Making a Case for the Aztecs: Why SDSU Should Be in the NCAA Tournament

Last night's slugfest win at home versus UNLV gave the San Diego State Men's Basketball team some renewed hope for an NCAA Tournament bid. It gave them a second win versus UNLV, a team many believe is going to make the tournament.

The win also improved "State's" regular season record to 21-8 (11-5 in the MWC).

Before I tell you all the reasons for why they should get in, here are some of the big reasons State could be left with just an NIT berth, if they don't win the MWC Tournament.

Reasons the Aztecs Might Need To Settle for the NIT

1. No "Big Wins"

Originally, when the Aztecs went to Vegas and defeated the Runnin' Rebels on their home floor, it looked like a huge victory. With UNLV's overall record, 21-9, and struggles against teams such as Air Force and Wyoming in the conference, that win became less impressive.

1b. Tough Losses

The Aztecs matched up with three pretty good teams in non-conference action this season, but came up on the short end all three times.

The November 18 matchup versus Arizona State, ranked No. 15 at the time, was a great chance for the Aztecs to get a quality non-conference win. Everything was looking good until about five minutes to go, when ASU got hot from behind the three-point line and the Aztecs couldn't make a shot.

The December 10 game at Arizona was similar in the sense that the Aztecs had a chance, and then couldn't make a shot at the end.

The St. Mary's game just three days later in the John R. Wooden Classic was probably the biggest heart breaker; "State" came back from 15 down only to have about eight offensive rebounds and put-backs rejected by the rim as the buzzer sounded.

All three games were against quality teams that are going to be given strong consideration for the Tournament themselves. I would say at least two of them will make it.

Add in a few tough conference losses—at home vs. BYU (the only conference home loss) and at Uta—and overall, the Aztecs record could be much better, if only they could finish a game.

2. Lack of Offense

Whether the other team plays zone or man-to-man, the Aztecs don't seem to have the answer. Occasionally, when they get hot from three-point distance—like they did last night—they have a chance. Otherwise, it is too much one-on-one and too many turnovers (see 20 turnovers in versus UNLV last night).

3. The Conference They Play In

Sure, the SEC is down this year, which certainly helps the Mountain West. And the Big East is so competitive that many of its teams have poor records. Nonetheless, the Selection Committee may decide they'd rather have a battle-tested team from the Big East than the Mountain West, because traditionally, those teams are stronger and more apt to play in the Tournament. Never mind the fact that this is the most competitive season the Mountain West Conference has ever had.

Reasons for the Aztecs to Make the Tournament

1. Overall Record

Supposedly, the Selection Committee looks at the last 12 games a team plays to determine how well they are playing at the end of the season. If true, SDSU's current mark in that time frame is 8-4. Of course, this will change based on how well they perform in the Confernce Tournament. Their overall record, 21-8, is typically good enough to get in the tournament, at least for teams from "power conferences."

Take into account the fact they've only lost two home games all season, both to teams that will be playing in the NCAA Tournament. Finally, they won The Great Alaska Shootout. Just thought I'd throw that one out there for the heck of it.

2. The Conference They Play In

So I said this was a reason they may not make it in. I stand by that, but I also stand by this fact: The Mountain West has been more competitive than almost every other conference in the country this season. Consider that UNLV, a team that has quality wins versus Louisville and Arizona, is the fifth seed in the Conference Tournament.

Five teams in the conference have 21 or more wins. A sixth team, Wyoming, is 18-12 and a very dangerous team potentially in the conference tournament, led by the top scorer in the conference, Brandon Ewing (18.6 PPG). At worst, they're looking like a good team for the NIT.

Right now, the conference looks like it's guaranteed three teams, with the possibility of four or five actually making the tournament.

3. Getting Defensive

San Diego State leads the conference and is somewhere between 10th and 15th nationally in scoring defense, at just under 60 points given up per game (actual average is 59.8). They also lead the conference in steals at 8.17 steals per game.

They also lead the conference in offensive rebounds per game, which I know is an offensive category, but proves their toughness and quickness.

All this is meant to prove that the Aztecs may have what it takes to be successful in the NCAA Tournament, if they are given that opportunity.

They also have a group of five seniors, led by likely All-Conference Forward Kyle Spain, averaging 14.5 points and a little over five rebounds per game, with tons of experience who should be able to help steer the ship to success in March.

Add to that, Head Coach Steve Fisher has won an NCAA Championship at Michigan.

Right now, I believe beating UNLV on their home court on Thursday would go a long way toward securing a spot in the tournament. I also feel this would effectively knock the Runnin' Rebels out of tournament consideration. We'll see, it should be very interesting.

Let the conference tournaments begin!