Portland Trail Blazers Need to Look Ahead to the 2009 Free Agent Market

The Portland Trail Blazers shocked the sports world by not making any large moves before the trade deadline. Now that the Blazers have fallen out of fourth place in the Western Conference, thanks to a two game losing streak in Texas this week, it seems perfectly clear that the Blazers should have made a move.

In order for the Blazers to make up for their indecisiveness before the free agency, they need to take full advantage of free agency in the summer of 2009.

The Blazers will have four players with expiring contracts this summer. Channing Frye is the team's lone restricted free agent. Shavlik Randolph, Raef LaFrentz, and Michael Ruffin make up the Blazers' unrestricted free agents.

The Blazers also hold a trade exception from the Diogu/Ruffin swap with the Sacramento Kings. If the Blazers do not re-sign any of their players with expiring contracts, they will have $20,394,254 to work with in the free agency.

The first question is if the Blazers should re-sign any of their players this summer.

Channing Frye has provided an unexpected spark off the bench on this current road trip, but his inconsistent play has also been unexpected. He is mainly a pick-and-pop style power forward who relies on 15-foot jumpers to pad his scoring average.

His lack of strength hampers him on the defensive side of the ball, especially when he plays the five. His speed helps to make up for this when he plays the four, allowing him to stick with his defender. The time his lack of strength really shows is in the low-post, both on offense and defense, when he gets pushed around by bigger, stronger players.

Frye is a high-character guy, but I do not think he fits into the Blazers' long term plans. Look for the Blazers to let him go.

Raef LaFrentz is way past his prime. His game is mainly played on the perimeter. Thanks to his injury, the Blazers do not have to pay the rest of his contract. The only reason he is on the roster this year was to be used as trade bait, which obviously did not work out too well. Look for the Blazers to let him go as well.

The Blazers traded for Michael Ruffin for two reasons. His contract is smaller than Ike Diogu's, which means that the Blazers would not have to dig into their pockets as deep as they would have with Diogu. They also received a nice trade exception to use in the summer. Ruffin should also be looking for a new job this summer.

Shavlik Randolph can be used as an example to many aspiring NBA players. He was not drafted out of Duke University. Instead, he signed a free agent contract with the Philadelphia 76ers in 2005. In 2006, Randolph was slated to become the Sixers' starting power forward, before dislocating and breaking the same ankle in a November practice. Doctors had to reset the foot at the Sixers' practice facility. Simply put, the injury was so gruesome that Randolph's foot was facing the wrong direction.

He's had to overcome terrible odds, but Randolph should be re-signed. His mix of passing and speed are unheard of for a power forward as young as he is. With time and grooming, Randolph can become a fine backup power forward. Plus, the Blazers can pay him next to nothing and still keep him.

That settles the dispute over who the Blazers should re-sign. Now let's get to the more exciting question. Who should the Blazers go after in the free agency?

As shown this season, the Blazers need a backup power forward, a backup point guard, and a backup and starting small forward. Players such as Channing Frye, Sergio Rodriguez, and Travis Outlaw have been terribly inconsistent.

The Blazers have some "deadwood" that they need to cut before they can make any moves. Nate McMillan has declared that he will be running a strict nine-player rotation.

Travis Outlaw and Sergio Rodriguez do not have expiring contracts, but the Blazers should look to trade them both away in the offseason. Outlaw can provide a spark off the bench, but he has to become more consistent. Rodriguez has potential, but his cravings for flashy passing have resulted in more turnovers than assists.

Martell Webster was another draft-day debacle by the Blazers' front office staff before Kevin Pritchard took over at the helm. The Blazers held the fourth pick in the 2005 draft. Instead of drafting Chris Paul, the Blazers traded their fourth pick for two other first round picks. They ended up drafting Martell Webster and Serge Ibaka.

Webster can provide a spark offensively, but he is a liability on defense. He has been injured all season with a slow-healing stress fracture in his left foot's fifth metatarsal. When he is healthy, stupidly offensive-minded teams like the Golden State Warriors and the Los Angeles Clippers would crave his offensive potential.

Jerryd Bayless is the point guard of the future for the Blazers. He should not be playing behind Rodriguez. Nicholas Batum is the small forward of the future for the Blazers. He needs a veteran small forward to learn under.

The Blazers could look to deal a combo of Webster, Outlaw, and Rodriguez for a big time small forward such as Tayshaun Prince. Detroit will be in a rebuilding mode this offseason, and in order to rebuild, they are going to need a stock of young talent with vast potential. This trade would work out very well for the Blazers, because it would push Bayless to second string point guard, and move Batum to the second unit.

After all these moves, the Blazers can now look for players to sign in the free agency. The positions that would need upgrade would be backup power forward. Randolph would be the long term fix, but the Blazers will need instant contribution.

Power forwards that hold either early-termination or player options that can make them unrestricted free agents in 2009 include Carlos Boozer, Anderson Varejao, Al Harrington, Jermaine O'Neal, Kwame Brown, and Etan Thomas.

This is a pretty solid group of players, but the deciding factor for the Blazers to go after any of these players would be the amount of playing time they would receive. With LaMarcus Aldridge becoming a 35-40 mpg player, the most likely players from this group tthat would even think to accept a role behind Aldridge would be Varejao, Brown, and Thomas.

Varejao has the potential to be amazing. He's got quick feet, plays terrific pick-and-roll defense, draws a great number of offensive fouls, hustles, and has a great defensive rebound rate. The only things holding him back is his "trigger happiness" at mid-range, and his abysmal free-throw percentage. If Varejao can fix both these things, he can become an instant contributor to any squad.

Brown is a disaster on offense, but his defense is quite good. The former No. 1 pick has never lived up to his potential, and quite honestly, should be playing on the bench for the San Antonio Spurs, where his defensive skills can really shine.

Thomas has a work-horse mentality that every coach loves. His only shortcomings are on the offensive side of the ball. If he fixes those, he can become a great addition to any team.

Power forwards that are restricted free agents in 2009 include David Lee, Paul Millsap, Charlie Villanueva, Leon Powe, Sean May, Hakim Warrick, and Glen Davis.

David Lee could be lured away from New York in their attempt to clear cap space. Lee's contract is so small that he would be a fool to stay with New York, as he could earn much more money elsewhere. The only question for the Blazers is if he be willing to take the small amount of playing time. If so, look for the Blazers to gobble him up.

Paul Millsap would be an amazing addition to the Blazers. With Boozer having been injured for most of the season, Millsap has been able to prove to the world that he will be an All-Star someday. Utah would like to keep him, but this all depends on whether or not Boozer opts out of the final year of his contract. Utah cannot afford to keep both.

It is highly unlikely that Portland would be able to nab Millsap, as Utah would do everything in their power to make sure that he does not go to a division rival if they do  not re-sign him.

Hakim Warrick would be another nice addition to the Blazers. Though I am not sure if the Grizzlies would consider letting a member of their big three (Conley, Mayo, and Warrick) slip away.

The two most notable power forwards that are unrestricted free agents in 2009 are Antonio McDyess and Brandon Bass.

McDyess is not what he used to be. He is aging like milk. Bass on the other hand is a young buck, full of potential, and has shown many glimpses of greatness with the Mavericks this season.

So, the way I see it, Portland should go after one of the following players in the free agency: Varejao or Thomas (if they opt out of the final years of their contracts), Lee, Millsap, Warrick, or Bass. If Lee is happy with the minutes off the bench, the Blazers should go after him. If not, the most logical player to go after would be Bass.

If the Blazers are able to trade for Tayshaun Prince in the offseason, and sign either of the aforementioned free agents, we could very well be looking at a championship contender in 2010.