Why an NHL Expansion into Hamilton Would NOT Spell the End of the Buffalo Sabres

When writing about NHL expansion to Canada, in particular to the Hamilton area, a topic that frequently arises is the territorial compensation issue because on either side of Hamilton is Buffalo and Toronto.  Of the two cities Buffalo is the most sensitive.

Tom Golisano, the owner of the Buffalo Sabres has publicly stated that an NHL team in Hamilton means the end of the Buffalo Sabres.  It has also been speculated as recently as early December of 2008 that he will sell the team. 

The Buffalo Bills are already rumoured to be on their way permanently to Toronto when Ralph Wilson dies.  A corollary to this story is that if Hamilton gets an NHL franchise, the Sabres can't survive and will leave too.

Before examining the truth of such speculation some municipal history is required.

In 1953, the cities of Buffalo and Toronto were comparable urban messes, just two of the many 1,000,000 plus areas of North America.

Then the Province of Ontario forced a merger of Toronto and its surrounding regions.  The result was spectacular growth, perhaps unequalled to anywhere else in North America.

Toronto went from being comparable to Buffalo and similar cities to becoming the Canadian equivalent of a combination of New York - Los Angeles.  Buffalo remained Buffalo.

Since then Buffalo has been overshadowed by its neighbour to the north and constantly seeks the vast resources that have been developed there.

For example, the local PBS station is now known as Buffalo-Toronto and conducts extensive fund raising there.  In football, the Buffalo Bills have a large Canadian contingent of season ticket holders and one game a year is designated as Canada day. 

The distance between Buffalo and Toronto is approximately 100 miles with Hamilton lying about half way between.  Popular myth states that the region is not big enough for three teams.

Will Buffalo be hurt if the NHL puts a team in Hamilton?  Certainly.  But Buffalo is so dazzled by its northern neighbour it fails to see what is around it.

73 miles east of Buffalo is Rochester, a city of over 1,000,000 people.  Beyond that is the Syracuse region, a distance approximately 150 miles from Buffalo where another 700,000 people live.  To the west is Erie, Pennsylvania where another 300,000 people reside.

In addition, even with a Hamilton franchise, Buffalo will likely still retain the North Lake Erie shore market of southern Ontario, stretching from Niagara Falls half way to Detroit.

Probably this entire market has three to four million people within its borders.  Are all these people hockey haters or paupers, too poor to purchase tickets and merchandise?

It is not unusual to see buses from Rochester in the Toronto Blue Jays' parking lot.  Bus shopping trips for seniors to Erie are organized in Toronto.  So the distance is not insurmountable.

If Quebec and Winnipeg get back in the NHL, if they are smart, they will probably have to market in the Maritimes and Saskatchewan, distances far greater than the region around Buffalo.

Another asset that Buffalo possesses is its arena, one of the finest in the NHL with a seating capacity far above the NHL median of 18,000.  It has more seats than Vancouver's arena.  And if Hamilton joins the NHL, Buffalo will get a generous compensation package.

What if the NHL and NFL were to expand to Rochester?  Does that too mean the end of the Sabres and Bills? 

While there is a remote possibility that a Hamilton franchise means the end of the Sabres, probably the worst effect will be that Buffalo must shift the direction of its marketing. 

Expansion to Hamilton will probably mean not the death of the Sabres but the arousal of a team from lazy marketing.