Russia vs Argentina: Complete Bronze-Medal Game Preview, Analysis and Prediction

With Russia coming up short 67-59 against Spain and Argentina getting blown out by Team USA 109-83, the two countries will now face off in the Bronze Medal Game to see which walks away with some hardware around their necks.

Time, TV, Location, Online

6am ET, NBC Sports Network, London, You can watch the game here.

Record of Each Team

Russia: 5-2
Argentina: 4-3

Rosters

Russia: Anton Ponkrashov, Alexey Shved, Victor Khryapa, Andrei Kirilenko, Timofey Mozgov, Vitally Fridzon, Sergey Monya, Semen Antonov, Sasha Kaun, Sergey Karasev, Evgeny Voronov, Dmitry Khvostov 

Argentina: Pablo Prigioni, Manu Ginobili, Carlos Delfino, Andres Nocioni, Luis Scola, Juan Gutierrez, Leonardo Gutierrez, Facundo Campazzo, Federico Kammerichs, Marcos Mata, Martin Leiva, Hernan Jasen

Betting Line

Argentina (-3.5) over Russia

Key Storyline To Watch For: Disappointment vs. Pride

Argentina’s goal is always to play for the gold. While that may seem like a simplistic statement to make, it simply means they are good enough in the national rankings and have had enough success on the international level that they are always realistically shooting for a “gold medal game or bust” type of tournament.

Russia hasn’t been in a medal game for men’s basketball since 1992 when the Dream Team roamed the earth. As they’ve put together their current team over the last few years, it’s been easy to see a lot of momentum building. The fact that they got to a medal game over countries like France and Lithuania (they’ve been in the bronze medal game every year since the Soviet Union broke apart) is a huge statement for them to make internationally.

So can Argentina put aside the disappointment of not making their goal and focus to still bring home the bronze? Will Russia’s return to the medal stage fuel them with enough pride to overwhelm Argentina?

Luckily for Argentina, they really are a team of veteran players and don’t have an influx of young guys that may be influenced heavily by the disappointment of “just playing” for the bronze. They’ll need all the focus they can muster against Russia.

Key Matchup: Andrei Kirilenko vs. Carlos Delfino

Considering Kirilenko is still one of the best defenders in this tournament, his assignment is usually going to be a key one in any Olympic basketball game. I think his ability to shut down or frustrate Carlos Delfino is probably his biggest assignment in this game.

It’s possible they put Kirilenko on Manu Ginobili for key stretches and he might even see a little time against Scola inside. But being able to keep Carlos Delfino from going off is going to be the key to this game. Delfino moves so well without the ball and Argentina is great at getting him open.

As you can see in these two plays, Delfino seems to know exactly where to position himself on the perimeter. In the first shot, he waits until his defender is forced to help before he sidesteps to a more open spot in the corner. 

In the second play, he recognizes the perimeter’s poor spacing as Scola goes to the baseline. Instead of sticking near Prigioni, he makes Chris Paul have to guard two guys at a greater distance apart by sliding into the corner where nobody can challenge him.

Transition is probably where you have to worry about Delfino the most. This three-pointer is coming off a made basket by Team USA. They simply hustle the ball up the court, pretend like they’re moving Delfino toward the other side of the court and set a pindown screen for him to pop up. Even the length of Durant can’t bother Delfino’s shot once he hops into rhythm.

It’s very basic stuff but sometimes the basic stuff works. Delfino is great at seeing a weak spot in the coverage of the defense and floating over to that spot. Once he has his feet set, the only thing you can do is pray that he misses or hope the Olympic skeet shooters are looking for more practice with the ball flying through the air.

If Kirilenko is assigned to shut down Delfino (and I think he should be), then he’s going to have a hard time fighting his instincts to play help defense. He loves to clamp down on post players and guys driving into the lane. Argentina doesn’t really have a problem recognizing stuff like that and just move the ball fluidly.

Delfino is unlikely to create much off the dribble against Kirilenko but if Andrei lets him get out of his closeout range, Russia could have a lot of problems defensively.

The Game Will Be Close If: Russia can get solid play from their backcourt

Against Spain, Russia really struggled to get their backcourt going. Spain doesn’t exactly have a bevy of perimeter defenders with Jose Calderon, Rudy Fernandez and Juan Carlos Navarro, and yet the Russian guards still struggled so there isn’t much excuse for Alexey Shved and Anton Ponkrashov for combining for 5-of-16 shooting and 1-of-10 from three-point range.

Shved is in a pretty big slump the last couple games. He’s made just three of his last 18 shots from the field and hasn’t made a three-pointer in two games. He’s done a good job distributing the ball with 13 assists in those two games, but Russia needs him to be in rhythm with his jumper.

Ponkrashov has also struggled in these two games. He’s made just 38.8 percent of his shots and has seven total assists. With Anton, Russia is better off when he’s getting into the mid-range area for a pull-jumper. Argentina struggles defensively keeping teams out of the paint, so without a big frontcourt to deter him, Ponkrashov should be able to get more going his way.

Shved, though, may be the key to all of it. The majority of the shots he took against Spain were contested jumpers. Shved can be a bit moody too, so when his jumper isn’t falling, he can kind of get in his own head.

Argentina has so much firepower from their backcourt that if Anton and Alexey can’t get more working toward the basket, Russia probably won’t be wearing medals at the podium.

The Player Russia Has to Contain: Manu Ginobili

I’m not sure how much more you have to say about Manu Ginobili, especially when he’s on the international stage. Manu is one of the greatest international players we’ve ever seen. His body control often defies physics and all levels of comprehension.

Usually when it looks like he should be off-balance, it means his defender has no chance of being in position to make the play.

A simple pick-and-roll can turn into a nightmare with Ginobili. You have no idea where he’s going to go. You have to guard against the Euro/Manu-step. You have to be prepared for him to go in a straight line. And then he’ll probably just leave you by stopping on a dime for a quick floater.

Also when you’re protecting against the drive, he has a deadly stepback jumper that almost seems unfair. There are few players in the world as accurate as Manu with the stepback. He recognizes your shift in body weight so instantaneously that before you know you’re out of position, he takes the shot.

He’s also incredibly sneaky in transition. Argentina knows that if they can Manu the ball quickly around halfcourt, he can dart toward the basket for a relatively easy score. You can’t lose focus for one second against Manu because he knows when to pounce.

I don’t really have an answer for how Russia can defend him. Nobody in the world does. You try to build a wall against him and hope he misses. He’s the leading scorer (most points not average) in this tournament for a reason.

X Factor: Outside shooting

Argentina is a team that relies heavily on made three-point baskets and Russia uses it kind of as a luxury. Throughout this tournament, Argentina has averaged nine made three-pointers each game and is shooting 37 percent from long range. Only Team USA and China have shot better from deep.

Russia takes about five fewer attempts per game and has only made them at a 32 percent clip. But that doesn’t mean Russia doesn’t need to make a good percentage of outside shots. Late in games is when we’ve typically seen Russia go for big shots by stepping beyond the arc.

Shved and Ponkrashov will be their two most likely shooters while handling the ball, and they’d likely set up Kirilenko or Fridzon for those shots. Much like in the way Delfino floats without the ball, Fridzon could try to find holes in the help defense to make Argentina pay. For the most part, we’ll see Russia trying to go inside for body blows all day before they attempt to throw a haymaker or two.

It Will Be an Argentina Blowout If Three-Point Shooting Falls

So how does Argentina get their three-point attempts?

They do it in a variety of ways. Unless Manu is initiating the play, it’s unlikely a ball handler will just start jacking jumpers. Argentina is more about spot-up threes than any other type of shot. A lot of this comes off the pick-and-roll and driving to the basket.

Argentina is so good at getting momentum toward the basket and they suck the defense in. Off this pick-and-roll, they leave Kobe guarding two shooters at different spots on the floor. Delfino ends up getting the pass near the top and does his patented hop to get into rhythm for the shot.

This may be my favorite play Argentina has run for Manu in the Olympics. Argentina does a great job of attacking early in the shot clock. They don’t wait a lot to see what will develop and try to hit your defense right away. By setting a double screen with Nocioni and then Scola, it guarantees Manu’s defender is taken out of the play, leaving the onus on Scola’s defender (most often a big man) to react and challenge the shot.

If they close out too hard with the big man, Ginobili will drive right by him. Otherwise, he has a pretty open look at a three-pointer. If Mozgov or Kaun are guarding Scola, I don’t see how Russia could ever defend it without creating an advantage for Argentina.

And you can’t forget about Argentina in transition. Again, they love to catch you napping. At the end of the first half against Team USA, they waited until LeBron stepped up to stop Campazzo. That left Kevin Love to close out on Manu and he buried the jumper.

Argentina loves to hit you with deep shots all game but most of them are by design. It isn’t a lot of irresponsible shooting.

Prediction: Argentina takes home the bronze

This Argentina team doesn’t have much time left together. Maybe they’ll still be mostly together for the 2016 games in Rio de Janeiro, but the golden age of basketball for this country is just about done.

I have a hard time going against Manu Ginobili teams anyway, so I think I’ll avoid going for the Russian upset and say Argentina pulls away in the last few minutes of this game. I think they can still find ways to take advantage of Russia’s help defense. Argentina handles pressure well and Scola should be able to do solid work against Russia’s big men because of it.

With the way these two teams have fought all tournament, it wouldn’t shock me if this ended up being one of the most entertaining games we’ve seen this year.