Olympic Standings 2012: Bold Predictions for Final Day 5 Medal Count

During the Olympics thus far, China and the United States have been neck and neck, as far as medals are concerned.

On Day 3, China got a big leg up when the men's gymnastics team won the all-around competition. But on Day 4, the U.S. quickly made up for it when the women won the gold in the same category. 

Most recently, China got a big boost from swimmer Ye Schiwen, who created a whirlwind of controversy when she won the 200-meter IM on Tuesday. Doping accusations dogged her immediately following her big win, which came shortly after she also won the gold in the 400-meter IM.

According to the Associated Press, suspicion started brewing when Schiwen swam her final 50 meters faster than gold medalist Ryan Lochte swam his in the same event. 

But a gold is a gold, and most likely, Shiwen won hers fair and square—and she has been a big part of helping China earn an Olympics-leading 13 gold medals thus far. Overall, China and the U.S. have surged far ahead of the pack and are tied with 23 total medals apiece.

Here are some predictions for how the medal count will shake out on Tuesday. You can see full updated medal standings here.

The U.S. Will Medal Twice in the Gymnastics Individual All-Around Competition 

The U.S. men's gymnastic squad failed miserably during the team all-around competition. There's no denying that. The Americans choked, and their biggest assets—particularly John Orozco—crumbled under the pressure. China, meanwhile, did the opposite, improving upon a sixth-place performance in the qualifier to take the gold yet again. 

But after watching the way the U.S. women's team rebounded from a poor qualifying performance and took the team gold for the first time since 1996 on Tuesday, the men will feel inspired. So inspired, in fact, that Danell Leyva—who finished first all-around during qualifying—and Orozco, who finished fourth, will actually be ready to impress this time.

It's already a given that Leyva will medal. He'll win the gold and Orozco—despite the many falls and missteps he endured during the team competition—will pull it together and win the bronze. China, meanwhile, will not medal at all, and Russia's David Belyavskiy will earn the silver. 

China Will Have the Lead at the End of Day 5—But Not for Long

Even if China still trumps the U.S. in gold at the end of Day 5—China stands to medal in table tennis on Wednesday, and even if the U.S. wins the gold in gymnastics, China will still be ahead in total golds—it won't be for long. 

Day 6, not Day 5, will be a huge day for the U.S. On Thursday, Ryan Lochte and Michael Phelps will (most likely) both be swimming for gold in the men's 200-meter individual medley. Lochte will also be swimming in the 200-meter backstroke finals, and teen sensation Missy Franklin will swim in the 100-meter freestyle finals, where she'll contend for the gold.

On top of that, the U.S. women's gymnastics team takes center stage on Thursday for their own individual all-around competition, where Gabby Douglas and Aly Raisman will give the Americans much more than a fleeting chance at more gold. 

If the U.S. sweeps all of those events, that's four more golds. If everything goes America's way on Wednesday and Thursday, it could very well be tied with—and even ahead of—China in terms of gold by the beginning of Day 7. 

Nobody Will Catch Up to Either China or the U.S.

Maybe that's not an incredibly groundbreaking prediction. After all, as it stands, Japan (13 total) is 10 medals behind China and the U.S., and France (11 medals) is 12 behind.

Given the big medal events still to come—swimming, gymnastics, basketball—America and China are going to have ample opportunities for gold. It will take upsets of epic proportions to rob the U.S. of gold in women's and men's basketball, and both the U.S. and China will be front-runners in men's and women's gymnastics medal events going forward.

This is now a two-man race, and it will stay that way. China's and the U.S.'s overall leads are insurmountable. But at the very end of it all, here's a bold prediction: The U.S. will have more medals—and more gold medals—than China.