NCAA Tournament: Don't Count Out the Clemson Tigers

When you looked at the brackets you probably noticed a very interesting matchup—and somewhat scary matchup—in one of those made-to-order 5-12 upsets.

Villanova is only two years removed from an Elite Eight performance, while Clemson hasn't been dancing since Rick Barnes left in 1998. Since then, Jay Wright's Wildcats have made four-straight NCAA appearances (a school record), while Oliver Purnell's Tigers have played in the NIT the last three years.

Thankfully, Villanova is a young team that has been inconsistent and can be exposed on the interior.

This game will likely determine Clemson's NCAA Tournament's fate.

Win and Clemson gains some much-needed confidence against a Vanderbilt or Siena team which only gets two days to prepare for Clemson's full-court press assault.

Seniors Cliff Hammonds, James Mays, and Sam Perry—members of coach Purnell's first recruiting class—helped resurrect an otherwise lifeless program, as these Tigers played great down the stretch to make their first NCAA appearance in a decade.

They also became the first Clemson team in 55 years to escape the conference schedule without losing back-to-back games. ACC champ North Carolina was the only other team that could make that claim this year.

Clemson is a 10-deep pressing team that had injuries all year long, but is finally getting healthy at the right time.

Hammonds' leadership, despite a fractured right wrist, is irreplaceable. He injured his hand at Maryland while making a spectacular block on a James Gist dunk and will require surgery after the season. This led to the amazing 20-point rally against the Terps and the biggest second-half comeback in school history.

For 13 games, Mays wore a protective brace that tied his last three fingers together to protect a broken bone—and looked like an oven mitt. The injury happened Jan. 6 during a pass in warmups against UNC.

He was 0-for-10 from the field against Florida State in the last game he wore the large brace, helping cause the nine-point defeat. Since he ripped the cast off against Maryland, Mays has scored in double figures in the final four regular-season games, totaling 56 points.

Each year, the Tigers have improved under Purnell, who has an 0-3 record in NCAA Tournament games but has never coached the level of talent he has now. The only remaining issues are a few late-game collapses against elite teams and struggles at the free-throw line.

The only way teams have been successful against Clemson's full-court pressure is by throwing over the top of the 6'9", Mays who wreaks havoc at the top of the press. Whether Nova and the Vandy/Siena guards can do that remains to be seen.

Villanova's fate lies almost solely on the shoulders of sensational sophomore guard Scottie Reynolds. The best player on the team, he has struggled at times this year while switching guard duties, but does his best work with the ball in his hands.

Corey Stokes (9.1 points, 33 percent from beyond the arc) has come on as a solid outside shooter to complement Reynolds. Antonio Pena and Dante Cunningham (10.4 points, 6.5 rebounds) are decent on the interior.

But if Reynolds gets taken out of the game, Villanova really struggles. Corey Fisher and Malcolm Grant have been unreliable, each prone to turning the ball over.

Since coming to Villanova, Jay Wright's teams have played great defense. He relies on his defense to make his offense tick, but this team has struggled on that end.

This season, they really never played Nova-style defense, especially on the perimiter—hence Georgtown's 18 three's in a Big East tournament blowout. Opposing teams shot 37 percent from downtown, hitting more than seven treys per game.

Bottom line: I like Clemson to squeak past Nova due to nerves and the press...before carrying their confidence past Vandy into the Sweet 16, where mighty Kansas likely awaits.

Clemson has the talent to make the Final Four, but also the inexperience and inconsistency to lose to a streaky Villanova squad.

Clemson has shown it can beat anybody this year, by beating Duke and playing Carolina to the wire three times. They have also layed eggs against Florida State, Georgia Tech, and Charlotte.

The key could be free throws—and that, as all Tiger fans know, has always a chink in the armor.

But maybe now is the time for these Tigers to prove the critics wrong. You can bet they're chomping at the bit.