NBA Free Agents 2012: Big-Name Pickups Who Will Disappoint in 2012

Given all the teams that were clamoring over guys like Ray Allen the minute free agency began, you would've thought he was a 25- or 26-year-old hitting the open market for the first time.

Such is the case when there aren't a lot of affordable options on the table and teams are scrambling to fill big holes in the only way they can. Overpaying and enormous expectations have thus become the norm, even when it comes to veterans entering the twilight of their careers. 

Here's a look at some of the big-name free agents this summer who are unlikely to live up to their billings in 2012. 

Ray Allen

Granted, Ray Allen is a shooter, so it's not like there's been enormous wear and tear on his body over the course of his 16-year career. And he did shoot as well last year as he ever has in his career, especially from three-point range, where he shot a career-high 45.3 percent. 

But anyone who thinks he's going to shoot the lights out at the AmericanAirlines Arena next year is in for a reality check. Regardless of how well he's been shooting over the last couple of years or how young his legs seem to be, he's going to be 37 when the 2012-13 season starts, and he's coming off ankle surgery to remove bone spurs. 

There has to be some room for error with him because, contrary to popular perception, Allen is getting old. And though he handled 34 minutes per game like a champ last year, someone with 16 years of experience under his belt isn't going to be able to sustain that pace and still be as impactful as he has been for the last few years.

Allen most likely won't have to log so many minutes next season coming off the bench for Miami. But expecting him to sustain the pace and the stats he's been putting up for the last couple of years is a reach. 

Jason Kidd

His DWI arrest isn't the only reason Knicks fans shouldn't expect Kidd to totally fill Jeremy Lin's big shoes in New York. Kidd, like Allen, is getting up there in age and, sooner or later, that's going to take a toll.

This was still a necessary pickup for the Knicks, especially considering the way things have gone with Lin and the Rockets over the last several days. But whereas Lin is a young kid with enormous potential and an entire fan base behind him, Kidd is a 39-year-old veteran with off-court issues and declining production.

In the 2009-10 season, Kidd played 36 minutes per game and put up 10.3 points, 9.1 assists and 5.6 rebounds. Since then, each of those marks has declined steadily. Last season with the Mavericks, he registered just 6.2 points, 5.5 assists and 4.1 rebounds while battling an array of injuries.

Not only is Kidd going to have to adjust to a new coach and a new system in New York, but he's going to have to endure yet another year of wear and tear on his body. This was a necessary addition for the Knicks given the uncertainties surrounding their backcourts, but it definitely wasn't an upgrade over Lin, whether Kidd is a veteran or not.  

Jeremy Lin

And yet, having said all that, here I am taking Lin down a peg, too. Here's the issue with Lin: He worked out well—on the Knicks. And there's no guarantee he's going to have the same type of impact on the Rockets, assuming he ends up with them (and given the most recent reports out of the Knicks' camp, he's going to).

As Stephen A. Smith said on Monday's edition of SportsCenter, Lin is good, but he's not a star. He hasn't even proven what he can do yet, despite starting 25 games for New York last season. And a lot of money and expectations are being staked on a very small sample size in which Lin happened to look really, really good.

Could Lin be the same player for the Rockets over the next three years that he was in 25 starts with New York? Possibly. But assuming the roster he's playing with in Houston is the roster it has right now (in other words, assuming the Dwight Howard trade doesn't go through), he's going to be expected to pull off the same magic with an incredibly young and inexperienced group of players. And he'll be expected to do it coming off knee surgery.

There are so many mitigating factors with regards to Lin that it's impossible to conclusively say he can revitalize the Rockets the same way he did with the Knicks. Houston fans are better off just curbing their expectations and taking whatever Lin brings to the table.