Crunching the Numbers: Is There a Case for Dwyane Wade as MVP?

I haven’t written any articles like this here on Bleacher Report yet, but I felt like having some fun and decided there was a need to examine this topic.

I’ll probably write more of these in the future, exploring other players in the NBA, the NFL, MLB, and possibly even the NHL.

I might even leave my comfort zone, and explore other sports occasionally, such as tennis, golf, and motorsports; who knows.

There’s been plenty of discussion lately about Dwyane Wade, and whether he deserves to be named MVP. Much of it centers around whether he should even get serious consideration for the award.

There’s no surprise why all this discussion has suddenly flared up. Dwyane Wade, or D-Wade for the purposes of this article, is putting up astronomical numbers of late.

However, I’ve wondered if many of those discussing D-Wade and the MVP actually realize how astounding his stats really are.

In a later piece, I intend to explore this in more depth, although it won’t be the number-crunching exercise this is. I’m simply waiting, because this statistical run isn’t over for D-Wade. As last night’s spectacular performance showed, Dwyane might just be getting started.

However, his last nine games have been something to behold.

He was great in February, winning the NBA’s Eastern Conference Player of the Month award for that month, and has been fabulous all year; leading the league in scoring while staying on the leader boards of many other statistical categories.

He also won the Eastern Conference Player of the Week for his play between Monday, Mar. 2 and Sunday, Mar. 8; which is part of the run I’m discussing.

However, enough with the awards, let’s crunch the numbers.

Starting with the career-high 50-point performance he had against the Magic (albeit in a resounding loss to Orlando, 122-99), D-Wade has averaged the following over his past nine games:

37.7 PPG, 6.6 RPG, 10.7 APG, 2.8 SPG, 1.2 BPG

That is an astounding statline, especially over a nine-game period. Yet, it’s actually a little weak compared to what he’s done over the past five games (which don’t include his 50-point performance, mind you), where he’s put up the following:

38.2 PPG, 7.4 RPG, 11.2 APG, 3.4 SPG, 1.2 BPG

I won’t state it as a surety, and I haven’t done the research yet to be certain, but I’d be willing to bet those are the greatest statistical numbers over a five-game stretch for any player in NBA history other than Wilt Chamberlain, Oscar Robertson, or Michael Jordan.

In fact, I’d lay odds they're even better than any five-game stretch Oscar or Michael ever had in their careers.

However, since it would take more research than I’m willing to devote to this piece at the time, I won’t make that a statement of fact.

Nevertheless, there are two players whose stats are more easily available for this season to whom D-Wade is constantly compared.

They’re the two front-runners for the NBA’s MVP award (at least according to all the “so-called” experts at ESPN, Fox Sports, etc), Kobe Bryant and LeBron James.

I wrote a piece about this race you can read here 2008-09 NBA Regular Season MVP: And The Winner Is… in which I stated that despite my affinity and devotion to D-Wade, I would choose LeBron for the award this year.

Then again, that piece was written a week ago, and things have changed considerably since then. While I would still give the nod to LeBron, Dwyane Tyrone Wade Jr. is beginning to shame me for that choice.Since we’ve chosen Kobe and LeBron to compare D-Wade to, let’s do just that. Let’s compare D-Wade’s numbers to similar nine-game stretches of the other two players.

I won’t say definitively that these nine-game stretches I’ve chosen are the best this year for either Kobe or LeBron (again I just didn’t want to take the time to do all the research), but I have the feeling they might be.

Both stretches include each player’s fantastic games at the Garden in New York City against the vaunted Knicks.

I’m sure most remember that Kobe torched the erstwhile New York franchise for 61 points, setting a record for the most points ever scored in the new Madison Square Garden. For those who don’t, it was a singularly impressive performance by the man his fans call “Black Mamba”.

I’m also certain most remember LeBron coming in two nights later and scoring 52 points. He at first also appeared to have a triple-double to go along with that spectacular scoring performance, but the NBA subsequently took one of his rebounds away after reviewing the tape; therefore disqualifying his triple-double and stripping it from the record books.

To make this easy (and again, I’ll admit this is mostly due to my laziness), I’ve taken four games prior and four games after each of those performances to compile numbers to compare to D-Wade’s nine-game stretch.

Kobe’s numbers over his nine-game run:

32.3 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 4.0 APG, 1.0 SPG, 0.4 BPG

Those are very nice; but hardly on par with D-Wade’s performance.

LeBron’s numbers over his nine-game stretch:

30.6 PPG, 7.1 RPG, 7.6 APG, 1.1 SPG, 1.1 BPG

Much more balanced numbers than Kobe’s, and certainly impressive, but definitely falls short of Wade’s stats.

What about a five-game stretch that includes the record numbers at the Garden, you say?

In choosing the best five-game stretch for Kobe, I took the three games prior to, and one game following, his game in New York (trust me, these are the best numbers).

Kobe’s numbers over the five-game period:

38.0 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 5.0 APG, 1.2 SPG, 0.2 BPG

Again, nice numbers, very nice in fact, but still not up to snuff. The scoring is right there on par with D-Wade, yet the rest falls a bit short.

For LeBron, I included the two games prior and two games after his performance in New York.

LeBron’s numbers over that five-game stretch:

36.2 PPG, 7.0 RPG, 7.8 APG, 1.2 SPG, 1.2 BPG

Not quite the scoring of D-Wade or Kobe, but his overall numbers are much more balanced and impressive. Nonetheless, they too fall well short of D-Wade’s.

Let’s look at all of these numbers in closer proximity to really see the comparison.

Nine-Game Stretches for D-Wade, Kobe, and LeBron:

D-Wade      37.7 PPG, 6.6 RPG, 10.7 APG, 2.8 SPG, 1.2 BPG

Kobe           32.3 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 4.0 APG, 1.0 SPG, 0.4 BPG

LeBron       30.6 PPG, 7.1 RPG, 7.6 APG, 1.1 SPG, 1.1 BPG

Five-Game Stretches for D-Wade, Kobe, and LeBron:

D-Wade     38.2 PPG, 7.4 RPG, 11.2 APG, 3.4 SPG, 1.2 BPG

Kobe          38.0 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 5.0 APG, 1.2 SPG, 0.2 BPG

LeBron      36.2 PPG, 7.0 RPG, 7.8 APG, 1.2 SPG, 1.2 BPG

D-Wade’s numbers are significantly better in almost all categories.Some may be saying, yes, he has better numbers, but what are his shooting percentages to achieve those numbers compared to Kobe and LeBron’s. After all, D-Wade isn’t known as a threat from beyond the arc, is he?

While D-Wade hasn’t been known for shooting three's in the past, and in fact, rarely took any through his first five years in the league, he’s upped the ante this year.

His overall percentage from downtown for the entire year hasn’t jumped significantly, but he has been taking a lot more three's, and he’s beginning to hit on them.

The following might just change the minds of those who question D-Wade’s shooting ability.

Here are the numbers during the nine-game stretch for all three players:

D-Wade     FG – 57.5% (123-214), 3PT FG – 50.0% (20-40), FT – 84.8% (73-86)

Kobe          FG – 49.3% (108-219), 3PT FG – 36.6% (15-41), FT – 88.2% (60-68)

LeBron      FG – 48.0% (095-198), 3PT FG – 32.7% (16-49), FT – 79.3% (69-87)

And here are the numbers during the five-game stretches for all three players:

D-Wade    FG – 59.3% (070-118), 3PT FG – 58.3% (14-24), FT – 77.1% (37-48)

Kobe         FG – 53.1% (069-130), 3PT FG – 36.0% (09-25), FT – 87.8% (43-49)

LeBron     FG – 48.7% (058-119), 3 PT FG – 37.1% (13-35), FT – 90.0% (52-65)

D-Wade isn’t just putting up fantastic numbers, he’s doing so with far greater efficiency than either Kobe or LeBron did over their best stretches.

Of course, none of this is very important all by itself. For instance, it should be noted that during the nine-game stretches I’ve discussed, Kobe’s Lakers had a record of 8-1, LeBron’s Cavs went 6-3, and D-Wade’s Heat only had a record of 5-4.

Wins and losses are considered important in determining who is worthy of the MVP. I know this as much as anyone, although I feel it plays too much a part of the decision at times.

Still, considering the efficiency of these players over those nine-game stretches, and what they contributed to their teams during that time (remember, every assist aids the team as well as a bucket), it’s not hard to imagine the Heat losing eight, or even all nine of the games in question, if they were to take Wade off the team.

Could the same be said of the Lakers or Cavs? I’m Doubtful.

The Lakers and Cavs certainly would have lost some games if Kobe or LeBron weren’t on those teams.

The Heat, without Wade, would have been lost—completely and utterly.

Wade has almost single-handedly brought the Miami Heat to within a game and a half of homecourt advantage in the playoffs.

They’re likely to win a minimum of 45 games this year—a 30-game improvement over last season’s debacle. As great as LeBron and Kobe have been this year, I don’t see where they’ve contributed as much to their teams.

Also, one thing should be remembered. In both Kobe and LeBron's best seasons (2005-06, the year Wade won a title and Finals MVP), their teams were 45-37 and 50-32 respectively and were the fourth and seventh seeds in their respective conferences that year.

I doubt very many Kobe and LeBron fans weren't screaming their heads off that neither won the MVP that year. In fact, I'm confident almost all of them were ruining their throats doing it.

Now, this doesn’t yet change my view that LeBron should win the MVP or that he will. I’m pretty confident he will.

Yet, if D-Wade continues on this rampage through the record books, and the Heat were to win say…14 of their last 19 games, to end with a record of 48-34, I’d say the MVP voters would have a real hard time voting against him; as they rightfully should.

Kobe and LeBron fans would agree, if they were honest with themselves and used the same criteria they had for their own players in 2005-06.

Whatever happens, Miami Heat, Los Angeles Lakers, Cleveland Cavaliers and NBA fans all over the world will be able to enjoy the play and performances of these three magnificent athletes. Thank God for that.

Finally, this is something I intend to do more of in the future, crunching the numbers and comparing players and athletes in different sports.

While I’m a writer, I’ve worked in accounting a good part of my life and crunching numbers is something I have a knack for.

Hopefully, these types of articles will be as well-received as all the rest I’ve written. Enjoy!