The Atlanta Hawks' New Challenge: Meeting Expectations

Shock the world once, and it's hard to do it again.

So people might see the Atlanta Hawks coming this year. They have been in one of the top four spots in the Eastern Conference since the first week of the season. It's been brewing all year, so an appearance in the Playoffs and possibly making some noise once there is almost...expected.

Wait...an expected postseason appearance? Doesn't sound much like the recent Hawks.

But after the '08 trade deadline deal to acquire Mike Bibby, a surprising showing in the first round against the Boston Celtics, and further maturation and solidification through the 2008-09 campaign, the ATLiens probably shouldn't be taken too lightly.

Of course, the regular season ain't over yet. With the Miami Heat just 1.5 games out of Atlanta's spot, the Hawks aren't guaranteed a home-court seeding.

That being said, neither of those two teams will slip down to the sixth spot. Not to slight the Detroit Pistons, a team that looks better by the day and might just be better with Allen Iverson coming off the bench; it's just that the two Southeast Division squads seem pretty locked in for the final sprint.

The good news for the young men in the navy and red is that they play 12 of their last 18 at home (where they're 22-7 so far this season), so their chances of maintaining their rank are decent. It's not as though the easiest teams in the league are coming to Philips Arena, but the odds of the Hawks going at least 9-9 and flipping last season's record of 37-45 are pretty good.

So, assuming the standings hold more or less steady, the opening round would see...

No. 4 Atlanta Hawks v. No. 5 Miami Heat

A main dish of two scrappy Southern teams. Oh yeah, youth will most certainly be served as well.

The season series is tilted towards the Hawks at the moment, 2-1; there's one more coming between them, on April 14, at Philips. Though these two clubs are very comparable, the results of the regular-campaign games have been pretty lopsided; none has been decided by single figures.

Much has been said of Atlanta's improving defense recently, and it was showcased in the latest meeting with Miami, when the home team held Dwyane Wade to 21 points and Jermaine O'Neal to just eight. Of course, the visitors had rookie Michael Beasley go off for 23 off the bench, so one can't say the Iron Curtain was put down in the Dirty.

The keys in a seven-game series pitting these upstarts would be the aforementioned Hawks' defense and Josh Smith's role in it and of course, D-Wade's ability to put his group on his back.

Smoove must play maturely for the Atlanta D to truly be formidable. He is the one on the roster who blocks shots reliably, and he absolutely must remain invested in every possession. If Josh were to go into lulls and not keep up with assignments (likely Beasley, O'Neal, and Jamario Moon), the Heat could punish the Hawks.

It's a total wild card (or is it?), but the Flash's penchant for heroics could also play a big role. Not too long ago, the Dallas Mavericks forgot about this little quality of the former Finals MVP, and they paid for it dearly. Dude knows how to get to the basket and dude definitely knows how to get to the line.

Or, Miami could continue their post-trade push and edge the Birds and then there'd be...

No. 4 Miami Heat v. No. 5 Atlanta Hawks

In late April and early May of last year, the city of Atlanta woke up in terms of support for their basketball franchise; for the first time all year—strike that, for the first time in years—Philips was selling out and people were chatting on the street of the team's success.

The Hawks won every home game in the series versus the Celtics, and no one who watched those contests could say that the "sixth man" that was the fans didn't influence the outcome. Philips is no EnergySolutions, but...

The point is, not having home-court advantage would mean, most likely, the same result as the '08 Playoffs: an exciting, extended series in which the Hawks look terrified on the road.

The team is a year older and more seasoned. The bench, instead of young, skinny Josh Childress, has beefy Maurice Evans and experienced Flip Murray.

But all that would amount to is that the away losses wouldn't be quite such blowouts, as they were in Boston.

Now, if worst comes to absolute worst, both the Heat and the Pistons could overtake Atlanta. For the sake of variety, here's what the first round would feature in that scenario...

No. 3 Orlando Magic v. No. 6 Atlanta Hawks

The Magic are, plain and simple, the division rival that the Hawks do not want to see.

Yes, Jameer Nelson suffered a season-ending injury. The Magic laughed in the face of adversity, making a shrewd trade for excellent replacement Rafer Alston.

Yes, Al Horford matches up better than most against Dwight Howard. That doesn't mean he matches up well against the man-beast, though.

Yes, Atlanta's D is improving. But what they do well is swarm to the ball to trap and create turnovers. Could they really close out fast enough on Orlando's myriad sharpshooters?

The Magic could throw enough solid perimeter defenders (Mickael Pietrus, Courtney Lee) at Joe Johnson and Mike Bibby to sufficiently stifle their scoring; meanwhile, their frightening cadre of three-point specialists (Hedo Turkoglu, Rashard Lewis) would bury long balls and the Hawks' chances of winning.

Their chances of winning the series' games on the road, that is.

That seems to be what the first round will come down to for the Atlanta Hawks: home-court advantage. There is undoubtedly a lot to be excited about with this group, but in just their second year at a competitive level, they still aren't heady enough to perform consistently away from friendly confines.