Spain vs. Russia: Why Another Russian Victory Wouldn't Be an Upset

When the upstart Russian national basketball team took down world No. 2 Spain 77-74 in preliminary-round action, it was looked at as one of the biggest upsets of these Olympic Games.

Russia got a shocking 24 points from reserve guard Vitaliy Fridzon as the team came back from a 28-11 first-quarter deficit to become Group B champions.

But this time the stakes are far higher than preliminary group champion status. On the line in this rematch is a spot in the gold-medal game and a guarantee of Olympic glory.

And, according to some, Russia is exactly the opponent Spain wanted in its semifinal game.

Most publicly vocal in that feeling is French forward Nicolas Batum, who is at the center of the Olympics' second groin-punching controversy after hitting Spanish guard Juan-Carlos Navarro below the belt in France's 66-59 loss to Spain in the quarterfinals.

Via Yahoo! Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski:

"

Batum was pleased with himself. In the wake of a 66-59 loss, he stood and declared publicly what France and several rivals had been privately saying: Spain let itself lose to Brazil in the preliminaries to spare themselves a meeting with the United States until the gold-medal game.

"

Groin shots and tanking or not, Russia-Spain is the matchup we have in this semifinal matchup. And coming into this contest, many feel that it would be a massive upset if Russia pulled off its second upset of Spain within a week.

Those people are wrong.

Here are a few reasons why:

Andrei Kirilenko and Alexey Shved were terrible against Spain

The biggest reason Russia needed to rely on clutch play from reserves in its first matchup versus Spain was the team's two best players completely no-showed the contest.

In five games against non-Spanish opponents in London, forward Andrei Kirilenko has averaged 20.4 points per game on 63.6 percent shooting. Against Spain, Russia's best player couldn't find his shot and put up just eight points on 2-for-8 shooting.

And, somehow, Kirilenko's performance was still far superior to the lost performance turned in by guard Alexey Shved.

Against Spain, Shved played just seven minutes on his way to goose eggs in the points and assists category. Considering the 23-year-old combo guard came into the matchup averaging 15.7 points and 8.3 assists for these Olympics, his attempt to join Club Trillion nearly came at the least opportune time for his country.

So while there's almost zero chance that the Russian bench turns in another virtuoso performance, there is even less of a chance of Kirilenko and Shved combining to score eight points with a berth in the gold-medal game on the line.

Spain's guards can't find the bottom of the bucket

Despite the Spanish national team's abundance of backcourt talent, it hasn't resulted in top-level performances so far in London.

Of Spain's top four guards, only Jose Calderon is shooting above 40 percent from the field.

The remaining guards, Juan-Carlos Navarro, Sergio Llull and Fernando San Emeterio, all have a shot percentage below 35 and have been nothing short of dreadful.

Everyone knew coming into London that Spain's biggest strength came from the Gasol brothers and Serge Ibaka, the team's overwhelming frontcourt trio. But no team can come out playing three on five every time down the court and expect to win.

If Spain's guards struggle for the seventh consecutive game, Russia will easily stay in striking distance throughout the contest.

Russia already beat Spain

An upset is anomaly caused by a myriad of extenuating circumstances that no one in the viewing audience expects.

Fridzon dropping 24 points and looking like J.J. Redick circa 2006 as Russia comes back from a 17-point deficit was an upset.

But if Russia beats the second-ranked Spaniards for a second time in a week Friday, that's not an upset.

That's simply a team taking advantage of its matchup strengths and beating an under-performing team. To call a second Russian victory an upset is an insult to the players and the job coach David Blatt has done rebuilding Russia's program.

If Russians march on to the gold medal game, it's simply a case of one elite international squad taking down another elite team. And isn't that the purpose of Olympic competition in the first place?