longer ineligible.

— David Shoalts (@dshoalts) October 17, 2012"

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This means New York Islanders, New Jersey Devils, Anaheim Ducks, for example, can now collect revenue-sharing dollars.

— David Shoalts (@dshoalts) October 17, 2012"

Increasing the amount of money in the revenue sharing pool, allowing more teams to benefit while at the same time satisfying the large-market owners, was going to be tough, but as Shoalts explains, all of these goals may have been accomplished.

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However, by adding more teams to revenue-sharing mix the rich teams should save some money under new offer.

— David Shoalts (@dshoalts) October 17, 2012"

CBA Length

I don't think this will be a major issue for either side. The NHL proposed a six-year deal last week with an option for another year. In the end, seven years with an option for an eighth year sounds like a reasonable term for the owners and players.

Don't expect both sides to exercise the option because the owners have shown multiple times in the last 20 years that they are willing to go into a lockout in an attempt to improve their situation.

Contract Issues

The NHL's proposal from last week included several changes to player contracts, and even through the players don't want any of these changes, some of them would actually help the league as a whole. Here is a summary of these changes outlined in the league's offer, via TSN's Bob McKenzie.

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1. Entry level would go from 3 to 2 yrs. 2. Salary arb eligibility would go from 4th to 5th yr. 3. UFA goes 7/27 (service/age) to 8/28.

— Bob McKenzie (@TSNBobMcKenzie) October 17, 2012"

By making all entry-level contracts two seasons in length, the NHL is attempting to control a player's second contract to prevent inexperienced players from earning high salaries before they establish themselves.

The players want ELCs to stay the same, but making the term limit for these deals two years could increase the amount of talent in NCAA hockey because young players would probably be more likely to stay in school for another year if they weren't able to get three years on their ELC.

This would likely result in the players coming into the NHL from college more prepared for the challenges that they will face as professionals both on and off the ice.

Regarding term limits, I mentioned last week that term limits of seven or eight years should be a good middle ground for both sides.

Donald Fehr reiterated on Thursday that the players still don't want any changes to contracts, but good luck accomplishing this goal. There's no way that the players will maintain all their contract rules from the previous CBA and still get a new deal done in time to save the season.

As long as the players don't demand 10-year limits, the owners will probably budge on their demand for five-year term limits. The free-agent age is also an issue that the players will fight hard for during these labor negotiations. They want to hit the free-agent market as soon as possible and earn their first major payday.

The NHLPA would be wise to accept changes to ELCs and salary arbitration in order to keep the UFA age the same and prevent term limits from being five years.

Recap

To recap, here is my view on what the new CBA will look like:

HRR Split (NHLPA-NHL): 52-48, 51-49, 50-50, 50-50, 50-50, 50-50

Revenue Sharing: $200 million pool shared among all teams with need

CBA Term: Seven years with a mutual option for an eighth

Term Limits: Eight Years

UFA Eligibility: 27 years or seven years of NHL experience

Salary Arbitration: Fifth year

Entry-Level Contracts: Two years in length

My prediction for when the season will start is November 2, which would allow for all 82 games to be played.

This is an optimistic prediction, but since the foundation for a deal is already in place, the two sides are close enough that an agreement can be made by Thursday's deadline to save a full season.

As I've said all along, the players will decide when a deal is done. They could have taken the league's offer a few days before the lockout, and wisely waited for a better one.

Will they continue to wait and hope the owners make even more concessions? Given Donald Fehr's history as a labor leader, it wouldn't be surprising if they tried to get a better agreement by taking this process beyond Thursday.

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Nicholas Goss is an NHL Lead Writer at Bleacher Report. He was also the organization's on-site reporter for the 2011 Stanley Cup Final in Boston. Follow him on Twitter.