NFL Picks Week 7: Analyzing Expert Predictions from Around the Web
Hey, NFL, are you done with the craziness?
Week 3 was epically wild.
Week 6 was the rebellious younger brother.
Actually, you would be fine if the craziness ensued, wouldn't you?
For me, someone picking winners for all of Week 7's late games, a quasi return to normalcy is welcomed.
Then again, what is considered normal in today's parity-, or mediocrity-filled NFL?
Let's take a look at predictions from some of the professional football experts around the web—Bleacher Report's Michael Schottey and Matt Miller, ESPN's Chris Mortensen, CBSSports' Pete Prisco and NFL.com's Gregg Rosenthal.
I'll add my picks for consideration.
(I'm 54-37 through Week 6.)
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers
1 of 13Schottey: 49ers
Miller: 49ers
Mortensen: 49ers
Prisco: 49ers
Rosenthal: 49ers
Me: 49ers
Well, that was easy.
A clean sweep for San Francisco.
The 49ers were embarrassed at home by the New York Giants last week, and the Seahawks upended Tom Brady and the New England Patriots at home.
Seattle's offense doesn't get the credit it rightfully deserves, but in reality, it's far from a dynamic unit. They're 23rd in yards gained per drive and 20th in points scored per drive.
Russell Wilson does have a flair for the dramatic inside the frame that many believed was too small to play quarterback in the NFL, and has shown a tremendous propensity to come up with the big play in crunch time.
The defense is super stingy. Both against the run and the pass.
Then again, so is the 49ers' vaunted unit.
It's funny, the Seattle and San Francisco defenses are No. 5 and No. 6 in yards allowed per drive and No. 3 and No. 4 in points allowed per drive, respectively.
Still, the 49ers offense is further along than the Seahawks', and Alex Smith gets back on track in what will be a tightly contested NFC West battle.
Tennessee Titans at Buffalo Bills
2 of 13Schottey: Titans
Miller: Bills
Mortensen: Bills
Prisco: Bills
Rosenthal: Titans
Me: Bills
Neither club boasts a incredibly stout defense.
Tennessee has faced a gauntlet of good quarterbacks who operate efficient offenses, like Tom Brady, Philip Rivers, Matthew Stafford, Matt Schaub and Ben Roethlisberger, so their disappointing numbers may be slightly skewed.
No team allows more points per drive than Mike Munchak's group.
Remember, though, the Bills defense, a unit that was said to be among the best in football prior to the start of the season, hasn't been much better.
They've feasted on uncomfortable quarterbacks who struggle with accuracy and have been shredded by Brady, Alex Smith and even Mark Sanchez.
These two teams, to me, appear to be eerily similar.
The winner of the Chris Johnson vs. C.J. Spiller duel will likely lead his squad to victory, and I expect both speedsters to piece together fine afternoons in Orchard Park.
In the end, Buffalo's defense line, a group that looks to be gelling together as a cohesive foursome, will make more plays than Tennessee's, and the Bills home-field advantage leads to a close win.
Matt Hasselbeck and Ryan Fitzpatrick push.
Washington Redskins at New York Giants
3 of 13Schottey: Giants
Miller: Redskins
Mortensen: Giants
Prisco: Giants
Rosenthal: Giants
Me: Giants
Not surprisingly, the G-Men took the majority here.
Robert Griffin III, is, clearly, the X-factor any time he's on the field. Even with a relatively underwhelming supporting cast, RG3 has been able to make huge plays every week.
Is it just me, or does Griffin III make everyone around him better?
Eli Manning and the Giants want to enact revenge on these pesky 'Skins—the group that swept the regular season series in 2011.
There will be an abundance of huge plays in this one, and don't forget about the steadiness of Washington running back Alfred Morris.
I expect Griffin III to give the Redskins a lead late, but Eli to be Eli on a final drive that wins it for New York.
New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
4 of 13Schottey: Buccaneers
Miller: Saints
Mortensen: Saints
Prisco: Buccaneers
Rosenthal: Buccaneers
Me: Saints
I am back on the Saints' bandwagon. Kind of.
Their defense is far from impressive, but, heck, with Drew Brees, who needs a defense?
Josh Freeman and the Buccaneers will undoubtedly be able to move the football against a club allowing the most yards per drive this season, but the question is, will they be able to stay with Brees on the scoreboard?
Something tells me, Brees will put the ball in the end zone on more trips to the red zone than Freeman does.
Only the Denver Broncos score more touchdowns per drive than the Saints.
In Tampa Bay, this will be a competitive battle, but New Orleans' offense is too much.
Shootout.
Saints win.
Dallas Cowboys at Carolina Panthers
5 of 13Schottey: Panthers
Miller: Cowboys
Mortensen: Cowboys
Prisco: Cowboys
Rosenthal: Panthers
Me: Panthers
OK, Cam Newton, this is your final straw.
I've been rather generous over your first five games. Time to get it together.
You have the Dallas Cowboys, a team that turns the ball over on nearly 30 percent of its drives, and struggles mightily with consistency on both sides of the ball.
You are coming off the bye week. You've been given ample time to sulk, forget about the 1-4 record, and start playing football the way you're capable of playing football.
Your defense might have problems with the Cowboys' offensive attack that can be dynamic when it wants to be, but you can score with them.
In another shootout, 2012 Cam channels his inner 2011 Cam, and the Panthers get an absolutely much-needed victory.
Baltimore Ravens at Houston Texans
6 of 13Schottey: Texans
Miller: Texans
Mortensen: Texans
Prisco: Texans
Rosenthal: Texans
Me: Texans
A week ago, I bet the picks wouldn't have been unanimous.
It seems to be the trendy thing to bet against a Raw Lewis- and Lardarius Webb-less Baltimore Ravens group, so, who am I not to follow?
In all seriousness, I'm not just picking the Texans because just about everyone else is; the losses of Lewis and Webb are huge to a defense that has been surprisingly susceptible this season.
The Texans were spanked by the Green Bay Packers on Sunday night, thanks to a virtuoso performance by Aaron Rodgers, but don't expect Joe Flacco to do the same.
However, the Ravens offense will be able to move the football with a steady dose of Ray Rice and the deadly play-action passing game—something with which Houston is extremely familiar.
Remember, no Brian Cushing in the middle for the Texans.
This game will be much closer than everyone initially believes, but J.J. Watt and Co. will make more plays late, and Arian Foster will lean on Baltimore's run defense before it ultimately collapses in the fourth quarter.
Cleveland Browns at Indianapolis Colts
7 of 13Schottey: Colts
Miller: Browns
Mortensen: Browns
Prisco: Colts
Rosenthal: Colts
Me: Colts
Miller and Mortensen like the Browns. I like Andrew Luck at home.
Sure, he and his Colts looked like a 1-15 club from a year ago against the New York Jets last week, but Indianapolis is much more effective inside the confines of Lucas Oil Stadium.
Luck's completion percentage is nearly five points higher at home, and his QB rating jumps from 52.1 on the road to 85.4 in Indy.
Neither club boasts a stout defense, but the Browns or Colts' defensive units certainly aren't pathetic—Joe Haden helps Cleveland's defense tremendously.
Following the trend, this will be another high-scoring affair. It'll come down to the quarterbacks in the second half.
Who are you picking?
I'm going with Andrew Luck over Brandon Weeden.
Green Bay Packers at St. Louis Rams
8 of 13Schottey: Packers
Miller: Packers
Mortensen: Packers
Prisco: Packers
Rosenthal: Packers
Me: Packers
Let's make this quick.
The Packers are back.
Yup, Aaron Rodgers finally has locked in that magical rapport with his wideouts—one that led to arguably the most prolific quarterbacking season in the history of the NFL in 2011.
The Rams secondary is allowing 208 yards per game and has two fine cornerbacks in veteran Cortland Finnegan and Janoris Jenkins—they'll have their hands full with the Packers receivers.
Simply put, the St. Louis offense won't be able to score with Rodgers' assault.
Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings
9 of 13Schottey: Vikings
Miller: Vikings
Mortensen: Vikings
Prisco: Vikings
Rosenthal: Vikings
Me: Vikings
Not that Kevin Kolb was exactly lighting the NFL on fire, but with a shaky and probably rusty John Skelton under center, the Cardinals offense goes from somewhat respectable to horrendous with really no semblance of explosiveness.
Sorry, Mr. Fitzgerald, you need a quarterback who can get you the ball.
The Vikings have proven to be a surprise in 2012, but they certainly aren't an elite club due to the lack of depth on offense and defense.
However, at home, Christian Ponder plays a typical efficient ball game, Adrian Peterson does his job on the ground against a run defense that allowed 141 yards to Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller last week, and the underrated Vikings defense, most specifically Jared Allen, wreaks immense havoc on Skelton and the Cardinals' running backs.
New York Jets at New England Patriots
10 of 13Schottey: Patriots
Miller: Patriots
Mortensen: Patriots
Prisco: Patriots
Rosenthal: Patriots
Me: Patriots
The Patriots are fresh off a rather stunning loss, the Jets off rather a stunning win.
Who would have thought?
Bill Belichick is pissed. Rex Ryan's confidence has momentarily returned. While I'm not one that usually takes things like that into consideration when picking a game, the Patriots and Jets is different.
It's a rivalry.
For as good as Ryan expects (read: Hopes) his defense can play, and for as powerful as he believes Shonn Greene is, I simply cannot envision Mark Sanchez going into Brady's house and beating him, again.
The talent disparity is just too much to overcome for what appears to be a Jets team that isn't quite ready to jump into the casket everyone's made for them this season.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Oakland Raiders
11 of 13Schottey: Raiders
Miller: Jaguars
Mortensen: Raiders
Prisco: Raiders
Rosenthal: Raiders
Me: Raiders
I've been a little surprised by this, but Carson Palmer actually hasn't be a liability for the Raiders this year.
Yes, some of his statistics have come in the infamous "garbage time", but believe me, if you told an Oakland fan that Palmer's QB rating would be 88.7 and he'd have a 2-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio through five games, they'd have been ecstatic.
The defense has struggled to get off the field—they've allowed the fewest punts per drive—and Darren McFadden has been slow to acclimate himself to the zone blocking scheme.
Against the Jacksonville Jaguars, a team that's clearly improved from a year ago but is near the bottom of the league in early every phase of the game, the Raiders will click.
The quarterback play won't be incredible, but right now, I'll take Palmer and the Raiders, inside the Black Hole, over Blaine Gabbert.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals
12 of 13Schottey: Bengals
Miller: Bengals
Mortensen: Bengals
Prisco: Bengals
Rosenthal: Steelers
Me: Bengals
Last year, I loved what Mike Zimmer did with the Bengals defense. To me, he was a prime head coaching candidate.
This year, his group has slightly regressed.
They aren't forcing turnovers and allowed 34 points in each game against a Cleveland Browns team that's averaged 18.5 points in its other four contests.
Andy Dalton's inconsistency hasn't helped in consecutive losses, either.
While his completion percentage, yards per attempt and touchdowns are up, so are his interceptions.
The Steelers are decimated by injuries, and like the Ravens, aren't nearly as fast on defense as they used to be.
The running game is the worst in football, averaging a un-Steelers-like 3.0 yards per carry. Pittsburgh isn't good enough through the air to be one-dimensional on offense.
At home, the Bengals should be able to make enough big plays on offense to offset the few turnovers that seem likely.
A.J. Green should have one hell of a day with Ike Taylor covering him.
In a shootout, Dalton somewhat shockingly beats Ben Roethlisberger.
Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears
13 of 13Schottey: Lions
Miller: Bears
Mortensen: Bears
Prisco: Bears
Rosenthal: Bears
Me: Lions
I still don't understand the Lions.
Matthew Stafford was about as bad as you can be through three-and-a-half quarters against the Philadelphia Eagles last week, then, Detroit's offense exploded.
A team that's now known for its slow starts should be up for this divisional game on the road, and their defense line will get to Jay Cutler early.
Brandon Marshall and Calvin Johnson will steal the show, and though it's close, I'll take Stafford and Megatron over the Bears' quarterback-receiver duo with the game on the line.
After turnover fests that turned into snoozers against the Dallas Cowboys and Jacksonville Jaguars, the Bears will be hit with a rude awakening against a powerful Lions offense that will ride momentum from Week 6's win to a huge divisional victory.
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