Purdue's Strengths and Weaknesses as the Big Dance Nears

March Madness is quickly approaching and the Purdue Boilermaker basketball team has put itself in great position to win the Big Ten title and earn an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament.

The Boilers (21-6, 10-4) are currently on a four-game winning streak and have not lost since forward Robbie Hummel returned to the lineup after suffering a hairline fracture in his back.

I have been fortunate enough to watch 26 of the 27 games Purdue has played this year (I missed the Ball State game, since it wasn't televised) and will give a brief rundown of the Boilers’ strengths, weaknesses, and what fans can expect from them as the Big Ten season winds down and March Madness heats up.

STRENGTHS

Defense

Defense is the first priority for this team, and the numbers show it. Purdue is eighth in the nation in scoring defense (58.0) and fifth in the nation in field goal percentage defense (37.6).

They hang their hat on the “D,” and with good reason. They are 20-0 when their opponents score 64 points or less, but only 1-6 when they score 65 or more.

The in-your-face style that Purdue runs almost always gives other teams problems and forces them into bad shots. The Boilers exclusively play a full court man-to-man defense. You will never see them in a zone or in a press other than pure man-to-man.

Purdue can win games with an off night on the offensive end due to the smothering defense they play.

Experience and Chemistry

Purdue plays only one freshman in PG Lewis Jackson, but he has been starting for most of the season and his play has been improving as of late.

Even though three sophomores lead the team in scoring, they were all starters last year and every starter from last season remains on this team. They are an experienced team that has already battled for the Big Ten title and won a game in the NCAA Tournament.

Improved Inside/Outside Game

The emergence of JaJuan Johnson has been a huge reason for the Boilers’ success this season, but his offensive abilities have been aided by the ability of his teammates to shoot the three.

While Purdue has not shot the ball well from the arc, Johnson is the only regular player who does not have a green light from deep. This leaves four other players on the floor with range to make threes.

Johnson has great post moves, can make mid-range jumpers, and can even put the ball on the floor. His offensive improvement coupled with the Boilers’ ability to shoot the three gives the offense multiple options and room to work.

WEAKNESSES

Rebounding

Purdue’s rebounding margin is -0.6 on the season. Because the Boilermakers force teams to shoot such a low percentage, it is imperative that they rebound well.

Purdue usually plays with a power forward/center, small forward, and then three guards. Sometimes they will even go with four guards if Hummel is out of the game.

Because of their lineups, Purdue usually has a smaller team than their opponents on the floor. While this helps with quickness, it hurts on the glass.

Every player on the floor has to rebound well for Purdue to have a chance to go deep in the tournament.

Depth and Health

This has been an issue since the beginning of Big Ten play, as Hummel, Jackson, and Chris Kramer have all missed games due to injuries.

Hummel’s hairline fracture in the L5 vertebrae of his back is the most serious injury, and may determine how successful the season actually is.

Hummel has missed five games due to the injury, including three in a row in early February when Purdue won only one game.

Purdue is 19-3 with Hummel, but only 2-3 without him. He is clearly a key part and vital to this Boilermaker team.

If Hummel’s injury flares up again and another player would go down, Purdue would be forced to use a seven-man rotation at best. 

Purdue, Hummel in particular, must remain healthy for them to continue their success.

Free-Throw Shooting

The Boilers are under 70 percent from the season. There is not much to say here except that this must improve.

Purdue has lost games already this year due to poor and un-clutch free-throw shooting.

What to Expect in the Future

Purdue controls their own destiny in terms of a Big Ten championship. If they win out, they win the title. However, that includes going to Michigan State and coming away with a win.

Getting to the MSU game without a loss is feasible. The Boilers will probably be favored in all of their games until then, with an away trip at Michigan tonight followed by a homestand against Ohio State and Northwestern.

At this point, I would probably give the Boilers a little under a 50 percent chance to win all four games. The game in East Lansing will just be very difficult with the Big Ten on the line in front of a raucous crowd.

As for the Big Ten and NCAA Tournaments, I feel the Boilers have a good shot to do well. They are playing solid ball as of late and finally getting healthy.

Purdue fans should expect at least a finals appearance in the Big Ten tourney and Sweet Sixteen visit in the NCAA tourney. This team is playing well enough to earn at least a four seed in the Big Dance and it would be a big disappointment to not make the Sweet Sixteen.

Going any further than that would be a bonus, but I’m not sure if this team has the overall talent to advance to the Final Four. However, Purdue fans should be excited for what will be an exciting finish to the season.