Why No. 1-Seeded Memphis Won't Win The NCAA Tournament

Some of you may have read an earlier article written in which I called Memphis the worst No. 1 Seed in NCAA History.  Thanks to those who did.

Some critics said my analysis wasn't up to snuff.  Okay, I accept that criticism—I'm a humble guy.

This follow-up is aimed at those scholars, skeptics, and meathead Memphis fans who wanted some further explanation. Here it goes...

 

1. Strength of Schedule

Memphis' nonconference Strength of Schedule (SOS) is seriously impressive. But their in-conference SOS ranks 101st in the NCAA.

Though they've been tested out of conference, the Tigers essentially play nobody during the meat of their schedule.  It's not like C-USA was a multiple-bid league this year.

Memphis can't expect to go long stretches of  the season without getting tested and then turn it on for six games.

 

2. Coaching

John Calipari has quite a resume.

His .750 career winning percentage is very impressive.  His 18-9 record in NCAA Tournament games is better than that of most coaches. Calipari has won eight conference tournaments and nine regular-season championships.

But he's never won the big one—not in college, not in the pros. Never.

He's a great coach when he wants to be, but history says that when it has mattered, he just hasn't been able to do it.

 

3. The Half-Court Game

In the course of an NCAA Tournament, the champion is almost invariably tested in at least one half-court, grind-it-out foul-fest.

This hurts Memphis in two ways.

First Memphis is very athletic, meaning that they will likely have better athletes on the floor than the other team.  The other team, on the other hand, will likely have better basketball players.

Memphis has always had outstanding athletes under Calipari, with nothing to show for it.  In this case skill will win out over athleticism.

 

4. Free-Throw Shooting

Free-throw shooting is an absolute must if the Tigers want to win it all.  Of the 65 tournament teams, only Winthrop has a lower FT percentage.

Yes, the Tigers shot over 70 percent in the C-USA tournament.  They also were never challenged—and had an average scoring margin of +20.3 points per game.

Put to the test in real pressure situations, Memphis may well prove to be a team that gives away points at the charity stripe.

 

So from top to bottom, the 33-1 Tigers are dangerously flawed. In the event of a nail-biter, fans should have their Pepto-Bismol nearby—because it won't be pretty.

I really hope Gus Johnson is calling that game.