2012 College Football: Week 1 Picks Against the Spread

Sports fans across the country have been waiting for the final week of August for quite some time. The 2012 college football season is set to kick off, with five straight days of action starting Thursday night through Labor Day.

The Alabama Crimson Tide will start their journey of trying to win back-to-back national titles against the Michigan Wolverines on Saturday, as they are currently 12.5-point favorites in the college football betting odds (courtesy of SBR Forum), while the total stands at 45.

Sports bettors will find it interesting that favorites went 20-20 against the spread (ATS) in Division I Football Bowl Subdivision matchups in the opening week a year ago.

In similar fashion to last year's pick articles, I'll be developing a handicapper line that allows readers to easily compare that number to the Las Vegas line that's released on a weekly basis. 

Let's take a closer look at the first round of action from a betting perspective.   

No. 9 South Carolina Gamecocks at Vanderbilt Commodores

South Carolina Gamecocks head coach Steve Spurrier begins his eighth season in Columbia, as the program looks to build off its first ever AP top-10 finish from a year ago.

Connor Shaw is expected to be under center at Vanderbilt Stadium on Thursday night in front of a nationally-televised audience on ESPN, but it's important to note that he missed a practice last week due to back spasms.

The junior ended up with an 8-1 record in his starts during the 2011 campaign, which included a school-record six Southeastern Conference wins.

Vanderbilt will begin its second campaign under the direction of James Franklin. It looks to gain revenge from last year's 21-3 loss as 14.5-point road underdogs in this series. The offense was limited to just 77 yards in that particular affair.

The Commodores were still one of the more improved offensive units in the SEC despite that result, averaging 9.8 points per game more in 2011 than 2010. Much of that success can be attributed to Franklin's background as an offensive coordinator at Maryland.

I believe the Gamecocks own a major edge in terms of preparation for this contest, as they've played on college football's opening night in three of the last four years. Some will discount this fact due to having an entire offseason, but it's still viable.

South Carolina covered those three games by an average of 14.6 points, which should be enough to cover the current seven-point spread. 

Handicapper Line: South Carolina Gamecocks -8.5

Pick: South Carolina Gamecocks -7

UCLA Bruins at Rice Owls

The UCLA Bruins will play their first game inside the Lone Star State for the second consecutive season as they suffered a 38-34 setback as 1.5-point underdogs on Sept. 3 of last year.

Jim Mora Jr. takes over the program after the firing of Rick Neuheisel, and he's already made one bold move in naming Brett Hundley the team's starting quarterback. He figures to hand the ball off to senior running back Johnathan Franklin quite a bit, as he has gained 2,669 yards during his time in Westwood.

Sports bettors will have a hard time playing the Bruins as 15-point favorites in this spot, considering they've gone 2-10 ATS in their last 12 road games.

Rice begins a very important year under David Bailiff. Fans are starting to forget that he led the program to a 10-win campaign in 2008, especially with last year's 4-8 result. The Owls had a difficult time stopping opponents last year, allowing 462 yards per game.

From a handicapping standpoint, it's hard to ignore that the Owls have grabbed the cash in seven of their last 10 games as a home underdog.

Franklin is one of the best runners in the Pac-12, but the Bruins may lack continuity on the offensive line, which is never good when opening a season on the road with a young quarterback. 

Handicapper Line: UCLA Bruins -12.5

Pick: Rice Owls +15.5

Texas A&M Aggies at Louisiana Tech Bulldogs

The Texas A&M Aggies have moved up a full point from their opening number to be favored by 7.5 in this non-conference affair, which is suspiciously low for one of the new members of the Southeastern Conference against an opponent from the Western Athletic Conference.

Kevin Sumlin is the new front man in College Station, Texas, which is an important part of handicapping this contest. The Houston Cougars won all four of his season openers during his time on the sidelines, scoring at least 38 points in each contest.

Due to his prior experience of coaching within the program in 2001-02, I don't think he'll have a problem in getting the team focused on the task at hand with the Florida Gators on deck.

Sports bettors will notice that the Aggies have won all 10 meetings in this series by an average of 30 points.

Louisiana Tech must be respected in this spot, considering they won two of their last five games versus SEC opponents, including victories over Ole Miss and Mississippi State since the 2008 campaign.

The Bulldogs are familiar in facing Sumlin-coached squads, as they suffered a 35-34 setback to the Cougars as 6.5-point home underdogs on Sept. 17 of last year.

I believe the line is exactly where it needs to be, considering the Aggies are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings in this series, while the Bulldogs have covered their last seven games when getting points. 

Handicapper Line: Texas A&M Aggies -7.5

Washington State Cougars at Brigham Young Cougars

Mike Leach was named the head football coach at Washington State last November, as he took two years off after being fired by Texas Tech. He compiled an impressive 84-43 record during his 10 seasons in Lubbock.

Washington State has gone 6-18 over the last two seasons, but it's important to note that it registered a solid 13-9-2 ATS record in that span.

It will be interesting to see if Leach can continue that type of spread success, especially the team's 8-2 ATS mark in its last 10 games as an underdog of 10.5 or more points.

BYU knows it needs to stop the aerial assault in this matchup. The Cougars are coming off a season in which they allowed 198.1 yards per game through the air. The secondary ranked 11th in the country in pass breakups in 2011.

The Cougars have won seven of their last 11 home games against BCS teams, which fits nicely with covering six of their last seven games as a home favorite of 10.5 or more points.

From a handicapper standpoint, I like that the host covered its final two games against Hawaii and Tulsa last year—two teams that are known to throw it all around the field. 

Handicapper Line: BYU Cougars -14.5

Pick: BYU Cougars -13 

Tennessee Volunteers vs. North Carolina State Wolfpack

The Tennessee Volunteers have opened up a season away from Knoxville just two times in the last nine years, with both instances resulting in setbacks to the UCLA Bruins (24-27) and California Golden Bears (31-45). It's still important to note that this game is being played inside the Georgia Dome in Atlanta—not on the West Coast against a Pac-12 Conference opponent.

Sports bettors will find that the Volunteers have failed to cover the spread in their last five meetings against Atlantic Coast Conference opponents, including a 30-27 loss to the North Carolina Tar Heels as one-point favorites in the Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl on Dec. 30, 2010.

The indefinite suspension of wide receiver Da'Rick Rogers is a major blow, as it's not easy replacing a player that led the Southeastern Conference with 67 catches last year.

North Carolina State finds itself as a 3.5-point neutral-site underdog, but I want to focus on the total of 53 in this matchup.

The Wolfpack enter the season with one of the best secondaries in the country, with David Amerson Jr. leading the way who led the country with 13 interceptions in 2011.

Quarterback Mike Glennon is one of eight potential senior starters on offense, but the group struggled when facing top defenses on its schedule last year.

Tennessee should be much improved on the defensive side of the ball under new coordinator Sal Sunseri. 

Pick: Under 53

No. 14 Boise State Broncos at No. 13 Michigan State Spartans

The Boise State Broncos haven't been an underdog since the 2010 season opener against the Virginia Tech Hokies, but they are currently receiving 6.5 points in this matchup.

Junior quarterback Joe Southwick will certainly be challenged in this matchup after sitting behind Kellen Moore the last two seasons, as he'll be facing a talented defense that's led by defensive end William Gholston.

Michigan State will also be piloted by a newcomer with Andrew Maxwell taking over for three-year starter Kirk Cousins. The Spartans should be able to rely on a talented backfield in the early going, which is led by Le'Veon Bell, who has rushed for 1,553 yards and scored 21 touchdowns on the ground in his career.

Broncos head coach Chris Petersen has challenged his kids out of the gate the last three years, responding with marquee victories in each, including a 35-21 win over the Georgia Bulldogs as three-point favorites in 2011.

The Spartans have faced Youngstown State, Western Michigan and Montana State in their last three season openers.

Despite the recent disparity in lid-lifters, I'm going to recommend laying the points in this spot, as the Spartans' front seven should make things incredibly difficult on the visitor.  

Handicapper Line: Michigan State Spartans -9

Pick: Michigan State Spartans -6.5

Marshall Thundering Herd at No. 11 West Virginia Mountaineers

The Marshall Thundering Herd played one of the toughest non-conference schedules in 2011, which is why opening the season against its biggest rival for the second consecutive year is no big deal.

Sports bettors may be a bit surprised that the Thundering Herd are currently listed as 23.5-point road underdogs in this spot, considering they've covered the last three meetings in this series. 

The West Virginia Mountaineers haven't been seen on a football field since capturing a 70-33 blowout victory over the Clemson Tigers as three-point underdogs in the 2012 Orange Bowl. It will be interesting to see if the program carries that momentum over to this contest.

Saturday's host won last year's meeting by a 34-13 score, but it was declared final with 14:36 left in the fourth quarter due to lightning.

I'm thinking the oddsmaker has nailed this spread.

Handicapper Line: West Virginia Mountaineers -24

Miami RedHawks at No. 18 Ohio State Buckeyes

There will be a football game at Ohio Stadium on Saturday, but all of the media attention will be focused on one individual outside of the lines, as Urban Meyer makes his debut in Columbus after taking a year off from the coaching profession.

Meyer won the season opener in all three of his previous coaching stops, covering the spread in two of those contests. The Buckeyes are expected to win their 34th straight home opener, considering they've been sent out as 23-point favorites.

Miami should be respected in this spot, considering it's led by quarterback Zac Dysert, who has become the school's first three-time captain.

The RedHawks know they are in for quite a challenge, considering their first opponent this year has won 16 straight against Mid-American Conference schools by an average of 25 points per game.

Second-year head coach Don Treadwell started out 0-4 in his first go-around in Oxford, which is something he's likely used as a motivational tool during the offseason. It's important to note that the program was out-gained by just 38 yards on average in that span, which includes a 17-6 setback to the Missouri Tigers as 19.5-point road underdogs in last year's opener.  

Handicapper Line: Ohio State Buckeyes -20

Pick: Miami RedHawks +23

Nevada Wolf Pack at California Golden Bears

Nevada Wolf Pack quarterback Cody Fajardo is going to be a player to watch down the road, but he doesn't have the weapons to exploit a Pac-12 defense at this point in time.

Sports bettors might want to think twice about taking the 10.5 points in this contest, as the Wolf Pack have failed to cover the spread by 21.3 points on average in their last three season openers on the road. 

California Golden Bears head coach Jeff Tedford needs a big year to stay off the college football hot seat, which is certainly possible with Zach Maynard under center.

The senior will lead one of four Pac-12 offenses that returns its top passer, rusher and receiving from a year ago.

Tedford won't call off the dogs if this one gets ugly, as the Golden Bears are out to avenge a 52-31 setback in this series as 2.5-point road favorites on Sept. 17, 2010.  

Handicapper Line: California Golden Bears -16.5

Pick: California Golden Bears -10.5

Southern Miss Golden Eagles at No. 17 Nebraska Cornhuskers

The Southern Miss Golden Eagles have lost seven straight road openers as they begin life under Ellis Johnson after Larry Fedora took off to take the head coaching job at North Carolina. It's a very proud program nonetheless, considering it's posted a winning season in each of the last 18 years.

Sports bettors will notice the the Golden Eagles opened up as 17.5-point road underdogs in this affair, but that number has moved up by 2.5 points to settle in at 20.

Playing a season opener at Memorial Stadium is no picnic for any opponent, considering the Nebraska Cornhuskers have won 26 consecutive home openers.

The early line movement is suspicious due to the Cornhuskers being 4-10 ATS at home over the last three years, which will have me sitting on the sidelines in this one.

Handicapper Line: Nebraska Cornhuskers -20.5

No. 14 Clemson Tigers vs. Auburn Tigers

The Clemson Tigers ended a 14-game losing streak in this series with last year's 38-24 victory as 3.5-point home favorites, but they will now face their angry rival inside the Georgia Dome in Atlanta.

Even though this high-profile affair is being played on a neutral field, it's still important to note that Auburn would much rather serve as the host in this ACC/SEC affair.  This would be a top pick if contested at Jordan-Hare Stadium, considering the program is 7-0 at home when playing with revenge.

I'm going to suggest laying the points in this contest, as Clemson won the statistical battle by a significant 189-yard margin, while they should improve defensively under coordinator Brent Venables. 

Handicapper Line: Clemson Tigers -5

Pick: Clemson Tigers -3 

No. 8 Michigan Wolverines vs. No. 2 Alabama Crimson Tide

The Michigan Wolverines are 1-3 straight up and against the spread as an underdog of 10.5 to 21 points since 1996, which may cause many to back the defending national champions in this spot.

One of my main sports betting contacts in the Michigan area has suggested that Alabama should be favored by 10 points when this game kicks off inside Cowboys Stadium, providing us with three points of value in comparison to the current college football betting odds.    

I'll have more information on this high-profile affair as the week progresses, but it's unlikely that I'll be running to the betting window to play a double-digit favorite that has to replace a ton of talent that departed to the NFL.

Handicapper Line: Alabama Crimson Tide -10

Pick: Michigan Wolverines +13

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