Olympic Basketball 2012: Predictions for Each Game in the Medal Round

For those who haven't yet been paying attention to Olympic basketball, it's time to tune in now.

The medal round for the men's teams begins Wednesday with four quarterfinal matchups: Brazil vs. Argentina, the United States vs. Australia, France vs. Spain and Russia vs. Lithuania.

Team USA enters the medal round as the only undefeated team in pool play, having gone 5-0 against France, Tunesia, Nigeria, Lithuania and Argentina.

They're clearly the gold-medal favorites heading into the next stage.

The Americans should breeze through their quarterfinal matchup against Australia, but awaiting in the semifinals will be one of two tough teams in Brazil or Argentina. A gold medal matchup against Spain or Russia wouldn't be any easier.

Who's taking home the gold on Sunday? Who's walking away empty-handed? Here's one man's best guess.

Russia vs. Lithuania (Quarterfinals)

This first quarterfinal matchup should be a doozy, despite Lithuania's fourth-place finish in Group A pool play.

Lithuania put the biggest scare into Team USA throughout the opening games, with the Americans needing a fourth-quarter comeback to escape with a five-point victory.

Linas Kleiza of the Toronto Raptors leads the Lithuanian team with nearly 16 points and six rebounds per game, but he'll need some help from his teammates against the Russians, who finished first in Group B.

Led by soon-to-be Minnesota Timberwolves teammates Andrei Kirilenko and Alexey Shved (roughly 30 points and 10 rebounds per game combined), the Russians have been dangerous offensively, especially with ball movement and three-point shooting.

They've also sported the second stingiest defense in the Olympics (behind Brazil), only allowing their opponents to score 71.8 points per game.

The Lithuanians won't go down easy against the Russians, but expect Russia to advance.

RESULT: Russia defeats Lithuania, 81-74

France vs. Spain (Quarterfinals)

France surprisingly finished second in Group A despite their opening game blowout by the Americans, but a first-round matchup against Spain won't be much of a reward.

Spain and Brazil entered their final game of pool play against each other with the understanding that the losing team actually benefited, by virtue of avoiding a potential Team USA matchup until the gold medal game.

The Spaniards entered the fourth quarter with a nine-point lead, but managed to lose, 88-82, after getting outscored by 15 in the fourth.

If Joakim Noah hadn't sat out of these Olympics due to injury, this France-Spain matchup would have been much more intriguing. Without Noah, the French don't have the size and skill on the interior to match up with Spain's Gasol brothers and Serge Ibaka.

Expect the Spanish team to win handily against France and advance to the semifinals.

RESULT: Spain defeats France, 91-78

Brazil vs. Argentina (Quarterfinals)

This may be the most entertaining first-round matchup in medal play, featuring two of the top five scorers in these Olympics, Argentina's Luis Scola and Manu Ginobili.

Argentina will need to find ways to neutralize Brazil's powerful frontcourt combination of Nene, Tiago Splitter and Anderson Varejao, while keeping Brazil's leading scorer, Leandro Barbosa, in check as well.

The Scola-Ginobili duo shouldn't have any problem scoring against Brazil, despite the fact Brazil allowed the fewest points per game from opponents during pool play. It's Argentina's defense that's the question.

After getting blistered in the second half by Team USA in their final game of pool play, Argentina looks vulnerable to a team with a multitude of offensive weapons.

Unfortunately for Argentina, that's just what Brazil cooked up in these Olympics.

RESULT: Brazil defeats Argentina, 85-81

United States vs. Australia (Quarterfinals)

Australia's Patty Mills (of the San Antonio Spurs) may be the second-highest scorer in the Olympics—yes, even higher than Kevin Durant—but the Americans should have little trouble dispatching the Australians in this final quarterfinal game.

Australia did hand Russia its only loss of pool play, and kept it close against Brazil and Spain in their matchups, too. They're not to be taken lightly by any means.

They simply don't have the depth, speed, or talent to match up with Team USA for a 40-minute game.

Look at Team USA's last pool play game against Argentina. The Argentines trailed by only one point at halftime, but the Americans' relentlessness, spurred by LeBron James, overwhelmed Argentina in the third quarter and broke the game open.

Even if Australia keeps it close for a quarter or a half, expect the same to happen here.

RESULT: United States defeats Australia, 109-81

Spain vs. Russia (Semifinals)

This should be an absolute slobberknocker of a semifinal matchup.

Spain and Russia met once in the preliminary round, with the Russians holding onto a 77-74 victory, but that score indicates just how easily that game could have swayed either way in the fourth quarter.

To oversimplify this matchup a bit, it largely boils down to Spain's size against Russia's shooting and guard play. If the Gasol brothers and Ibaka can get deep into the post and unleash their fury on the rim, the Russians won't have much of a chance to advance.

If Kirilenko, Timofey Mozgov and Sasha Kaun can adequately protect the paint, on the other hand, the Spanish could be on the outside looking in on the gold medal game.

This one will almost undoubtedly come down to the wire, but Spain should emerge victorious this time around.

RESULT: Spain defeats Russia, 86-83

Brazil vs. United States (Semifinals)

Here's where it starts getting real for Team USA in its quest for gold.

In its exhibition against Team USA in Washington, D.C., Brazil proved that it isn't going to roll over in shock and awe against the Americans. The Brazilians are not going to be asking for pictures with Kobe Bryant before the game, suffice it to say.

Brazil has the size with Nene, Splitter and Varejao to flummox Team USA, especially if Tyson Chandler gets in foul trouble (a 95 percent certainty at this point).

If and when Chandler gets into foul trouble, and Coach Mike Krzyzewski ignores all reason by sticking with a small lineup, Team USA could struggle against the Brazilians.

This likely won't be a blowout, but the combination of Kevin Durant and James will still be too much for the Brazilians to handle, as the duo proved in the third quarter against Argentina.

RESULT: United States defeats Brazil, 95-87

Russia vs. Brazil (Bronze Medal Game)

Neither Russia nor Brazil will be thrilled to be competing for a bronze medal instead of a gold, but seeing as the loser in this one goes home empty-handed, they'll both be giving it their all.

If Russia majorly struggles against Spain in the semifinals, this game against Brazil likely won't be much easier. The Brazilians present the same size issues as the Spaniards for opponents, and Russia will need its interior defense clicking on all cylinders to survive here.

However, if the Brazilians' frontcourt can't get going, that's too much pressure for Barbosa and his backcourt counterparts to handle.

Without a defensive stopper on the wing like Andre Iguodala of Team USA or Nicolas Batum of France, Brazil could struggle containing Kirilenko, which would spell almost certain doom.

If this comes down to a one-possession game, I'm taking Russia and coach David Blatt every time.

RESULT: Russia defeats Brazil, 79-77

United States vs. Spain (Finals)

By virtue of Spain losing against Brazil in its final exhibition game, we can have the seemingly predestined gold-medal matchup between Team USA and Spain, a rematch of the gold-medal game from Beijing four years ago.

Unfortunately, this rematch is missing one critical factor for the Spaniards: Ricky Rubio.

If Rubio hadn't torn his ACL back in March and served as the starting point guard for Spain this summer, this game would be an entirely different story. As a 17-year-old, Rubio held his own against the Americans in Beijing and kept the game close until a late spurt from the Americans, led by Bryant.

Spain's size is expected to be a factor against the Americans, who lack conventional big men behind Chandler, and it should allow Spain to keep the game close throughout.

There's only one problem for Spain, however. How do they stop the never-ending assault from James, Durant, Carmelo Anthony and the rest of Team USA's guards and wings?

Spain has the talent to upset Team USA if it plays near-flawlessly and pressure the Americans into half court situations.

Without Rubio, that task becomes that much more challenging.

RESULT: United States defeats Spain, 105-89