Projecting the Field of 65: March 14

Can we finally put to rest this ridiculous talk of expanding the NCAA Tournament?

After what we saw out of "Wallflowers" (teams not quite ready to take part in the Big Dance) yesterday, the NCAA should strongly consider removing that last at-large spot, getting rid of the play-in game and returning the field to its perfect 64 team field.

Does anyone want to dance?

The following bubbles lost crucial conference tournament games yesterday: UMass, Oregon, Arizona St, Ole Miss, Dayton, Baylor, Arizona, Villanova, UAB, Houston, New Mexico, Texas Tech, Maryland and Florida. UNLV almost lost too. Maybe Syracuse still has a shot. Let's assess the damage.

Big East

Dancing with a Hottie: Georgetown (2 seed), Louisville (3 seed), UConn (4 seed), Notre Dame (6 seed), Marquette (7 seed), West Virginia (8 seed), Pittsburgh (8 seed)

Wallflowers: Villanova (13 seed)

Villanova is my last team in the field, despite its loss to top-seeded Georgetown Thursday in the Big East Tournament quarterfinals.

The Wildcats lost early in the day and might have thought their at-large hopes were gone, but as bubble teams continued to fall, 'Nova moved back up in the pecking order.

The Wildcats hold wins over George Mason, at Temple, Pittsburgh, two away from home against Syracuse, West Virginia and UConn.

'Nova also lost games at Georgetown and on a neutral court versus NC State on controversial calls. That fact may be considered on Sunday.

Atlantic 10

Dancing with a Hottie: Xavier (3 seed)

Wallflowers: Saint Joseph's (11 seed), Temple (11 seed), UMass (12 seed), Dayton (12 seed)

UMass could have pretty much locked itself up with a win over Charlotte in the A-10 quarters, but like most bubbles yesterday, the Minutemen lost.

Unlike other Wallflowers, however, UMass finished the season strong winning six of its last seven and that's why I still have the Minutemen in the field. UMass won on the road at Syracuse, Dayton and Rhode Island and beat Houston and URI at home. The Minutemen's RPI is a reasonable 44.

Dayton didn't do itself any favors by falling to Xavier Thursday, but a loss to the A-10 regular season champs didn't hurt the Fliers' already strong RPI too much (they dropped from 29 to 33), and with victories at Louisville and at home against Pitt, combined with winning four of its last five, Dayton remains in my field.

With most bubbles losing these days, any team that continues to win has to feel confident.

St. Joe's has won two straight to reach the A-10 semis today against Xavier. A win Friday should lock things up for the Hawks, but a loss might not be the end of the road.

The Philly school is 4-4 versus the top 50 and 7-7 in games against the top 100. Not too many bubbles have that many solid wins without a greater number of losses.

Saint Joseph's also swept UMass, won at Temple, crushed Villanova and had a huge late season win over Xavier.

Temple is in the field for now, but its stay could be brief. If the Owls can get past Charlotte today in the A-10 semis, that'll be six straight victories, including a win at St. Joe's.  That should be enough to get to the dance.

Temple has also beaten UMass and Xavier.

ACC

Dancing with a Hottie: North Carolina (1 seed), Duke (2 seed), Clemson (5 seed), Miami (9 seed)

Wallflowers: Virginia Tech (10th out)

Maryland has been removed from consideration following its loss to BC. The Terps are now 18-14 with a woeful RPI of 81.

Virginia Tech's chances are looking better as the teams around them continue to lose. But I still think the Hokies need to beat Miami today and then UNC tomorrow to get into the Dance.

VA Tech is 18-12 with an RPI of 59 and an 0-6 record vs. the top 50.

Writers want to put them in because they were 9-7 in the ACC, but if you take a closer look at who they beat, you will find that they didn't win a single game against the best teams in the conference (UNC, Duke, Clemson, Miami).

Miami has to be locked up now. The 'Canes survived Thursday's bubble holocaust by downing NC State and now hold an RPI of 26 with big wins over Miss State, Clemson and Duke. They also beat VCU and won at Va Tech.

Pac-10

Dancing with a Hottie: UCLA (1 seed), Stanford (3 seed), Washington State (4 seed), USC (7 seed)

Wallflowers: Arizona State (1st out), Oregon (4th out), Arizona (5th out)

Thursday was not a good day for the Pac-10. The conference went from possibly getting seven teams into the NCAAs down to maybe just four.

Arizona State lost to USC on a controversial over-the-back call, which may garner them some sympathy on Selection Sunday. However, if the Sun Devils don't get in, they can't blame just the refs.

ASU finished the season 5-10 and its RPI has dropped to 80. Since 1999, the lowest RPI to earn an at large was No. 70 Air Force in 2004.

No matter what people say about Arizona State's five top 50 wins (six teams missed the tournament with five top 50 wins last year), ASU is in trouble.

Oregon won its final three games of the regular season, but it had to considering the Ducks went 3-8 before that. That meant Oregon needed to beat Washington State yesterday and the Ducks couldn't do it.

They won four games against the top 50 but they also lost nine of those top-flight contests. I think the main argument come Selection Sunday is going to be between supporters of the Pac 10 and those who back the A-10 and other mid majors.

Teams on the west coast had a ton of good wins, but they also had a great deal more opportunities to pick up those victories than teams in other conferences.

Which is better, Dayton's 3-4 record vs. the top 50 or Oregon's 4-9? I'd say Dayton's.

It's the same story for Arizona, who lost to Stanford yesterday to drop its record to a dismal 18-14. The 39 RPI is still solid thanks to a number 2 SOS, but once again, which is better, the Wildcats' 10-12 mark vs. the top 100 or St. Joe's 7-7? I'd pick the Hawks.

Big 12

Dancing with a Hottie: Texas (2 seed), Kansas (2 seed), Oklahoma (6 seed), Kansas State (8 seed)

Dancing with a Butterface: Texas A&M (10 seed)

Wallflowers: Baylor (2nd out), Oklahoma St (8th out)

A&M might have been the big winner on Thursday as it was one of the few bubble teams to actually win a first round conference tournament game.

The Aggies beat Iowa State and I'd say they're in pretty good shape considering they've beaten Texas, Oklahoma and Baylor on the road, all since Jan. 30. Unlike most bubbles, Texas A&M also has no losses to teams ranked below 92 in the RPI.

I think the Aggies' victory Thursday locked things up for Kansas State because the Wildcats' RPI can sustain a loss to A&M, but it may not have been able to hold up in the eyes of the committee with a defeat at the hands of the Cyclones in today's quarters.

Baylor, meanwhile, is in a lot of trouble after it became the first five seed in Big 12 Tournament history to lose a first round game to a 12 seed (Colorado in double OT).

The Bears have gone 5-8 since starting the season 15-2 and their 3-8 mark against the top 50 may not be enough. Baylor does have a big non-conference win over Notre Dame in the Virgin Islands, but that came all the way back in November.

Oklahoma State kept its slim at-large hopes alive yesterday while removing Texas Tech from all consideration.

SEC

Dancing with a Hottie: Tennessee (1 seed), Vanderbilt (5 seed), Mississippi State (9 seed), Kentucky (10 seed)

Dancing with a Butterface: Arkansas (10 seed)

Wallflowers: Mississippi (12 seed)

That's right, I still have Ole Miss in my field.

Despite its overtime loss to Georgia in the first round of the SEC Tourney, the Rebels still have a better profile than a lot of the other bubble teams that lost yesterday.

Like a lot of Wallflowers, Ole Miss has too many bad losses, but unlike the teams its competing against, Mississippi is 5-4 against the top 50 and 7-4 versus the top 100. The Rebels are one of only 18 teams in the country with at least five wins vs. the top 50 and a winning record vs. the top 50.

And no, Arizona State and Arizona do not fall into that category. Ole Miss has wins over South Alabama, New Mexico, Winthrop and Clemson out of conference and league victories against Florida, Vandy, Miss State and Arkansas. It's certainly going to be difficult, but I think they're in right now.

I'm locking up Kentucky after all the bubble losses yesterday. The Wildcats have played well enough down the stretch (11-2) that there's no way they can fall behind all the teams that lost yesterday, even if Kentucky loses to Georgia today.

Arkansas picked up a first round bye, and therefore, was also able to avoid the muck of Thursday, but the Hogs may want to get in the semi-finals before they feel completely safe.

Florida is done.

Big Ten

Dancing with a Hottie: Wisconsin (3 seed), Purdue (4 seed), Indiana (5 seed), Michigan State (5 seed)

Wallflowers: Ohio State (11 seed)

Can Ohio State actually sustain a loss to Michigan State today following what happened yesterday? Probably not, but the chances look a lot better now.

The Buckeyes beat two top-25 teams (Purdue and Michigan State) in the past couple weeks to get themselves back in the field for the first time since January, but they might have to beat Sparty again in the 4/5 game to solidify a spot in the tournament.

Other At-Large Candidates

Dancing with a Hottie: Memphis (1 seed), Drake (5 seed), Butler (6 seed), Gonzaga (7 seed), St. Mary's (7 seed), BYU (6 seed), Kent State (8 seed)

Dancing with a Butterface: UNLV (9 seed), South Alabama (10 seed)

Wallflowers: Illinois State (3rd out), Southern Illinois (6th out), VCU (7th out), Creighton (9th out)

Remember how every one was saying the mid major bubbles are at a disadvantage because once they get knocked out of their tournaments early, they have to just sit around and watch as the major conference bubbles have a ton of chances to improve their resume?

Not this year.

BYU and Kent State are locked up after the regular season champs won their respective first round games.

South Alabama is in a lot better shape right now and despite beating no one who will be in the NCAA Tournament, Illinois State may even be dancing if a couple more bubbles lose today.

UAB, Houston and New Mexico showed their true colors by all losing in their first conference tournament games yesterday and have been removed from consideration.

UNLV was close to joining them, but the Rebels eeked out an 89-88 win on its home floor against TCU and are in pretty good shape now with an RPI of 29. Vegas may have to win again today, however, and get to the finals because the tournament is being held in its own gym.