Peyton Manning: Determining the Fantasy Value of Broncos QB

If you told me in 2010 that Peyton Manning would be the eighth quarterback selected in ESPN fantasy football snake drafts in 2012, I would have laughed at you. I may have even used various synonyms for "crazy" when describing you.

Back then, Manning was coming off a season that saw him pass for 4,700 yards and 33 touchdowns, finishing fourth in the fantasy quarterback rankings (in standard-scoring leagues). 

But he then missed the 2011 season with a neck injury, the Indianapolis Colts were terrible and earned the top pick in the 2012 draft, Peyton Manning signed with the Denver Broncos, the Colts drafted Andrew Luck and the rest, as they say, is history.

In ESPN snake drafts, Manning is available at the top of the fifth round, with an ADP of 41.5. On one hand, that seems like it makes him a steal. On the other, given that he's coming off an injured neck and is playing for a new team with different personnel, the risk Manning presents is palpable.

So how exactly should you value Manning in fantasy football this season? Is he going to be an excellent value this season, or a player whom owners overdraft given his name recognition?

For those among us who believe that Manning will produce if he can stay healthy, there's no reason to think he can't be a top-five fantasy quarterback. 

Consider his past. In 11 of his 13 seasons, he's thrown for 4,000 or more yards. He's never thrown less than 26 touchdown passes in his career, and his 17 interceptions in 2010 was the most he's thrown since 2002.

Plus, the Broncos have solid receivers in Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker, decent tight ends in Jacob Tamme and Joel Dreessen and a running game good enough to keep defenses honest. They have a supporting cast that Manning can certainly work with.

In all honesty, it is that running game that could ultimately take a bite out of Manning's fantasy production. I think we'll see Manning run a Broncos offense that is a bit more conservative than the one he ran in Indianapolis, relying on ball control more often and taking some pressure off a very good defense.

And there are also really good quarterbacks being selected behind Manning, meaning if you have serious concerns about No. 18, there are other options to be had.

You could have Tony Romo (48.4), Philip Rivers (59.2), Matt Ryan (70.6) or Ben Roethlisberger (81.8) with picks after Manning. All three have their own fantasy questions, but there is no need to roll the dice on Manning if you think he'll get hurt again.

If I was going to take Manning, here's how I would approach the draft.

I would target him for the sixth round, and if there was a long run of quarterbacks, I would go as high as the fifth to take him. I would then either pair him with a reliable quarterback like Roethlisberger a round or two later or I would add a bounce-back candidate like Jay Cutler a bit further down the board.

Of course, in today's pass-heavy NFL, I would rather have a more rock-solid option at quarterback like Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Tom Brady or Matthew Stafford. But I think if you can land Manning in the sixth round and pair him with a reliable backup option, you should get solid production from No. 18.

Given that he's an injury concern, he's coming off a missed season and the Broncos will probably run more than the Colts used to, I think it's smart to somewhat temper your expectations for Manning. I'm thinking 4,200 yards, 27 touchdowns and 15 interceptions—not shabby numbers by any standard.

Don't be afraid to draft Manning. But don't overpay, and for heaven's sake, make sure you have a backup plan.

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