Fantasy Baseball: Starting Pitcher Rankings

I find pitching in fantasy baseball to be a necessary evil. 

Your roster needs pitching, so you have to draft it. In fact, most leagues count it as half the weight of either a week or total points. It's a shame, really, because it's one of the most inconsistent positions from year to year. 

The last month or so, I've written several times on pitching. My real opinions on the subject can be found in this link. 

Many writers call pitching a crapshoot, and the reasons are valid. Injuries are just par for the course when it comes to guys that put this kind of pressure on their arm more than 150 times every five days (counting warmup pitches and the like). Shoulders just aren't meant to take that kind of beating. 

Putting rankings together for this position, I came to several conclusions. First, I wouldn't draft the top-five on this list unless I was getting superior value. Brandon Webb had better fall to round six for me to start thinking about taking him.

Second, you can find category help deeper in the draft. Wins, strikeouts, and even a decent WHIP can be found in the middle and late rounds. 

Spring training has already showed us how fragile pitchers can be. Johan Santana has been doing the MRI dance (sort of like the macarena, but less annoying) for two weeks. Justin Duchscherer could open the season on the DL, and Brad Penny is already behind schedule. 

Nor do we know how CC Sabathia's arm will react to the number of innings thrown last year. Jon Lester saw a tremendous increase in his workload from 2007 to 2008 as well. There are simply a myriad of unknowns residing just 60 feet from home plate. 

With my personal feelings out of the way, here's how we rank the starters.

1. Tim Lincecum
2. Johan Santana
3. Brandon Webb
4. Cole Hamels
5. Roy Halladay
6. CC Sabathia
7. Jake Peavy
8. Dan Haren
9. Chad Billingsley
10. James Shields
11. John Lackey
12. Felix Hernandez
13. Cliff Lee
14. Francisco Liriano
15. Josh Beckett
16. Zack Greinke
17. Daisuke Matsuzaka
18. Ervin Santana
19. Roy Oswalt
20. Scott Baker
21. Yovani Gallardo
22. Adam Wainwright
23. Scott Kazmir
24. Edinson Volquez
25. Javier Vazquez
26. Matt Cain
27. Jon Lester
28. Ryan Dempster
29. Matt Garza
30. A.J. Burnett

Notes

• The top six or seven pitchers on this list are likely gone before the end of round five in most drafts. If any of them slip past that, you can consider that fantastic value. Otherwise, be prepared to spend a high pick to get some of the better pitchers on the board.
• Expecting Cliff Lee to duplicate his 2008 season is unrealistic. I believe he's closer to the 2008 version than the 2007 version, but that doesn't mean he's going to be the most reliable starter. Seriously, temper expectations and don't reach for last year's flavor too early.
• Francisco Liriano is now two years removed from surgery, and he's becoming a more complete pitcher according to early spring reports. Liriano has the talent, and should make the move to being a top-tier pitcher this season.
• I had Johan Santana at number one on this list before all the issues started cropping up with his elbow. Again, this all goes to risk valuation. This is all happening before opening day. He's refused an MRI. Could it be nothing? Of course. The possibility is there, though, that this could be a season-long issue. Be wary.
• John Lackey missed the early part of the season with an injury last year, but should be 100 percent as we start 2009. Lackey is buried on some websites because of last season's performance and more limited action. Dig for him and you'll find some solid value in your draft.
• I'm uncertain as to how Sabathia's arm will hold up after the abuse it took in Milwaukee. He's young, and seems to be able to handle the workload, but the questions on durability, the pressure of New York, and the spotlight itself make you wonder how he'll hold up. It's the only reason to keep him out of the top five of this list.
• The Diamondbacks could have two potential Cy Young candidates in Webb and Haren. I like Webb more from an overall perspective, but you'll get similar production and better value by waiting to grab Haren a bit later. Arizona will need the pitching to carry them.
• Josh Beckett is reporting no signs of the injury he suffered last season. His spring outings have been solid, and his pop on the fastball has returned. Expect a much better year from the Boston pitcher.
• A.J. Burnett has always been a solid strikeout pitcher. In New York, he'll be paired with a better offense than he had in Toronto, even if the defense isn't a huge upgrade. Burnett was solid in the second half of the season, putting up top-tier numbers after the break. His move to New York should only help his value.
• Adam Wainwright is another pitcher that missed time with an injury last season. Wainwright doesn't have dominant stuff, but he knows how to pitch, and will provide a steady WHIP and ERA for owners willing to deal with a lack of strikeouts.
• Matsuzaka is one of the most enjoyably frustrating pitchers in baseball. He might kill your WHIP with his walks, but he knows how to pitch. Expect him to continue his impressive development with Boston and come close to 20 wins again this year.
• If you can get the Roy Oswalt of the second half of 2008, then he should be higher on this list. Oswalt could struggle finding wins because of a poor Houston team, but should pitch well enough to make him worth drafting. He'll be solid, if unspectacular.
• Another pitcher of note for late in the draft is Chris Carpenter. He's getting plenty of buzz in St. Louis each time he takes to the mound. Look to steal him late, and then anything he provides is a bonus.