Reality Bites: Calling for Sanity in the Summer of 2010

How quickly things change in less than half a season. During the summer of 2008, some teams (namely the New York Knicks and New Jersey Nets) were unabashedly gearing up for the summer of 2010 when the crop of talent on the free agent market makes players like Dirk Nowitzki and Joe Johnson second-tier attractions.

The phrases "shed salary" and "cap space" are almost universally used with 2010 in mind. Nevermind the level of talent and the player's production—teams want expiring contracts.

There is no clearer illustration than the Knicks-Clippers trade when Cuttino Mobley was diagnosed to have a career-ending heart condition (physical condition, unlike T-Mac). The Knicks went ahead and sent their leading scorer away on that trade because it gave them...Anyone? That's right, cap space in 2010.

With the trade deadline approaching, more and more deals are either inked or in the works with financial reasons as the primary concerns. When Raef LaFrentz is a more coveted asset than a resurgent Vince Carter, something is amiss.

Unfortunately, the world, and indeed the league, is a much different place from it was half a year ago. With the mood in Wall Street (and Detroit) resembling that of a funeral parlor and comparisons to the Great Depression being bandied about, it is safe to assume things are not going to remain the same.

Much as we like to assume otherwise, the NBA is not recession-proof. Half full (or half empty for your pessimists out there) arenas testify to that.

When Commissioner David Stern announced what many have been speculating, that the salary cap would most likely fall, salary shedding no longer applies to the summer of 2010 alone.

Not every salary dump is made with LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, or Chris Bosh in mind. Teams are businesses at the end of the day, and that reality is sinking in.

Last season, the Lakers made the blockbuster Pau Gasol trade that catapulted the Lakers into the Western Conference finals while the Grizzlies got "the biggest expiring contract we could find".

This season, Mitch Kupchak engineered the somewhat low-impact (but equally amazing in the case of Vlad Rad) trades that basically helped the Lakers shed salary this season and in the 2009-2010 campaign.

Vladimir Radmanovic for two players not expected to make an impact nor return after their contracts expire. Chris Mihm for a pick so protected the Lakers might as well ask for a pack of M&Ms.

If the second-most valuable franchise, according to Forbes, is shedding salary, something has changed in the league. Granted the Lakers will spend most of those savings in offering a pay raise and not-too-big-a-pay-cut to Trevor Ariza and Lamar Odom respectively, it is not the kind of trade you would expect Mitch Kupchak to engineer.

For the other 28 less-wealthy franchises, things get gloomier. The New Orleans Hornets, last season's darlings and still a legitimate playoff contender, would have sent their starting 7'1" center to the Oklahoma City Thunder for two lesser big men whose value to the Hornets are their expiring contracts.

Unlike the NY Knicks however, no Hornets fans are speculating that any of the marquee free agents are the motivation for trading Tyson Chandler away, rather it is simply a cost-cutting measure. Period.

The Sacramento Kings are known to be actively shopping almost everyone on their roster except Kevin Martin (who probably could be had for the right price) and taking back almost nothing but expiring contracts.

Brad Miller and John Salmons, two of their best players other than the aforementioned Martin, are traded to the Bulls for Andres Nocioni and two bodies who will probably not come back next season.

Not too long ago, if the Kings (OK, maybe not the Kings) pulled off a deal like that, their fan base will be salivating over the idea of having one (if not two) of the big three marquee free agents coming to town in 2010. Nary a rumble about 2010 when that deal was inked.

Maybe the Maloof brothers' reputation preceded them. Maybe it's the economy.

With the salary cap most likely coming down, is it probable that teams will have enough to bid for two max level contracts and still build a team of quality role players around them?

Fans from the Knicks to the Bulls and even the Heat have been fantasizing and building their dream team that basically involves some of their existing quality role players and LeBron and either Wade or Bosh.

As it stands, the odds of it materializing seems to be dwindling unless those marquee superstars take less than maximum money for a shot at the ring, or teams a lot of faith in their unknown role players.

Free agents hitting the market this year are likely to provide a good proxy of things to come with no one other than perhaps Kobe Bryant expected to command the same opulent contracts that top players and some not-so-top players (*cough* Stephon Marbury) have been getting in the past.

Supporting stars, even those as talented as Rashard Lewis or Andrei Kirilenko, would not expect the same salaries had their contracts been renewed today, even though they have been productive for their teams.

I read on ESPN.com that some 150 players could be changing addresses in 2010, and I will wager that less than half of them will get pay raises at that time.

In 2010, unless a miraculous economic recovery takes place, the story is likely to remain the same. With falling attendance and dwindling corporate sponsorships, all this shedding is not going to come back in the form of an uber team that is the stuff of a new dynasty.

Simply put, there is too little money chasing too many talents in 2010.

Fans who are waiting for their respective teams to roll out a starting lineup of unprecedented greatness built on free agency will be sadly disappointed.