UFC on FOX 4 Fight Card: Final Predictions for the Main Card

The fourth edition of the UFC on Fox is live Saturday night, with two light heavyweight tilts headlining the card. 

In the co-main event, former champ Lyoto Machida will meet Ultimate Fighter winner Ryan Bader in a title elimination bout, with the winner possibly even earning a title shot. Bader, primarily a wrestler, will have his style contrasted with the striking brilliance that karate master Machida brings.

In the main attraction, former champion Mauricio Rua will fight Brandon Vera in a potential top contender's bout. Both men are gifted strikers with underrated ground games, which could make this fight a lot closer than people are giving it credit for.

Here are the final predictions for all four main-card bouts.

DaMarques Johnson vs. Mike Swick

Kicking off the main card, a fight that just got promoted to the Fox portion of the event, will be a welterweight scrap between returning Mike Swick and DaMarques Johnson. Heavyweights Ben Rothwell and Travis Browne were supposed to meet, but an injury prevented this bout from making the final card.

Swick will be returning to the Octagon after over two years of dealing with injuries and illness. Swick is a solid striker with knockout power to put away any man.

His two most recent fights have been losses, but he had been dealing with a mystery ailment that ate away at his muscle mass. These losses were to Dan Hardy (I told you it was a long time ago) and Paulo Thiago.

Johnson, meanwhile, has kept very busy since 2011. In fact, this will be his fifth fight since then. 

In that time, Johnson has defeated Mike Guymon and Clay Harvison, while falling to Amir Sadollah and John Maguire. Johnson has decent submission ability and powerful hands, but I don't see any area where he will expose Swick.

Swick will find his range, use his power and put away Johnson with strikes.

Prediction: Swick def. Johnson via knockout

Joe Lauzon vs. Jamie Varner

In an important lightweight affair, fan favorite Joe Lauzon meets former WEC champ Jamie Varner to move closer to the 155-lb gold.

Lauzon is a dangerous ground fighter with underrated hands and impressive toughness. Despite being knocked out in his latest outing by Anthony Pettis, Lauzon put together two impressive wins over Curt Warburton (with a nasty kimura) and Melvin Guillard.

Lauzon will hold a better submission game, but he must deal with the wrestling of his opponent.

Varner is a strong wrestler that relies on using his striking to progress the fight. Varner returned to the UFC in his latest bout to knockout hot prospect Edson Barboza with jaw-shattering punches. 

In the midst of this three-fight win streak, it must be seen that this is a good matchup for Varner. But I expect Octagon experience to be a big factor, giving Lauzon the edge.

Prediction: Lauzon def. Varner via decision

Lyoto Machida vs. Ryan Bader

Lyoto Machida and Ryan Bader will go to war tonight, with contrasting styles in their metaphorical holsters.

Bader is on a two-fight win streak since losing his first two fights of his career. He knocked out Jason Brilz to get back on track, followed by his signature decision win over Quinton "Rampage" Jackson.

Bader is a power wrestler who has good power in his hands. He will want to get this fight down, though, as Machida is the much better striker.

Machida is fighting for the first time since unsuccessfully challenging Jon Jones for his UFC title. Coming into that fight, Machida had crane kicked Randy Couture into retirement, providing a highlight reel for all eternity. 

I expect that Machida will use his elusive style to fight of takedown attempts from Bader. During one of his signature bull rushes, Machida will tag Bader and put him away with strikes.

Prediction: Machida def. Bader via knockout 

Mauricio Rua vs. Brandon Vera

With title implications on the line, Brandon Vera and Mauricio Rua will meet to move a step closer to glory.

Rua, who is coming off the best fight I have ever seen in MMA, has lost two of his last three. He lost his title to Jones and dropped a close decision to Henderson, but he earned redemption in the form of a knockout against Forrest Griffin.

His aggressive striking and tough jaw will make him the favorite in standup exchanges, though Vera is very good at striking as well.

Vera, who not long ago found himself out of a job, was brought back after finding out Thiago Silva failed a drug test in his win over Vera. Since then, Vera has had only one fight, which was a close unanimous decision over Eliot Marshall.

Rua is a different type of animal, though, which will see Vera overwhelmed. Expect a knockout early.

Prediction: Rua def. Vera via knockout