Villanova In The NCAAs: Strengths and Pitfalls

On the eve of their first Big East tournament game, Villanova is 25-6 overall and 13-5 in the Big East.  The latter is good enough for a No. 4 seed in the Big East tournament, which yields them a double bye in the Madison Square Garden tournament of all 16 Big East teams.

This week, Villanova ranks No. 13 in the USAToday/ESPN Coaches' Poll and No. 10 in the AP Writers' Poll.  Their current RPI is 14, which is very good for any resume.  Let's take a closer look at their assets and their Big East season.

Villanova is a bigger than average Division I club, especially in the backcourt.  Up front, they start three seniors, 6'8" Dante Cunningham, a much improved player this year, 6'6" swingman Duane Anderson, and 6'7" Shane Clark.  A 6'6", 235-pound sophomore enforcer Antonio Pena provides the three frontcourt starters individual rest while he softens up opposing big men for them.

Coach Jay Wright rotates four talented guards through his backcourt.  He starts two juniors, McDonald's All-American 6'2" Scottie Reynolds and 6'5" ball protector Reggie Reynolds.  They are backed up by two immensely talented sophomore guards, 6'1" Corey Fisher and 6'5" Corey Stokes, a catch and shoot three-point specialist.

Villanova's pre-conference play was against a group of undistinguished teams, except for one.  As examples, their seventh and eighth games of the season were wins over Philly's University of Pennsylvania, now 259 in the RPI, and Houston Baptist, now 312 in the RPI.

Their next game was a tough 68-58 loss to Texas (current RPI 35) on a technically neutral Madison Square Garden.

I was at the game, and it was very much a Villanova crowd.  New Yorkers aren't all sure where Texas is, but they think of it as far away.  Also, there were quite a few folks from Philly in the Garden that night.

The game was a reality check for Villanova which had been gobbling up inferior teams until that night.  My view is that Villanova's talented sophomores were still only a few games into their sophomore year back in early December.  Now with 31 games under their belts, they are sophomores going on juniors.  What a difference a year makes.

This entire team has gelled.  Please bear with an explanation.

Villanova and their Big East rivals played 18 league games this year.  During the first six of those games, the first third of the league season, Villanova's record was 3-3, and their average scoring margin was a positive 3.0 points.  They averaged 75.0 points on offense and 72.0 points on defense. 

The Big East opener was an inauspicious but not terrible 72-79 loss to Marquette in Milwaukee.  During those first six conference games, Villanova also lost to Louisville by one point at home and to Connecticut by nine on the road.  These were not bad games, but 3-3 is not 13-5.

During the next third of the Big East season, Villanova's offense gelled.  Their record for the second six league games was 5-1.  Their average scoring margin was a positive 8.0 points.  They averaged 84.7 points on offense and 76.7 points on defense.

The last third of the Big East season also yielded a 5-1 record, giving them a 10-2 record in the Big East for their last dozen games.  Their scoring margin for the last six games was about the same as the second six league games, a positive 7.83 points per game.

However, the key to the last six games was that they averaged a cool 78.8 points per game on offense and held their defense of Big East teams to 71.0 points per game.

So, Villanova is going into the Big East tournament with all eight pistons firing.  They have stabilized Jay Wright's game plan.  They would have little excuse were they to lose to Marquette in the Garden tomorrow, especially with Domenic James out.

However, let's go back to the matter of team size raised at the outset.  They are a slightly larger than average sized Division one club, with a smallish frontcourt and a large and physical backcourt. 

Villanova is peaking, but up front Dante Cunningham and Antonio Pena have been foul-prone.  I worry when they play really big teams.  A few numbers to consider:

Villanova's average height is 77.1 inches.  Connecticut's is 78.2 inches, a big club.  Florida State averages 78.9 inches.  Memphis is 78.7 inches.  Wake Forest is 78.3 inches and West Virginia is 78.5 inches.  Villanova lost to West Virginia by 11 points, albeit on the road. 

These are all pretty much Eastern teams, and I am hopeful that Villanova will be about a three seed and remain in the Eastern region.  I worry about big frontcourts but am very optimistic that 'Nova's seniors, juniors, and sophomores have all gelled into a very effective machine.  Jay Wright keeps doing that.