Who Could Fill the Colorado Rockies' Rotation?

With the news coming out that Jeff Francis will be undergoing shoulder surgery, costing him 2009 (according to MLB Network), the Rockies rotation suddenly looks awfully unstable.

Aaron Cook, Ubaldo Jimenez, and Jason Marquis sit atop of things, but after that they have numerous options to fill the last two spots. Let’s take a look at those options and if any of them could hold fantasy value:

Jorge de la Rosa - He is sporting a career ERA of 5.55 over 404.0 innings, a far from inspiring number. How about that 1.65 career WHIP?  He posted a significantly better number in 2008, at 1.46, but is that really the type of pitcher anyone wants to target?

I don’t think so. He has some strikeout potential, with a career minor league K/9 of 8.1, but considering his minor league WHIP was 1.36, he’s never truly going to be a pitcher I’d deem usable.

Verdict: Avoid

Greg Smith - His rookie season got off to a tremendous start, bringing a lot of hope for fantasy owners.  Just look at his first two months:

• April: 2-1, 2.73 ERA, 33.0 IP
• May: 1-3, 2.97 ERA, 30.1 IP

Things took a turn for the worse after that, with September being the only month he posted an ERA under 4.50 (3.82 in 30.2 IP). That certainly paints a much cloudier picture.

A career minor league K/9 of 7.8 is a bit deceiving, as the number declined as he climbed to the upper levels, culminating with a 5.8 K/9 in 52.1 innings at Triple-A in ‘07. 

He may not necessarily be as bad as his 5.18 second half ERA, but he’s certainly not as good as his 3.43 first half, especially now pitching in Coors instead of the friendly confines of Oakland.

Verdict: Avoid

Jason Hirsh - Long considered a top prospect in both the Astros and Rockies systems, Hirsh is a pitcher with plenty of potential, though arm troubles derailed him in 2008.  Back in 2006, he posted an ERA in the Pacific Coast League of 2.10, to go along with a 13-2 record, showing just how good he could be.

Since then, things have been on a serious decline, posting a career major league ERA of 5.32 in 165.2 innings over parts of three seasons.

As recently as 2007, Baseball America had him ranked as the Rockies No. 3 prospect saying, “He’s more about polish than power, going after hitters with a 91-93 mph fastball, a late-breaking slider and an effective changeup he’ll throw in any count. He has made huge strides with his slider and his ability to change speeds since signing in 2003.”

Given his size (6'8"), it would not be surprising to see him put things together a little bit later.  For whatever reason, that tends to be what happens. He’s shown he has the talent and now he just has to pick up the pieces. That means he’s someone I’d considering watching.

Verdict: Watch closely and pounce if he gets off to a good start

Franklin Morales - He showed promise in 2007, with a 3.43 ERA over 8 starts, but things were drastically different in 2008. He posted a 6.39 over 25.1 innings in the majors and a 5.47 ERA over 110.1 innings in Triple-A. It is tough to completely write him off after one bad season, considering the numbers he posted from 2005 through 2007.

He has a career minor league K/9 of 9.1, which looks good, but also a BB/9 of 5.3 and WHIP of 1.51. That shows me that despite the upside, there were red flags even with the positive performances. Granted, the WHIP was influenced by his 1.72 in ‘08, but the walks were always a problem.

If he’s constantly going to be issuing free passes, it is going to cost him. Plus, given his ‘08 performance, he’s going to have to put up a blow out performance in Spring Training to break camp with the team. Even if that happens, he’s too big of a risk with all those walks.

Verdict: Avoid

Greg Reynolds - The teams first round pick in 2006, he’s got a ton of potential, but like Hirsh, he is a tall pitcher who could take more time to develop. He got a look at the major league level last season, posting an ugly 2-8 record, 8.13 ERA and 1.76 WHIP.

Of course, his minor league numbers are much better (3.11 ERA and 1.31 WHIP), but he has always lacked the strikeout potential, with a K/9 of 5.6.  Also, a lot of his minor league numbers are buoyed by a lights out Double-A performance in 2007, with a 1.42 ERA and 0.81 WHIP over 50.2 innings.

His control was impeccable, at 1.6 BB/9, which I don’t think is truly believable.

He’s not likely to start the season in the majors, but it is not impossible to see him return mid season and enjoy significantly better results. I wouldn’t touch him right now, but he’s certainly worth eying. He’s got the talent, it’s just a matter of showing it.

Verdict: Keep an eye on him, but keep your distance early on

Josh Fogg & Glendon Rusch - We all know these guys, but I figured I’d at least mention them here. I wouldn’t consider them under any circumstances.

So, there you have it. Are there any other potential pitchers you could see filling the last two spots? Would you consider grabbing any of these guys for your fantasy roster?

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