Stock Up, Stock Down for Key Houston Texans After Week 3

Three games in and the Texans’ slate has a big doughnut on the loss side. The only undefeated team in the AFC, they top many power rankings for the first time in their existence. 

If the roster were a portfolio of assets, how would you evaluate them at this stage of the season? Think of them as stocks: which are going up or down? 

There will also be some securities that will always be part of the long-term plan for your future prosperity. They represent the greatest portion of your investments, and you would not part with them under any circumstances. 

Then there are others that have obvious potential for growth, cost pennies to acquire, require a prospectus before making a decision, or you would sell if you can get the right price. This amounts to five categories for classification purposes. 

These transactions will not obviously occur, and are purely speculative.

Fortunately people cannot be bought and sold like stock certificates. But players are measured and evaluated according to a set of standards just like anything with a market value. This is just one view of how that might be done.

Blue Chips

If you are a diversified investor, your collection contains an assortment of blue chip stocks. The ones that have the highest per share value, and form the basis of your wealth.

Translated to NFL terms, these would be your highest salary cap hits and the appropriate action to take:  

Player	Cap Figure
Matt Schaub	11,700,000	Buy
Johnathan Joseph	9,750,000	Buy
Antonio Smith	9,300,000	Hold
Arian Foster	8,000,000	Hold
Owen Daniels	5,250,000	Buy
Andre Johnson	5,051,249	Buy
Danieal Manning	5,000,000	Hold
Chris Myers	4,500,000	Hold

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Matt Schaub signed a 4-year extension after Week 1 of the season. After the win over the Broncos, he and his left ear are as big a hit as the one he took from Joe Mays. 

Johnathan Joseph continues to blanket receivers like the paparazzi cover a Kardashian wedding. With Darelle Revis out for the year, the Texans might have the best shutdown corner in the business. 

Antonio Smith looks expensive when compared to his fellow DE J.J. Watt. His steady play makes much of what Mega-Watt accomplishes possible in the first place. 

Arian Foster is behind the pace he set in previous years, but the team is winning and the season still young. A breakout game is somewhere in his near-future. 

Owen Daniels has the role many of today’s tight ends enjoy, sort of a receiver 2A/2B. To guard against the bomb, the secondary leaves a midrange opening on many plays. With above average speed and hands for his position, he is often the second read if the wideout is covered. 

Andre Johnson is both the most underrated and underappreciated offensive performer of the last decade. The all-time leader in average receptions and yards per game going into 2012 was none other than No. 80. His 54 total touchdowns are all that stands between him and the recognition he deserves. The 60-yard strike in the Denver game shows he has lost nothing at 31.  

Danieal Manning has some great games scattered among many good ones. He makes the occasional big play and rarely the fatal mistake. He plays center field so Glover Quin can handle the under routes and blitz the QB when called upon. His cap figure is out of the top 10 for safeties, which means his value is close to his compensation. 

Chris Myers is the quarterback of the offensive line. If he makes the wrong call, one of the backs will pay the price. Uncertain if he is to blame for Derek Newton blocking in rather than out on the sack that split Schaub’s ear. 

Growth Stocks

Player	Cap Figure
Brian Cushing	2,653,000	Buy
J.J. Watt	2,553,977	Buy
Duane Brown	2,181,500	Buy
Glover Quin	1,430,562	Buy
Ben Tate	759,250	Hold
Tim Jamison	750,000	Buy
Earl Mitchell	737,125	Buy
James Casey	661,250	Hold

Brian Cushing had been the emotional leader of the defense until the emergence of J.J. Watt. That has not diminished his importance or his mastery of the second defensive level. It just means he can concentrate on being a linebacker and not a jack-of-all-trades, especially when it comes to the interior pass rush.

J.J. Watt is the biggest bargain in the NFL. He is the embodiment of Lawrence Taylor recast as a down lineman. Could Watt be on the kind of run to be the first defensive MVP since Taylor in 1986? Second in the league in sacks along with the most QB pressures and five tipped passes, he is already on his way.

Duane Brown is a temporary member of this cast only until his 7-year deal kicks in next season. He already supplies blue chip execution, protecting Schaub’s blind side as if his grandma was playing QB.

Glover Quin has the most overall responsibilities of any player on his side of the ball. These include covering the tight end, helping out the cornerbacks when the offense goes to three-plus receivers, giving run support and trying to shoot the gap into the backfield. The passer rating against him is 56.3, or so says Pro Football Focus. All in a days work. 

Ben Tate has not matched the consistency of his first full season as a backup RB. The offensive line is part of the problem as both he and Foster are behind the curve going into Week 4. Still plenty of time left to pick up the pace and get a nice raise as a restricted free agent. 

Tim Jamison has also signed a new deal, but not one in blue chip territory. Content to spell the other defensive ends, or beef up the rush on passing downs, he brings depth to what is now the premier position on the defense. 

Earl Mitchell splits the snaps at nose tackle with Shaun Cody in what is a part-time position. Houston spends so much time in five and six DB formations the NT is usually pulled to bring in more coverage. Mitchell ties up enough blockers to let Smith and Watt harass the opposing passer. 

James Casey has shown himself to be a fullback in both mentality and blocking ability. Some passes have come his way, but none of his receptions have had much impact. But his job is to lead the way for the running backs and he is getting better at it each game.

Penny Stocks

Player	Cap Figure
Quintin Demps	700,000	Hold
Garrett Graham	660,025	Buy
Ben Jones	510,362	Buy
Keshawn Martin	493,140	Buy
Lestar Jean	391,667	Buy

When Demps was kept on and Troy Nolan released, the fans thought Wade Phillips had lost it. Nolan had been the sort of backup safety that made things happen. Now he is sitting on the bench in Miami and Quintin is killing it on special teams and dime alignments. 

Graham has only caught three passes, but for an average of 18 yards each.  Every one has seemed like a big catch, such as the 27-yarder for a first-and-goal resulted in an Arian Foster TD. The game plan for the rest of the season should include more two TE sets to get Graham more involved. 

Jones was drafted as the successor to Chris Myers, and is destined for that task one day. The rotation at right guard with Antoine Caldwell has familiarized him the intricacies of zone blocking and kept Caldwell off his usual spot on the injury report. 

Too many passes slipped through the hands of Martin while he was adapting to life in the NFL. But Kubiak stuck with him and it paid off in Denver with a 21-yard end-around and two catches for 20 yards. He is thought to be the speedy wideout that could keep the double coverage off Andre Johnson.  

The gorgeous leaping 46-yard grab by Lestar Jean that led to the Texans final touchdown in the Broncos game could be his last for some time. His torn cartilage will need arthroscopic surgery and an unknown recovery period. The combination of size and speed he brings is intriguing enough to keep him around until his return to health.

Prospectus Needed

Player	Cap Figure
Shaun Cody	3,000,000	Sell
Kevin Walter	3,000,000	Hold
Kareem Jackson	1,945,000	Sell
Connor Barwin	917,500	Sell
Antoine Caldwell	816,062	Sell

None of the above has firmly established their value. It will take more information, that is the rest of the season, for them to justify their value. 

NT Cody and WR Walter are each on the books for a cool $3 million. The nose tackle is in a contract year and averaging less than 20 snaps a game. He will have to move on to get close to his current paycheck or turn into Vince Wilfork overnight. 

Walter is certainly productive, with 8 receptions for 154 yards and a TD. But will he be worth it if the young receivers start to fulfill their promise? Now that Jean is out for an unspecified length of time, Walter’s status has solidified somewhat. He already took a pay cut before this season. 

Could Walter be counted on to take another for some offensive line depth or to re-sign Barwin and Caldwell? Wait, they have to prove they are worthy of being re-signed. Barwin has not recorded a sack through three games, and Caldwell is splitting time with Ben Jones. All of a sudden, Walter looks like he has the upper hand. Information has been provided, thank you. 

Every team has a Kareem Jackson, largely because there are not enough superstar cover guys to go around. We saw Tracy Porter get roasted and toasted for two Texans scores on Sunday. Almost everyone says he is improving, but then a pass interference call against him in the end zone gives the Broncos a 1st-and-goal at the one. A bad call, but another strike Jackson must bear. 

Bottom line, Walter is only one who benefits from closer inspection. The rest comprise the few on this new powerhouse who need to step up and meet the standard presented by the rest of their teammates.  

Sell Them If You Can

Player	Cap Figure
Wade Smith	2,750,000	Sell
Brice McCain	1,333,437	Sell
T.J. Yates	511,250	Sell
Derek Newton	480,064	Sell

Yes, they all have a price tag on them, but each is for sale for a different reason. 

Wade Smith is on the block simply because, to some eyes, he grades out worse than the lowly Derek Newton. And he has done so since the Miami game. Last year, he was the least respected member of the Texans offensive line. But that was because everyone else was so good. 

Now, when compared to the retooled right side, Smith still comes across as the weak link. If there only were a taker, it would be adios my friend. 

McCain is far from the worst in his platoon, but it is such a depressing turn of events from 2011. He may have been the best nickel back in the AFC during that season. 

A difficult duty, one that forces you to follow the slot receiver through some dangerous traffic.  Unlike Wade Smith, Brice still has some value and could be worth a reserve offensive lineman.  

The same hold true for T.J. Yates. In fact, he may have the most value of any movable piece on the team. 

He will likely get very little playing time this year. John Beck thoroughly outplayed Yates in the preseason. The memory of his play down the stretch and into last year's playoffs is fresh enough to interest a team like Denver, let’s say. Who really believes Brock Osweiler is a legitimate backup to a possibly fragile Peyton Manning? 

Derek Newton was going to be a work in progress. This was understood going in. Our worst fears were realized when he became a turnstile to whomever opposed him. 

As stated before, maybe Chris Myers made the wrong call for the line when Joe Mays had a clean shot at Matt Schaub. That does not account for the multiple holding calls, or being replaced late when the game was on the line. If his confidence is not shattered by now, anything close to his Denver effort will finish the job.