Portland Trail Blazers Down the Stretch

One NBA fan looks at the Portland Trail Blazers and sees a team loaded with athleticism and talent, a bench that goes a legitimate ten men deep, and a tightly-knit crew of youngsters led by the best young guard in the National Basketball Association.

Another fan looks and sees an inexperienced group of rookies and postseason newcomers, a team weak on the road, a team whose record indicates strong performance against lottery-bound bottom-feeders, and precious few wins against the NBA elite.

Who's right? Well, both of them. Or neither, depending on what night you tune in.

Truth is, the Blazers are an enigma in the Western Conference, but that uncertainty alone makes them a team nobody particularly wants to face in the first round of the Playoffs.

This assumes, of course, that the young Blazers even make the Playoffs, which, with 20 games left, is far from a foregone conclusion.

But here's what we do know:

• Brandon Roy has Arrived. 

That's "Arrived." With a capital A.

That may sound all too obvious, given his well-deserved hype, his second straight All-Star appearance, and his impressive stats. But it takes more than a coaches' selection and a 52-point eruption against Phoenix to Arrive in this league.

It takes game-tying layups. Game-winning threes. Clutch free throws.

You watch Roy play and you can't help but think to yourself, "This guy's got Playoff magic in him. It's just a matter of time." Should the Blazers make the postseason, chalk at least one win up in their first-round series to Brandon Roy just putting the whole thing on his back. That's what Dwyane Wade does, that's what Kobe does. That's what Roy will do.

At this point, the only thing separating Roy from the NBA's top tier is Playoff performance. Come April, he should get his first chance.

• Travis Outlaw will be one of the most pivotal players of any playoff series.

Brandon will get Brandon's, and LaMarcus Aldridge should continue to play well, but it will be Outlaw's ability to beat his man off the dribble and consistently drain the midrange J that makes the Blazers tough to beat.

His success on offense feeds his defense, which helps obscure a liability for the team.

And here's what we don't know:

• Will Portland be able to assert themselves in the post?

Joel Przybilla has been everything that the team asked for this season after signing him to what now seems like a staggeringly cheap $5-million, five-year contract.

Five million for a consistent double-double, some desperately needed muscle, and a credible defender? Have you seen what Chris Wilcox makes?

But if Greg Oden cannot provide at least 20 minutes a contest, the Blazers are alarmingly thin. Neither Aldridge nor Channing Frye can typically supply the physical presence that will be needed against the Spurs or Rockets.

Interesting that so much was made of the team's attempts to secure a PG or SF right before the trade deadline, yet what they may have needed more was a veteran big.

• Who's the No. 3 option?

As I stated above, the team can reasonably expect strong numbers from Roy and Aldridge, but who will be the consistent third option on offense? If the streaky Outlaw goes cold, who can create their own shot and break down a defender like he does? That's not Rudy Fernandez's game, nor Steve Blake's.

The Blazers have athleticism to spare in rookies Nicholas Batum and Jerryd Bayless, but it's not realistic to expect either to provide more than spirited defense, some silly fouls, and an occasional spark on offense.

So, who's afraid of the Blazers?

Honestly, I think the Lakers might be thinking that the Blazers are the team they least want to face in the first round. If I were them, I'd ten times rather face the Nuggets or Hornets; at least with those squads, you more or less know what you're going to get.

The Lakers may finish with 65 wins this year, but this string of losses in Portland has to be troubling. If the Blazers were to steal Game Two in L.A. on a fluke, a bad call, or a missed three at the buzzer, they'd have a pretty good look at a 3-1 lead heading back to L.A.

Now, that's not necessarily a likely scenario, but better believe that a first-round date with the Blazers is a situation Phil Jackson would like to avoid.

Meanwhile, I think the Blazers could be in big trouble in a seven-game series against a team with a more physical front line, like the aforementioned Spurs or Rockets.

Luis Scola has had some field days against Portland, and Tim Duncan no doubt has his eyes on some redemption after a lackluster 14-point, four-rebound showing in their last matchup.

Both these teams will seek to drag Portland into the sort of halfcourt game the Blazers claim to prefer yet haven't mastered. They'll look to create foul trouble in the post and open some lanes in the paint for penetration by Tony Parker or open looks for Aaron Brooks.

Through all of this speculation, though, it should be clear that the front office does not anticipate an extended run of any sort this postseason. They'll look to make the Playoffs and hope for some breaks in the first round, but Kevin Pritchard isn't stupid. He has a patient and prudent owner in Paul Allen, who understands that for all the excitement, this team is either on or ahead of schedule (depending on your viewpoint).

Witness the discipline to avoid a short-term fix before the trade deadline. Witness the care in monitoring injuries to both Oden and Martell Webster. There will be no mortgaging of the future for a too-uncertain present.

Ultimately, the Blazers have committed to a wait-and-see approach. And we'll just have to do the same.