Darren McFadden: Fantasy Draft Value, Red Flags and Predictions for Raiders RB

When it comes to high-risk, high-reward players in fantasy football, Darren McFadden is undeniably the poster child.

His talent is immense, and his production is huge when he's healthy. Of course, that has been a problem over the past two seasons, leaving more than a few fantasy owners with a bigger headache than a grandmother at a death metal concert.

So should you even bother taking the risk this season? And if you do, will you get a good value for your return given his average draft position?

Let's take a closer look at Run DMC.  

Fantasy Strengths

When Darren McFadden is healthy, he is one of the truly elite backs in fantasy. Check out how he shapes up amongst the elite at running back when it comes to fantasy points per game played over the past two seasons:

Player	Points/Game Played
Arian Foster	19.87
LeSean McCoy	16.65
Darren McFadden	16.27
Ray Rice	16.14
Adrian Peterson	15.88
Maurice Jones-Drew	15.47

There are two things to be taken from this: Arian Foster should be the first player off the board (he's only missed three games in the past two years, so he doesn't carry huge risks), and McFadden is pretty awesome when he actually plays.

And with Michael Bush now a Chicago Bear, there is far less a chance McFadden will lose touches to another running back. And head coach Dennis Allen's comments of McFadden (via Brian McIntyre of NFL.com) are very promising:

"

"He's 100 percent," Allen said of McFadden. "He's been extremely explosive throughout camp and in the preseason. He's very vital to our offense and giving our offense a chance to be explosive and keeping defenses honest. So we're going to have to be able to keep him healthy and use him throughout the year.

"I think the thing that you look at is as a running back, I mean, it's a tough position. They take some shots and that's part of football. We can't baby him. We can't protect him. We got to go out there and play football and give him an opportunity to carry the ball, and we hope that he's able to stay healthy."

"

Translation: He's easily the key to the Raiders offense, so expect him to have a big year if he can stay healthy.

There's more to like about McFadden. Offensive coordinator Greg Knapp has already used him in goal-line situations this preseason, has installed a zone-blocking scheme (remember, Knapp came over from the Houston Texans) and has praised McFadden's ability to be an every-down back.

There is so much to love about McFadden's fantasy potential. But of course, there's just one little snafu.

Fantasy Red Flags

Can McFadden actually stay healthy for once?

He's only played 20 of a possible 32 games in the past two seasons. In the first four years of his career, he's already lost 19 games to injuries. He's never played more than 13 games in any one given year.

History suggests he won't make it through this season unscathed either. Other than that, there is very little to dislike against McFadden. He's averaged 5.2 and 5.4 yards per carry in 2010 and 2011, respectively. He's utilized as a weapon in the passing game. He's a big-play threat whenever he touches the ball.

BUT CAN HE STAY HEALTHY? Yes, that question bears repeating and caps lock. It could be the difference between championships and disappointing seasons for fantasy owners.

Film Study

I couldn't resist. This song just seemed so appropriate when determining McFadden's draft value.

Draft-Day Value

In ESPN snake drafts, McFadden has an average draft position of 22.0, meaning you'll be able to snag him in the late second or early third round.

If you think he'll stay healthy this season, that's a huge value. If you fear he'll lose time to injury once again, it's a gigantic risk.

But here's the thing—in the second and third rounds, any running backs you target probably present risk. Jamaal Charles, Adrian Peterson and Fred Jackson are coming off of injuries. Trent Richardson is a rookie and has battled a knee injury himself this offseason. DeMarco Murray has an injury history and a very small NFL resume. Michael Turner, Frank Gore and Steven Jackson aren't getting younger.

So given his upside and the other risks presented by running backs in general, I think McFadden is a very nice late second or early third-round pick. Just be prepared to get nervous every time he touches the ball.

Tweet That Says It All

Michael Fabiano of NFL.com takes way less time making the point I've been trying to drive home in this article:

"

If @dmcfadden20 stays healthy for 14 or more games, he will be a top five fantasy runner this year easy...

— Michael Fabiano (@Michael_Fabiano) August 18, 2012"

As they say, brevity is the soul of Twitter.

Predictions

Games	Rush Yards	Rush TD	Receiving Yards	Receiving TD
13	1,250	11	350	1

Here's what we've learned: Darren McFadden is as good as any fantasy back in the league when he's healthy, and he's never made it through an entire season without getting injured.

Hence, I present to you projections that reflect both.

Truthfully, if McFadden gives you 1,600 yards from scrimmage and 11 touchdowns, you've done very well with your second or third-round pick. Yeah, not having him available for three weeks will be annoying, but you should be handcuffing him with another Raiders' back anyway.

So don't be afraid of McFadden. Be smart and know the risks involved in taking him, but don't simply let him slide past you, either. Chances are, any other back you take in that range will be just as risky.

Hit me up on Twitter—my tweets are cracking like a Ronda Rousey armbar.