Andrew Luck: Where Colts QB Will Rank Among Rookies at Season's End

By all indications, the 2012 preseason has proven that the Colts made the right decision: Andrew Luck is the guy who's going to restore this franchise to where Peyton Manning left it before he went down with a neck injury that kept him out of the 2011 season.

Or so Colts fans hope.

In recent years, we've seen a lot of rookie quarterbacks flop—at first, or permanently. Sam Bradford, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2010 draft, has yet to post a winning record in parts of two seasons with the Rams—and the outlook isn't looking positive.

Colt McCoy, the Browns' third-round selection in 2010, has been demoted after two straight seasons of struggles.

Even Matthew Stafford—who exploded for 5,038 yards and 41 touchdowns in 2012 as he led the fifth-best offense in the NFL—was terrible in his first two seasons, posting an overall record of 3-10.

So now we have Luck, allegedly the best quarterback prospect to hit the NFL since Manning himself emerged into the league, and we're expecting him to resurrect a team that finished 2011 with the third-worst offense in the league.

But there is reason to think that Luck is going to go the way of the Ryans and the Flaccos of the world rather than the way of the Bradfords and the McCoys.

The Colts haven't been perfect in the preseason, but Luck has been good—not only in terms of his numbers, but he's looked like a competent leader.

Right off the bat, in the Colts' first game—a 38-3 demolition of the Rams—Luck went 10-for-16 with 188 yards and two touchdowns. In the next two games, he combined to go 30-for-48 with 326 yards, a touchdown and two picks. Not perfect, but when you look at how quarterbacks have done in the preseason—even the most heralded ones, like Tim Tebow and Mark Sanchez—those numbers look pretty good for someone doing this for the first time.

On top of the numbers, though, there is something about Luck that makes him seem like he's unfazed by the prospect of leading the team that Peyton Manning built. He seems utterly ready for it, and that composure is going to serve him well in 2012.

Robert Griffin III has looked good, too. If there is anyone who is going to rival Luck as the top rookie QB in 2012, it figures to be him—if he can stay healthy, which is no sure thing for a dual-threat quarterback.

Ryan Tannehill has looked terrible, but maybe the preseason is deceiving. Brandon Weeden has wavered somewhere in between average and unimpressive.

When all is said and done at the end of December, the Colts may not be on top of the AFC South, and they may not have the best record they've ever had, but they will be in good shape, and it will be because of Luck. This is a quarterback whose NFL IQ has been raved about, who has led a pro-style offense for the last three years and who has thrived in it. On top of that, he's lived up to expectations in the preseason. 

There's no reason to believe that the very same things that led Luck to so much success at Stanford aren't going to factor into his success with the Colts.

But the Colts already knew that when they drafted him.