Words with Frenz AFC East Mailbag, July 6 Edition

Camp battles. Fantasy predictions.

Offensive balance. Rookie impact. Undrafted rookie impact.

More camp battles. More fantasy predictions.

Yup, it's that time of year alright. The season is approaching, and fan questions are beginning to reach their peak in both volume and diversity—though more the former than the latter.

So let's open up some tweets!

"

@ErikFrenz You really think Hernandez has a realistic shot at 100 receptions this year? #fantasytweet

— Del (@mrdeadlier) July 5, 2012"

Thanks for the question, Del.

I'm not much of a fantasy expert, but I know this much: Wes Welker and Rob Gronkowski are the top two targets in the offense. Unless one of the two gets injured or is ineffective, Aaron Hernandez remains the third option in the passing game.

Beyond that, he's also had a hard time staying healthy and has missed two games in each of his first two seasons. 

For Hernandez to tally over 100 receptions, in addition to staying healthy, he'd have to outshine either Welker or Gronkowski, or the Patriots would have to throw it on nearly every down. 

That being said, I'd expect him to be a solid tight end in most fantasy formats, especially in points-per-reception leagues (even though I don't think he'll cross the 100 plateau).

"

@ErikFrenz will shonn greene platoon with others or will he be THE GUY for the #jets this year?

— Hesechiah (@TheRemer) July 5, 2012"

Thanks for the question, Darth Sidious—erm, Hesechiah...

My guess is that Shonn Greene will be part of a platoon at running back that will include rookie running back Terrance Ganaway, third-year back Joe McKnight, second-year back Bilal Powell and yes, even quarterback Tim Tebow. It all seems to be a part of the team getting back to the ground-and-pound philosophy under new offensive coordinator Tony Sparano.

In Sparano's four seasons as head coach of the Dolphins, the backs split carries rather evenly.

Take this into consideration: Dolphins running back Reggie Bush yielded over five yards per carry last year, but he still only carried the ball on 46.1 percent of Miami's rushing attempts. Daniel Thomas, on the other hand, averaged just 3.5 yards per carry, yet he earned 35.2 percent of the team's rush attempts.

Greene hasn't jumped off the page as an elite back, and he has earned a good deal of criticism as a result. While Sparano's system could help him realize his potential, as it did for Reggie Bush, he will likely be part of a committee of backs if Sparano's history of sharing the load is any indication.

"

@ErikFrenz 'Nother Pats rookie one: which rookie do you think will see the most snaps this year?

— Michael Talarski (@MikeET86) July 5, 2012"

Thanks, Michael.

My initial reaction to this question was linebacker Dont'a Hightower. He looks like the most NFL-ready prospect of the rookies. Defensive end Chandler Jones will need some time to get used to the NFL game, the exact role for defensive end Jake Bequette remains unclear and safety Nate Ebner will contribute on special teams.

But then, I remembered cornerback Alfonzo Dennard, the high-upside corner taken in the seventh round after character concerns caused his stock to plummet just days before the draft. How many snaps he gets is dependent on the success of the top three cornerbacks on the roster: Devin McCourty, Ras-I Dowling and Kyle Arrington.

Hightower, on the other hand, could get a lion's share of the workload regardless of how his peers perform. He is already one of the most versatile linebackers on the roster, according to NFL Films guru Greg Cosell, and he has the Bill Belichick gene in him after spending four years with Beli-buddy Nick Saban at Alabama. His role could only grow if linebacker Brandon Spikes misses time, as he has the past two seasons.

"

@ErikFrenz Out of all the #Dolphins receivers, which do you see having the best year in 2012? #WordsWithFrenz

— Alex Hall (@AlexKHall) July 5, 2012"

Thanks, Alex.

Davone Bess and Brian Hartline are the two receivers with the most recent track record for success. Chad Ochocinco is the only receiver with a long history of success, but that seems like a distant memory after 2011. The rest of the Dolphins receiving corps is unproven talent that is too young to make an educated guess on.

With that, I'll go with Bess, because I find him to be the best fit in the West Coast offense. His ability to create yards after catch will go a long way in helping him make an impact. Hartline has also been effective in that role, but he was more often the team's deep threat last season than he was a checkdown guy.

"

@ErikFrenz With players like Forston what undrafted player do you see making it this year and being successful for the Pats? #WordsWithFrenz

— Rob_0'Lay (@0_LayDX) July 5, 2012"

Thanks, Bob.

Two names come to mind: Ole Miss running back Brandon Bolden and Rutgers defensive end/outside linebacker Justin Francis. Both players are in a position to step in where others have left the fold—Bolden to occupy a spot vacated by BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Francis to occupy Mark Anderson's spot.

The difference between this year's undrafted free agents and the names I just mentioned is that the new guys offer something on special teams. That's a huge factor when predicting the roster, as Belichick places importance on striking balance with special teams players in the depth of the roster. Per Greg Bedard of the Boston Globe:

"

Belichick said the number of position players who also play special teams has to complement those core special teamers.

"You just have to strike a balance,’’ Belichick said. “You have to send somebody out there on the punt team, you have to send somebody out there to cover kickoffs, you have to send somebody out there to return them, so who is that going to be? You have to have somebody to back up your offensive and defensive starters, so who is that going to be? What’s the best balance?"

"

As far as being successful, I think any of the undrafted free agents should be a considerable success if they even make the roster.

"

@ErikFrenz Will the Bills have a higher percentage of passes or runs in 2012?

— Eli Nachmany (@EliNachmany) July 6, 2012"

Thanks, Eli, but there's just no way the Bills are going to run the ball more often thane they throw it.

In fact, only four teams ran the ball more often than they threw it last year: the Texans, Broncos, 49ers and Jaguars (the Dolphins split 50-50). 

Over the past two seasons, the Bills have trended further away from the running game.

When Chan Gailey took over as head coach, their attempts were split nearly 50-50 with 441 passes and 424 rushes. The very next year, they went wildly the other direction with 519 passes and 401 rushes.

While that may have had something to do with their 4-12 record, and trailing quite a bit, it had more than a little to do with Gailey's offensive philosophies. 2011 proved that, as the Bills went with 578 passes and 391 rushes. 

The Bills may not have the offensive firepower they're looking for—or, at least, that firepower hasn't emerged from within their roster yet—but that shouldn't stop them from spreading the ball around, even to their running backs in the passing game.

To be honest, they'd be wise to balance it out a bit with the emergence of running backs C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson.

Got room for one more.

"

@ErikFrenz How do you see the situation at WR2 shaping up? Is one player going to assert themselves or will we see a revolving door?

— Gary Davenport (@IDPManor) July 6, 2012"

Thanks, Gary.

I wrote about this a little bit yesterday, but it's worth touching on here.

The Bills should really hope it doesn't end up being a revolving door; that happened last year, and the talk of the town all offseason has been their lack of a true No. 2. They have a lot of options, but no one has stepped up to stake their claim to the spot just yet. 

Two receivers have been singled (doubled?) out as the front-runners for the No. 2 spot: Donald Jones and Derek Hagan.

Jones has been rumored to have the inside track, according to Joe Buscaglia of WGR 550 Sportsradio, and he earned it last year in camp. Hagan was taking snaps on the outside while Stevie Johnson nursed a groin injury. 

The camp battle could come down to those two, but with so many names and potential talent on the roster, don't be surprised if things change. The Bills drafted T.J. Graham with the hopes he could line up on the outside, but he hasn't picked up the playbook as quickly as they'd like. If that process accelerates, he could springboard the competition for the No. 2 spot.

This is an organic situation, but we'll be sure to keep you guys updated as news develops.

Alright, guys, that's all I have this week. Thanks for a battery of great questions! Further questions can be sent to me via Twitter at the link below.

Erik Frenz is the AFC East lead blogger for Bleacher Report. Be sure to follow Erik on Twitter and "like" the AFC East blog on Facebook to keep up with all the updates.