Boilermaker Breakdown (Northwestern - Mar. 4)

Northwestern 64, Purdue 61

The last five games for the Boilermakers have been some of the most inconsistent performances that one could imagine.

They thumped league-leader Michigan State by 18, had an unspectacular win over last-place Indiana, played no defense in a loss to Michigan, destroyed Ohio State with an offensive outburst, and then could not score in losing to Northwestern.

The Boilers lack consistency, which is not a good thing for a team hoping for a deep tournament run.

Purdue has been outplayed by Northwestern twice and is lucky to be 1-1 against the Wildcats. You may recall that the Boilers barely escaped from Evanston, after being down by 14 at one point.

Purdue went into halftime with a comfortable 35-28 lead and built it to 44-34 early in the second half. However, Northwestern switched out of its 1-3-1 zone into a matchup zone/man defense and held the Boilers without a field goal for over nine minutes.

The Purdue players seemed like they were all waiting for someone else to step up and make a shot to end the drought but no one did.

It was soon a 56-47 Northwestern lead with about five minutes left, and the Boilers ran out of time in their comeback effort.

I don’t know if the Boilers got tired trying to play against Northwestern’s defense, lost focus now that their goal (winning the Big Ten) is unattainable, or just got outplayed.

But one thing is certain. Purdue was out-coached.

Bill Carmody, Northwestern’s head coach, had a great scheme and his players executed it to perfection.

They would use screens to get a big man on 5’9” point guard Lewis Jackson and then go inside. They would pull the Big Ten’s best shot blocker, JaJuan Johnson, to the perimeter, then score a backdoor lay-up.

They definitely used Purdue’s aggressiveness in trying to block shots to get easy put-backs or dump-off layups. This has been a problem in other games as players such as Tom Pritchard of Indiana and B.J. Mullens of Ohio State scored uncontested layups and dunks because three Boilers were trying to block the same shot.

Painter will at least have much to work on and hopefully can refocus, before the game at Michigan State and the tournaments.

What the Boilers did well

Ball Security

This was an issue in the first game against the 'Cats, as Purdue couldn’t seem to pass or catch against the zone. However, the Boilers only committed seven turnovers. Usually that is good enough to get a win, but Purdue was just so bad in other areas.

Where the Boilers struggled

Free-Throw Shooting

This also keeps popping up in the Breakdown. In about the last minute of the game, Chris Kramer missed two free throws, and Robbie Hummel missed the front end of a one-and-one. Three points were the difference in the game, but Purdue continued to be un-clutch from the line.

Rebounding

Purdue dominated the boards at Northwestern but were out-rebounded by the less athletic Wildcats.

Every bounce seemed to go Northwestern’s way and Purdue just wasn’t tenacious enough. Northwestern tallied 10 offensive rebounds, including two in the final minutes that hope in running down the clock.

General Gameplay

I have already mentioned much of this at the beginning, but Purdue was just plain out-played, out-hustled, out-focused, out-coached, out-executed, and out-smarted. Northwestern was the better team in this game.

Player of the Game

Keaton Grant

A small bright spot for the Boilers is that Keaton is regaining his shooting form from last season.

He made 4-of-8 shots, including three three-pointers, for a total of 14 points. He also made all three of his free throws, had three rebounds, an assist, and three blocks with only one turnover.

Grant played 30 total minutes off the bench, and with his shooting improving, he is going to be tough to keep off of the court.

Questions for the Future

Which team is going to show up?

This same question was in the last Breakdown, and apparently, it was a good one. Purdue looks like a totally different team from game to game, and I have no idea which one will be playing at Michigan State.

Painter has to get this team playing well in consecutive games, if he wants to do anything in the tournaments.

How will the Boilers’ energy level be now that the Big Ten is out of reach?

Again, this is another carryover question. Purdue had a lapse there in the second half, and the game at Michigan State is really meaningless other than for seeding purposes.

Will they play with fire or are they going to care at all?

Where They Stand

Let’s first discuss seeding for the Big Ten tournament. There are multiple scenarios that could take place depending on the Illinois-Penn State game tonight and the Purdue-Michigan State game Sunday. The Penn State-Iowa game Saturday could also have an impact.

I’ll just break down what seed Purdue will get in each case below:

Purdue and Illinois win – Purdue will be tied with Illinois for second; but, they beat Purdue twice, so Purdue would get the No. 3 seed.

Purdue wins and Penn State beats Illinois – Purdue would be alone in second place for the No. 2 seed.

Purdue loses and Penn State wins twice – This would cause a three-way tie for second; the overall records of each team would then have to be reviewed. Purdue would have the worst record at 1-3, so they would get the No. 4 seed.

Purdue loses and Penn State only beats Illinois – This would again be a tie for second with Purdue and Illinois, so Purdue would be the No. 3 seed.

Purdue loses and Illinois wins – This would put Purdue alone in third for the No. 3 seed.

So basically, an Illinois win tonight guarantees Purdue the No. 3 seed and a Penn State win leaves a lot up in the air.

As far as NCAA seeding goes, the Boilers seriously hurt themselves with a home loss to Northwestern.

Last season, Purdue was 24-8, 15-3 heading into the NCAA tournament and got a No. 6 seed. Right now, they have two fewer overall wins and six Big Ten losses. A No. 6 seed would probably be nice right now based on their record from last season.

They have played a tougher schedule than last year, but they will need to beat MSU and/or go far in the Big Ten tourney to move up.

Up Next and Prediction

I have no idea what to predict here. If Illinois wins tonight, Purdue has nothing to play for, except NCAA seeding. MSU is in the same spot though.

Purdue killed them at home, and I think that they will play well on the road. However, I don’t see Purdue pulling it out against an MSU team—playing well and holding Senior Night.

Michigan State 66, Purdue 60