Boilermaker Breakdown (Feb. 14 at Iowa)

Purdue 49 – Iowa 45

If you were looking for a pretty game to watch on Valentine’s Day, this was not it.

Long possessions and solid defense by both clubs led to a very low-scoring affair. The teams combined to take only 90 shots and shot just over 14 percent from behind the arc. 

Purdue built a nine point advantage in the first half, but went cold after that. Their saving grace was trademark defense that held the Hawkeyes to 36 percent shooting. The Boilers forced several difficult shots, many coming as the shot clock was winding down. 

After the Hawks took a 41-39 lead late in the second half, the Boilers responded with a 10-4 run to close the game and take home the victory. 

A huge shot by JaJuan Johnson with about 80 seconds left in the game gave the visitors a three-point cushion, and his tap-back after a missed Chris Kramer shot allowed Kramer to get the rebound and the Boilers sealed it from the free-throw line.

One thing that was beautiful (to Boilermaker fans at least) was the return of Robbie Hummel to the court. While clearly rusty with his shot (he missed all five of his three-point attempts) his floor presence and defense were huge assets.

While earning no style points, Purdue does take home an always treasured Big Ten road win. They remain in striking distance of league leader Michigan State, who just happens to visit Mackey Arena Tuesday.

What the Boilers did well:

Defense – As mentioned above, the defense was outstanding. The in-your-face style Purdue plays has helped them in several games when their offense has not been that good. They gave the Hawks no room to breathe in this one.

Rebounding – How does JaJuan Johnson not record a board yet the Boilers win the rebounding battle by six? Every other player who got in the game, including Bobby Riddell, recorded at least one rebound. The guards did a great job on the glass, and Hummel’s four in only 24 minutes also helped.

Inside the Arc Shooting – JaJuan Johnson and E’Twaun Moore were deadly from close range, and the Boilers combined to shoot 63 percent inside the arc. Johnson still only took six shots, and needs to be a bigger focal point of the offense.

Where the Boilers struggled:

Three-point shooting – As I mentioned in the Penn State edition of the Breakdown, this has been a lingering problem. They missed 13 of the 16 threes they attempted. This has to improve if they have hopes of beating Michigan State.

Player of the Game

E’Twaun Moore – A rare double-double for a guard, as Moore dropped in 16 points (including the game-sealing final two free throws), and pulled down 10 huge rebounds.

E’Twaun went high for several rebounds and really played like a forward in this game, posting up defenders and taking the ball strong to the hoop.

Questions for the Future 

Can the Boilers shoot better from deep? 

They cannot shoot under 20 percent from long range and expect to beat State. Hopefully the home confines of Mackey will help in this department.

Can Hummel be more effective? 

While he was good on the glass and defensively, his shooting was way off, as he missed all of his threes, several of them by a large margin. He also missed both his free-throw attempts.

Even with him hitting the floor hard on two occasions, he popped back up and didn’t show any signs of pain. If he can practice with the team in the two days before the MSU game, it would really help him get back in the flow offensively.

Can Purdue beat a top tier team? 

Purdue has played four games against top 25 teams, Duke, Oklahoma, and two against Illinois– and hasn’t won a single one. They need to make a statement and prove they are capable of knocking off a top team. MSU is the perfect opportunity as the Spartans are ranked ninth in both polls and sixth in the RPI.

Where They Stand

Thanks to a big win by Wisconsin over Ohio State, Purdue sits tied with only Illinois for second place in the conference. They are two games back of Michigan State in the loss column.

Most NCAA tourney projections list Purdue as a No. 5 or 6 seed. If you are interested, a great website is the Bracket Project’s Bracket Matrix, which compiles NCAA projections from over 50 different sites, with links to those as well.  A link is listed below:

http://bracketproject.50webs.com/matrix.htm

Up Next and Prediction

Purdue has held its last two opponents to under 50 points, while the Spartans have held their last three under 50. The team that can get any offense going will probably be the victor in this game.

Raymar Morgan, arguably State’s most versatile player, is currently battling a case of walking pneumonia. He has not played in the last three games, although he did dress for their last game against Michigan.

With a week between the Michigan game and their trip to Mackey, Morgan will probably improve. However, he has not been at full strength since early January and will probably play limited minutes if he does go.

Kalin Lucas is the floor leader for MSU, and he has developed into one of the best point guards in the nation. If Purdue hopes to win, they must limit his effectiveness. Purdue does have one of the quickest guards in the league in Lewis Jackson to at least pressure Lucas.

Where MSU usually beats teams is on the glass, as they average a staggering 12 more rebounds a game than their opponents in conference play.

If Hummel is back to playing fully healthy, Purdue has all the pieces to match up well with Michigan State. 

This is the biggest game of the season for Purdue, and I think the pressure is more on the Boilers to get back into the conference race and lock up a bid for the NCAA tournament.

I have gone back and forth on this, but I think the Mackey crowd and the return of Hummel, along with Morgan being limited, will help Purdue squeak this one out.

Purdue 65 – Michigan State 64