Projecting Seahawks QB Russell Wilson's Stats in First Career Start
Russell Wilson has an opportunity to begin a new era for the Seattle Seahawks.
It all begins on Friday against the Kansas City Chiefs when he receives his first pro start. According to Chris Mortensen of ESPN:
"Rookie quarterback Russell Wilson has earned his first start in the team's third preseason game, coach Pete Carroll announced Tuesday, and team sources say a strong performance could elevate him into a starting role for the 2012 regular-season opener.
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So the pressure is on for the third-round draft pick out of Wisconsin.
And it's not a cakewalk game either, because the Chiefs have a sound defense of their own that has much to prove. A starting opportunity for the regular season is potentially in the making for Wilson, therefore he has to fully capitalize.
Passing
Wilson has to anticipate Kansas City bringing the pain early on. What to watch for are his pre-snap reads and when Wilson calls for an audible.
The Chiefs have a strong front seven led by Derrick Johnson who is also one of the NFL's better coverage linebackers. Any time Wilson goes over the middle he can't lock on right away, otherwise trying to read progressions past the second level is rendered moot.
On play-action it's foremost how Wilson carries out the fake. As obvious as that sounds, he has to get the defense moving one direction while expecting the backside to remain disciplined. Wilson possesses the mobility to buy time with his feet, so utilizing that against an aggressive defense will be key.
Pocket awareness, like all rookies, is the most vital area of development.
In addition to adjusting pre-snap, Wilson's ability to feel the rush and maintain poise under duress will get revealed more. The Chiefs present a better-than-advertised pass rush, so receiving pressure must be anticipated. Being that he is only 5'11", continuing to prove he can set up in the pocket and look off safeties is all anyone can ask for.
Forcing the issue of making throws between zones and to the back shoulder down the sidelines will be more telling against a first team opponent.
Projections: 9-of-15 for 130 yards, one TD, one INT, sacked twice
Rushing
For as much ability that Wilson possesses to scramble, he must fight the urge more often.
Yes, he has accounted for 92 yards on eight carries and one touchdown through two preseason appearances. That threat will definitely come in handy on 2nd- and 3rd-and-long situations, but not every time.
Wilson must be aware of linebacker and defensive end spies against a starting defense.
Even when blitzing, Kansas City can loop the ends outward to open up a rushing lane for a nickel/dime back or linebacker (this can be performed vice versa as well). It's a simple X-blitz to manipulate the offensive line and a rookie quarterback. The Chiefs will want to flush him outside and right into the containing defensive end.
If anything, a quarterback draw will come in handy to keep the aggressiveness at bay. Still, using his own ground game must be scarce. The last thing a team needs is the rookie to get happy feet against a starting defense and take off running too much.
This becomes a different story when a complete lack of pass protection is the case, but Seattle's offensive line has been quite impressive thus far. Wilson has to be efficient on the ground when needed, as any short-yard/red-zone situation allows Pete Carroll to keep the playbook open.
Projections: Three carries for 27 yards, two converted first-downs
Verdict
A performance like this against a good defense warrants another starting opportunity.
At this juncture in the preseason, the Seahawks honestly can't make a wrong decision. Both Matt Flynn and Wilson have displayed enough to deserve the starting role in Week 1. There's also not much risk involved, because it's not like Flynn has an immense amount of NFL playing experience over Wilson.
The Seahawks are in a safe position right now and allowing Wilson to start the final preseason game would just present more evaluation leading up to the regular season.
Follow John Rozum on Twitter.

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