NFL Week 2 Picks: Predicting Winners After Upset-Heavy Opening Week

The first week of the NFL season featured a rash of top teams in the power rankings go down to purportedly inferior opponents.

The Packers, Saints and Giants headlined that group that lost over the opening week.

Green Bay falling to the 49ers—even at hallowed Lambeau Field—was understandable. On the other hand, rookie quarterback RGIII and the Redskins crushing a highly motivated New Orleans squad at home was inexplicable. And the Cowboys running roughshod over the defending-champion Giants defense went totally contrary to pre-game projections.

Assembling one’s Week 2 picks became entirely more difficult due to these upsets. Do we trust these teams enough to pick them in the second week?

Even teams like the Chiefs, Seahawks and Steelers present challenges when predicting this week’s games. All three looked overrated in one way or another.

With that in mind, let’s make the picks for each game in Week 2 and offer a brief preview before the prediction.

@Green Bay (-6) vs. Chicago

This will prove to be the most exciting matchup of the week.

The Bears offense was firing on all cylinders in their win over the Colts. Along with scoring 41 points, the defense picked off Andrew Luck three times.

Green Bay, meanwhile, ran into a brick wall—otherwise known as the 49ers defense. That unit contained Aaron Rodgers, while its offensive compatriots put up 30 against a still-suspect Packers D.

Pick: Packers

This was a very difficult pick.

The Bears are undeniably a better overall team right now. However, the Pack will in no way lose two straight at Lambeau. The wide receivers will find a way to break out against the Bears secondary.

They will not cover the spread, as Rodgers will throw a late TD to give Green Bay a four-point victory.

@Buffalo (-3) vs. Kansas City

Where does one even begin with these two untrustworthy, overrated squads?

The no-offensive-touchdown-in-the-preseason Jets absolutely went to work against a Bills defense projected for greatness.

Sanchez throwing three touchdowns and the offense scoring 48 points in all was not supposed to happen—at least in the eyes of everyone but the Jets. A Bills D that is far better on paper facilitated this development.

For the Chiefs, after a competitive back-and-forth first half, Romeo Crennel’s defense imploded to the extent of 20 second-half points surrendered to the Falcons. Matt Cassel and the Chiefs offense failed to score until five seconds remaining in the game.

Pick: Bills

This comes down to the home team winning a battle between two underachieving clubs. Ryan Fitzpatrick will build off his three second-half touchdown passes last week, despite the injuries to David Nelson and Fred Jackson.

The Bills will cover.

@Cincinnati (-7) vs. Cleveland

Cincinnati ran into the class of the AFC North in the form of the Baltimore Ravens.

The Bengals defense—injuries to the secondary or not—looked awful. Forty-four points and 430 yards-allowed speak for themselves.

Andy Dalton also looked every bit of a sophomore slump at the quarterback position. Then again, it is the Ravens D we’re talking about.

The supposed lowly Browns actually had some positives to take away from the matchup against the Eagles.

Looking past quarterback Brandon Weeden’s futility, the defense held a high-powered Philadelphia offense to just 10 points until the final two minutes. It picked off Michael Vick four times, forced a fumble and was a near-interception away from pulling off a massive upset.

Pick: Bengals

Cleveland made strides, but they are still far from being a viable contender. Dalton’s Bengals are much better that what they showed last week as well.

No covering the spread though, based off a stout Browns passing defense and still evolving Cincinnati offense.

Minnesota vs. @Indianapolis (+1.5)

Two rebuilding programs, two franchise QBs fighting for the future—but who’ll win in the present?

Christian Ponder’s Vikings won on the legs of Adrian Peterson and kicker Blair Walsh.

Both accounted for all 26 points. Ponder was highly efficient (20-for-27) and threw for a solid average (10 yards per completion). His defense allowed 23 points to an offensively challenged Jaguars team.

The Colts, under rookie-sensation Andrew Luck, did not fair as well last Sunday.

This loss had more to do with Jay Cutler, Brandon Marshall and the Bears run game exploiting the Indy D. Luck, however, threw three picks, produced a rating of 52.9, and his sole TD pass occurred in mop-up time. He did throw for over 300 yards.

Pick: Colts

Luck is simply too NFL-ready and looked too good in the preseason for consecutive bad days at the office. He’ll rally around his home crowd and put forth a superior performance than his counterpart in Minnesota.

Plus, the Vikings defense is nowhere near the caliber of the Bears unit.

Oakland vs. @Miami (+2.5)

The season openers were purely regrettable for these teams.

Oakland’s punt unit—rather, the backup long snapper Travis Goethel—was a veritable mess in the Monday night game against the Chargers. The offense sputtered throughout, and Carson Palmer targeted running back Darren McFadden 18 times in the passing game.

A notable bright spot was the Raiders D holding San Diego to one offensive touchdown and five field goals.

The Dolphins and Texans game was a thorough mismatch across the board.

Arian Foster and Andre Johnson had their way at all levels of Miami’s defense. The offensive unit mustered just three points, and rookie Ryan Tannehill looked sufficiently lost against a sophisticated Houston defense.

Pick: Raiders

Trusting the Raiders to travel clear across the country and win a game isn’t a viable betting prospect. That said, they have more playmakers than a Dolphins team devoid of receivers at Tannehill’s disposal.

Oakland wins on a late Sebastian Janikowski field goal and covers the spread.

@New England (-13.5) vs. Arizona

Bill Belichick’s Patriots flashed some rare proficiency in the run game against the Titans.

Stevan Ridley rushed for 125 yards and a touchdown on 21 carries. Tom Brady was his usual efficient self with two TD passes, while the defense was uncharacteristically effective in containing Jake Locker and holding Chris Johnson to a total of four yards rushing.

Kevin Kolb lived up to expectations temporarily by leading a fourth-quarter comeback against the Seahawks. Arizona had no semblance of a run game as usual, but they managed a win.

The defense reduced QB Russell Wilson to his rookie status (minus the dropped TD pass). It regulated "Beast Mode" Marshawn Lynch for the most part as well.

Pick: Patriots

This game won’t be close.

The Cardinals defense is better than what some people give it credit for, but the Patriots will win by 17 as a West Coast team travels to the East. Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez look to have big games.

Only mercy on the part of Brady and Belichick will prevent the Pats from covering the 13.5-point spread.

@New York Giants (-7.5) vs. Tampa Bay

The Cowboys embarrassed the Giants’ vaunted defensive unit on opening night.

Tony Romo threw three touchdowns, and DeMarco Murray rushed for over 130 as the team racked up 433 total yards. The Giants' lack of depth severely hurt them in this matchup.

On offense, Victor Cruz’s multiple dropped passes hurt Eli Manning and the passing game. The group as a whole was out of sync for sustained periods as well.

Tampa Bay reverted back to 2010 form in its win over Cam Newton and the Panthers. Josh Freeman threw a touchdown pass, and rookie Doug Martin went for 95 on the ground.

The Bucs D picked off Newton twice and held the Panthers to 10 yards rushing on 13 carries.

Pick: Giants

Tom Coughlin will have his guys fully motivated in Week 2 (as if they shouldn’t have been against Dallas). The Giants are not as strong as their preseason ratings would suggest, but they are good enough to beat a road-weary Josh Freeman by a TD.

They’ll fall short of covering the spread.

@Philadelphia (-2.5) vs. Baltimore

How Philadelphia is favored in this one is beyond logic.

The Eagles offense flopped completely against the Browns’ good-but-not-dominant defense. Vick threw four interceptions and nearly a fifth that would have lost his team the game. Jeremy Maclin and LeSean McCoy provided the firepower on offense.

The defense, meanwhile, was a ferocious bunch. It picked off Weeden four times, sacked him twice and was otherwise flying from sideline to sideline.

On the opposite end of the spectrum sits the Ravens. They were successful in all phases but rushing defense.

Joe Flacco played up to the lofty qualifications of himself, and Ray Rice ran it in twice. The defense stifled Dalton all night long, capping it off by a record-setting interception return for a touchdown by Ed Reed.

Pick: Ravens

Baltimore will pull off the “upset” on the strength of Ray Rice and a suddenly explosive offense. If the Eagles looked that bad against the Browns, how will they fair against a much superior Ravens team?

Vick could be in for a painful evening.

New Orleans vs. @Carolina (+2.5)

What occurred in New Orleans last week was something few could have possibly predicted.

No. 2 overall pick RGIII went into arguably the most daunting road stadium and came out with a dominant win. He outdueled Drew Brees to the tune of 320 yards, two touchdowns and a rating of 139.9. Brees himself threw for 300-plus and two scores, but he accrued most of those stats when the game was already out of reach.

The woes on offense were a byproduct of the undisciplined, out-of-control play on defense. Players communicated poorly and missed their assignments, which lead to 40 points for the Redskins. Brees and Co. constantly had to play catchup.

It’s hard to fathom the Saints losing in such a way with all of the motivating off-the-field factors in play. Perhaps head coach Sean Payton really is that vital to this team.

Carolina also suffered a rather unusual defeat in Week 1.

The team compiled an unheard-of 0.8-yard average on the ground. The lack of a run game fostered a predictable attack on offense that helped lead to two Newton interceptions on consecutive drives late in the third quarter.

The defense was impressive in limiting an opponent to 16 points on the road. A void in offensive balance, though, killed the Panthers in this one.

Pick: Saints

This game really amounts to a toss up. It required a Brees last-second touchdown to beat the Panthers in Carolina last season. The Saints have since lost a step, while the Panthers are an improved team overall.

Nevertheless, Brees is too wily of a veteran to allow his team to fall into an 0-2 hole on the season. It’ll come down to the wire once again, and the Saints will just barely cover.

Houston vs. @Jacksonville (+7)

This should be a higher point spread; one touchdown will not suffice.

Based off Houston’s preseason standing and performance in Week 1, they’ll have little trouble handling the Jaguars.

Arian Foster will follow in Adrian Peterson’s footsteps. He’ll carve out big yardage and multiple touchdowns. The Texans’ top-ranked defense will relegate Jacksonville’s offense to its feeble 2011 status.

The Jaguars impressed NFL pundits with their work last week in an overtime loss in Minnesota. Blaine Gabbert threw a potentially game-winning touchdown with 20 seconds left and had a great game overall.

His defense, however, surrendered a long completion that led to a game-tying field goal in regulation and game-winner in overtime. It’ll face a different animal when Houston comes to town.

Pick: Texans

Schaub throws a touchdown, Foster rushes for two, and the Texans emerge victorious this Sunday 27-17.

Washington vs. @St. Louis (+3)

This is another tough prediction when it should be one of the easiest of the week.

Or is it?

Washington’s success on the road in extremely tough enemy territory is well documented. If RGIII can excel against the Saints in the Superdome, then he certainly should do the same and more in St. Louis.

Yet the Rams nearly pulled off a victory themselves against the explosive Lions.

Cornerback Cortland Finnegan was a one-man wrecking crew, and rookie Janoris Jenkins snagged an interception for a defensive unit that recorded a sack, a touchdown and multiple tackles for loss. Megatron piled up the yardage, but the Rams D stifled Detroit’s dynamic offense as a whole.

Also, the Redskins offense is not in the same league as the Lions—40 points against the Saints or not. Then again, it is the 15-66 Rams of the past five-plus seasons.

So can St. Louis pull off such a currently unthinkable upset?

Pick: Redskins

Yes—they can—but not in an upcoming reality.

Griffin will come back down to earth, but the ‘Skins are a superior overall team. The defense will handle Sam Bradford and his unintimidating receivers.

Washington will cover the spread.

Dallas vs. @Seattle (+3)

Tony Romo and the Cowboys fueled the media hype-machine with their Week 1 triumph over the division-rival Giants.

Dallas thoroughly downgraded the loss of tight end Jason Witten with production from all the other playmakers on offense. The patchwork offensive line also protected its quarterback effectively enough (allowed just two sacks).

Rob Ryan’s revamped defense kept Eli Manning and the Giants receivers in check as well.

Seattle underachieved against the supposedly inferior Cardinals when it mattered most.

Russell Wilson all but threw a game-winning TD pass, but his team lost in the end. Chris Clemons was a force on defense with two QB hits, a sack, two tackles and a forced fumble. The secondary blanketed Arizona’s receivers, but they failed in their assignments on the winning drive.

Pick: Seahawks

The Seahawks are a different breed in the confines of the Pacific Northwest with “The Sixth Man” behind them.

Their defense will smother the Cowboys pass-catchers and disrupt Romo’s rhythm with consistent pressure. Wilson will revive his preseason success in this upset victory. 

@Pittsburgh (-6) vs. New York Jets

The boys in Vegas clearly still don’t trust Mark Sanchez and the Jets.

But they certainly believe in the historical merits of the Steelers.

Pittsburgh received a Peyton Manning dagger last week in Denver. Manning threw the go-ahead touchdown pass with a little over nine minutes to go.

Ben Roethlisberger produced a solid effort himself until his pick-six to Tracy Porter in the fourth quarter. The Steelers also had problems with their depleted corps of running backs and failed in their pass defense.

The Jets shocked the NFL world with 48 points and an offensive explosion. (Granted, it did come against a questionable Buffalo defense still searching for itself.)

Sanchez dazzled, while his teammates on the other side reduced Fitzpatrick to pure ineffectiveness until the start of the fourth. The game had already been long decided.

Pick: Steelers

Buffalo did not provide an adequate test for the Jets. The Steelers D will seal the game via a fourth-quarter interception of Sanchez. Both quarterbacks will rack up substantial yardage in a matchup with a void in production by the running backs.

Pittsburgh will not cover the spread in a four-point victory.

@San Diego (-6) vs. Tennessee

San Diego handily won a divisional matchup in Oakland with no particular player jumping off the stat sheet.

Well, all players but the kicker. Nate Kaeding booted five field goals and an extra point, scoring 16 of his team’s 22 points.

Rivers was reasonably mistake-free in a one-touchdown effort. With the absence of Ryan Matthews, the running game behind him was nonexistent. The defense, for its part, shut down the Raiders offense.

Tennessee had the unfortunate luck of playing the Patriots in Week 1. It surrendered 162 yards on the ground while only amassing 20 for its own efforts. Locker showed flashes at times, but he simply came up against a superior team.

Pick: Chargers

The Titans are a pretty solid team all the way around. However, the Chargers own the winning matchup with tight end Antonio Gates and the wide receivers. Gronkowski and Hernandez lit up the Titans D last week. A similar result will occur with Gates in Week 2.

Rivers and Co. will cover the spread in a seven-point win.

@San Francisco (-6.5) vs. Detroit

The 49ers pulled off a dominant victory over the Packers at Lambeau Field. The 6.5-point spread in their favor is indicative of that winning performance.

They contained Aaron Rodgers and his receivers all game, not to mention halting any attempt at a ground attack. Alex Smith effectively outplayed Rodgers, while Frank Gore ran for the score that sealed the win. One of the rare blemishes was a blown block-in-the-back call by the refs that led to a Randall Cobb punt return for a touchdown.

Detroit had a much narrower margin of victory over the Rams.

That said, it came in thrilling comeback fashion as Matthew Stafford threw the game-winner with just 10 seconds left. Before that point, he had thrown three interceptions.

It was actually the Lions defense and rushing offense that excelled in this game. The D held St. Louis to 250 total yards, while Detroit backs ran in two scores. Kevin Smith led the way with 62 yards on 13 carries.

Pick: 49ers

These two teams locked horns last season for a hotly contested matchup in Detroit. Smith led a comeback victory on a fourth-down TD pass in the final minutes.

Based off an eight-point win over the Packers on the road, the 49ers will cover the spread over a lesser NFC North foe.

Like last year, Calvin Johnson will rack up some yardage. Yet it’ll only amount to production against a bend-but-not-break defense that’ll also utilize a fierce pass rush and stifling rushing D to keep the Lions out of the end zone.

@Atlanta (-3) vs. Denver

The Falcons did not waste any time in showcasing its new-look offense under coordinator Dirk Koetter.

Matt Ryan accounted for four touchdowns (one rushing) and racked up a rating of 136.4, with receiver Julio Jones hauling in two of them in a 40-24 win over the Chiefs.

The Falcons used a quick-strike passing game that was widely efficient all game long. Kansas City did expose a potential weakness in their run defense with 152 yards and two touchdowns on the ground.

Denver immediately felt the effects of an offense invigorated by Peyton Manning.

He was even more efficient than Ryan against the Steelers, orchestrating a go-ahead fourth-quarter touchdown drive in the process. Denver showed great balance on offense and iced the game with an interception return for a TD. It also held Pittsburgh to under 20 points.

Pick: Falcons

The Broncos looked better from top to bottom and defeated a superior opponent.

The Falcons, however, went into an extremely hostile Arrowhead Stadium and beat a team many had predicted to win. Now they have home-field advantage on Monday night, which will give them just the narrow edge they need.

They’ll fail to cover in an extremely close affair.

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